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Crude Oil Collapsed Below $100PPB – Has The US FED Broken Inflation?

Commodities / Crude Oil Jul 07, 2022 - 08:32 PM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Commodities

On Tuesday, July 5th, Crude Oil collapsed very sharply, down over 10% near the lows, in an aggressive breakdown of the price. The $97.43 lows reached that day were more than -14% from recent highs (set on June 29, 2022) and more than -21% from highs set on June 14, 2022.

Consumer Discretionary Spending Likely To Fall Further

In a recent research article (published June 9, 2022: CRUDE OIL PRICE AND CONSUMER SPENDING – HOW THEY ARE RELATED), we shared a similar breakdown that took place in Crude Oil in 2009 and how tightening consumer spending often correlates with peaks in Crude Oil when crisis events happen.


Within that research article, I shared this chart highlighting the collapse in the Consumer Discretionary sector that preceded the downward collapse in Crude Oil. The interesting facet of this chart is we can see the inflationary price pressure in Crude Oil (and the general economy) countered by pressures put on consumers in the lower IYC price chart.

Consumers Lead The Global Economy – Watch IYC Closely

As prices rise, consumers are put under extreme pressure to keep their normal standard of living. As inflationary pressures continue, consumers make necessary sacrifices to manage their budgets – often going into debt in the process.

Eventually, this cycle breaks, and inflationary trends end. This is clearly evident on the chart below in July 2008 – as IYC, the Consumer Discretionary sector, collapsed by more than 27% before Crude Oil finally peaked and broke downward.

Since November 2021, IYC Has Fallen More Than -37%

This current Weekly Crude Oil & IYC Chart shows IYC has collapsed by more than -37% from the November 2021 highs – well beyond the -27% collapse in 2008 that preceded the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis event. Is the current collapse in IYC a sign that a broad global crisis event has already begun to unfold beneath all the news and hype? Will Crude Oil collapse below $75ppb as the global economy shifts away from inflationary price trends and bubbles burst?

The Deflationary Price Cycle Is Not Over Yet

If IYC falls below $55 in an aggressive downward price move, I would state the risks of a global deflationary price cycle (or extended recession) are still quite elevated. Currently, the $55 price level in IYC aligns with early 2019 price highs and reflects an extended price advance from the $12~$15 IYC price levels in 2008-09.

If the $55 IYC price level is breached to the downside, I expect the $37.50~$40.00 price level to become future support – as that price level reflects the COVID-19 event lows.

Still, these lower price targets represent an additional -32% decline in IYC and reflect a total of a -57% collapse in the Consumer Discretionary sector from the November 2021 peak levels. The potential target range of $37.50~$40.00 correlates with the 2008-09 GFC collapse range when IYC fell from $18 to lows near $8 (nearly -57%).

We are still very early in the shifting deflationary cycle phase after the US Fed started raising interest rates. Learn to protect and profit from this global event with my specialized investment solutions. Visit, www.thetechnicaltraders.com to learn more.

LEARN FROM OUR TEAM OF SEASONED TRADERS

In today’s market environment, it’s imperative to assess our trading plans, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. As professional technical traders, we always follow the price. At first glance, this seems very straightforward and simple. But emotions can interfere with a trader’s success when they buck the trend (price). Remember, our ego aside protecting our hard-earned capital is essential to our survival and success.

Successfully managing our drawdowns ensures our trading success. The larger the loss, the more difficult it will be to make up. Consider the following:

  • A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover.
  • A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover.
  • A 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply break even.

Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown:

  • A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks to a few months.
  • A 50% drawdown may take many years to recover.

Depending on a trader’s age, they may not have the time to wait nor the patience for a market recovery. Successful traders know it’s critical to keep drawdowns with reason, as most have learned this principle the hard way.

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Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several leading financial hubs like MarketOracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

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