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How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Alphabet Google GOOG Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023

Companies / Google Jan 04, 2023 - 08:35 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Companies

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).


Table Big Image - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Nov/AI-stocks-portfolio-25th.jpg

Google - GOOG - $97.6, EGF -12%, -4%, P/E 19.4

The daddy of online search with a 95% market share that has squashed all who tried to compete including Amazon and Microsoft, strong cash flow that in part gets plowed into bets such as Deep Mind and Boston Dynamics. The great soon to be forgotten bear market of 2022 delivered the mother of all buying opps on par with that of March 2020 in the No 1 stock on my list and the further it fell the more bearish the talking heads become, what did I do ? I bought more! And even now at 107% invested some 5.6% of my public portfolio I am NOT DONE! Though the stock at X19.4 is not exactly dirt cheap but a lot better than where I was selling at a year ago. EGF's of -12% and -4% point to more rough quarters ahead so I do not expect any moon shot attempt for the stock price for a several quarters, so there could be scope to accumulate more near the bear market low of $83. However all of this is noise compared to Google's long-term prospects for instance the Algo forecasts $224 in 3 years time which I consider achievable, $224 from $97 is a HUGE 130% Jump even if it may take longer than 3 years with the risks being to the upside. So far Google has actually not done anything that I was not expecting the stock to do as it cycles between FOMO over valuation and PANIC under valuations as my chart form June 2020 illustrates.Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!

Thus Google is primed to begin it's next multi-year advance that will likely see Google trade near it's all time high of $152 during 2023. I am glad I am 107% invested.

Perhaps Google will change it's name once more from from Alphabet to DEEPMIND! As Deep Mind is being integrated into the day to day operations of Google's various divisions making the corp run more efficiently, as we await the ultimately name change to SKYNET!

And briefly a history lesson on how Google does it's magic, In 2011 Google bought Motorola (maker of the popular Razr flip phones of the early 2000's) for $12.4 billion. Three years later Google sold Motorola to Lenova for $2.91 billion. A disaster? As MSM were reporting on at the time of the the huge loss that Google had suffered, so if one followed the MSM narrative one would have concluded to steer clear of Google in mid 2014 when the stock price was trading at $26 given how badly Google was apparently being run.

So why did Google buy a dying corporation that they would later sell for pennies on the dollar?

17,500 Patents granted plus 7.500 patents pending in the field of wireless communications. Thus when Google sold Motorola, they kept 80% of the patents that they used in their patents war against Apple and Microsoft to ensure that Android survives to become what it is today, the worlds No 1 smartphone operating system.

Furthermore after taking into account other spin offs from Motorola and use of over $6 billion of tax losses meant that the actual cost to Google for the 24,000 patents was just $650 million.

This article is an excerpt form my recent analysis on the current state of the embryonic stocks bull market Stocks Analysis Bonanza - GOOG, QCOM, ASML, TCHEY, BABA, BIDU, TSLA, WDC, RBLX, MGNI, COIN, BITCOIN CAPITULATION! that was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Lock it in now as $4 per month as this rises to $5 per month in th new year.

Also access to my extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1

Most recent analysis includes -

So for immediate first access to to all of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule:

  • UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023 - Complete
  • US House Prices Trend Forecast - 80%
  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 50%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
  • State of the Crypto Markets
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Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Lock in now as this increases to $5 per month in the new year.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your mega-trend investing analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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