Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Price Is Up $300 Since November – So What?!

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023 Jan 19, 2023 - 09:56 PM GMT

By: Kelsey_Williams



Advisors and marketers are ecstatic:…

“Nothing will be able to stop gold when it breaks to a new all-time high”  or “On the cusp of a breakout where gold can go up to $5000”  are two examples of recent exclamations about prospects for higher gold prices. The euphoria can be contagious.

I’m sure that makes gold bulls feel optimistic. After all, they have been passengers on an amusement ride that wasn’t what they expected. After being strapped in for a rocket launch, they found themselves on a roller coaster that was in the midst of a downward descent.


What is the significance of gold’s recent price spike? Below is a chart of gold prices for the past year…

Chart No. 1 : Gold Prices – 3 Year Historical Chart

Just prior to its recent price increase, gold had fallen $417 oz. from a high of $2043 to a low of $1626. In February 2020, barely three years ago, the price of gold was exactly the same – $1626.

February 2020 was just before the Covid pandemic. Since then we have experienced (in addition to the pandemic) a collapse and recovery in the financial markets, a global recession, war between Russia and Ukraine,  the highest CPI numbers in four decades, higher interest rates and another collapse in financial asset prices. Net of all this, the price of gold at $1626 oz. was right back where it started.

At its current price of $1895 oz., gold is exactly where it was two years ago at the end of 2020. For the past three years gold has closed out each year as follows: $1895, $1828, $1824.

Like riding a roller coaster, gold investors keep returning to the starting point.

Some additional perspective is helpful. Below is the same chart as above EXCEPT that the prices are adjusted for the effects of inflation…

Chart No. 2:  Gold Prices (inflation-adjusted) – 3 Year Historical Chart

Chart No. 2  paints a different picture from that seen in Chart No. 1.  In real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, the price of gold is in a steep decline dating back to July 2020. At its recent low of $1626 oz., the gold price was down $700 oz. or forty-three percent. 


In November 2009, the price of gold was $1175 oz.  After adjusting for the effects of inflation that have occurred since then, the corresponding price in today’s dollars is $1613 oz. which is at or near where gold traded just two months ago in November 2009.

Again, back to its starting point. Here is what that looks like on our final chart…

Chart No. 3:  Gold Prices (inflation-adjusted) – 13 Year Historical Chart


The price of gold is currently in a steep decline dating back to its high in August 2020. There is little or no justification for the expectation that gold will break upwards to new highs anytime soon. More likely, investors can expect a resumption of the downtrend and an eventual break to new lows below $1600 oz. (also see Demand For Gold – No New Highs and Gold And The Normalcy Bias)

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

By Kelsey Williams

Kelsey Williams is a retired financial professional living in Southern Utah.  His website, Kelsey’s Gold Facts, contains self-authored articles written for the purpose of educating others about Gold within an historical context.

© 2023 Copyright Kelsey Williams - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in