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Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023 Feb 18, 2023 - 10:38 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Apparently everyone assumes that a recession during 2023 is a done deal! However an analysis of recessions in terms of the US presidential election cycle suggests that a recession during 2023 is a very low probability event and that the actual recession may not materialise until 2024.


So 2023 could turn out to be economically stronger than most are imagining it to be, with weakness delayed until well into the second half of the year, thus implies to expect earnings surprises to the upside during Q1 and Q2..

This article is an excerpt from Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023? that was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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By Nadeem Walayat

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Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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