Stock Market Trend to New Bull Market High

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023 Apr 27, 2023 - 09:25 PM GMT

Current Trend

The S&P remains in a downtrend i.e. lower highs and lows and thus continues to target a break of 3800 on the short-term basis. In terms of swings the correction could extend to as deep as 3745 though I doubt it will go that low, more likely will bounce around between 3890 and 3780 for a few days.

As for what us likely to transpire beyond this then in steps our trusty road map that dates back to my in-depth analysis of October 2022.

Note this is a rough road map of how I expect the stock markets trend to play out during 2023, the chances that the stock market 5 months on is going to for instance bottom early March was pretty slim, instead the road map shows the direction of travel coupled with current analysis on subsequent price action. For instance the road map paints a picture for the stock market correction ending during March before entering a powerful bull trend into Mid Summer, that current price action acts to test and fine tune..

The stock market has fulfilled it's primary 3900 and secondary 3820 objectives for this correction that began at the start of February so should be carving out a bottoming price pattern over the coming days to set the scene for the bull run to resume that more likely than not will include a retest for a higher low as is the observed MACD pattern suggests to expect. Thus the correction both in terms of time and price and the road map should be on it's last legs.

Other signs for a resumption of the bull run can be seem in the fact that so far maximum doom and gloom has failed to deliver any of the panic selling that many had convinced themselves was imminent. It does not get more doom and gloom than a run on the banks, despite which the S&P is little changed on where it was before SVB blew up.

Therefore the most probable outcome is for the market to soon enter into it's next uptrend that will take the S&P to a new bull market high i.e. to beyond the last high of 4195, and likely beyond 4300, leaving many to scratch their heads as to what the hell is going on?

In conclusion I am expecting the following trend pattern over the next 4 to 5 weeks, i.e. basing now for an advance into late April enclosing a trend that see's a rally to above 4000 followed by a retest for a higher low and then it's off to the races to well above the last high of 4195.

Whilst my stock market big picture is for a bullish 2023 followed by a bearish 2024, baring in mind the bull run is probably going to peak during summer as per my original trend forecast road map.

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By Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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