Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts - 8th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine - 8th Sep 24
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Demand Comeback - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications - 8th Sep 24
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now - 6th Sep 24
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors - 6th Sep 24
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off- 6th Sep 24
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES - 6th Sep 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 - 3rd Sep 24
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency - 30th Aug 24
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income - 30th Aug 24
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE - 30th Aug 24
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? - 30th Aug 24
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve - 30th Aug 24
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? - 30th Aug 24
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary - 30th Aug 24
The Consequences of AI - 24th Aug 24
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? - 24th Aug 24
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future - 23rd Aug 24
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke - 23rd Aug 24
RIP Google Search - 23rd Aug 24
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? - 23rd Aug 24
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 - 23rd Aug 24
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? - 23rd Aug 24
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch - 23rd Aug 24
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Aug 24
My GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! 2024 - 23rd Aug 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Make Bitcoin's Volatility Work for You

Currencies / Bitcoin Jan 24, 2024 - 10:15 PM GMT

By: EWI

Currencies

Here's a bullish forecast when a "crypto winter" was proclaimed

The price action of bitcoin has been the very epitome of volatility.

The good news for Elliott wave practitioners is that the greater the emotional swings in a financial market, the clearer the Elliott waves -- but not at every juncture along a market's price path.


In other words, Elliott wavers often have to exercise patience as the wave structure resolves itself. At these times, what is called an "alternate" wave count is usually considered. That is -- in addition to the preferred wave count, there's a second-best interpretation.

As Frost & Prechter notes in Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

Because applying the Wave Principle is an exercise in probability, the ongoing maintenance of alternative wave counts is an essential part of using it correctly.

With that in mind, our January 2023 Global Market Perspective was considering both a bearish and bullish scenario for bitcoin -- with the bullish scenario being the preferred count. Here's the chart and brief commentary from that issue:

Under the bullish [scenario for bitcoin,] we're considering the Intermediate wave (4) correction to have ended at the 15,476 low of November 21.

Mind you, around the time the January 2023 Global Market Perspective published, bearish sentiment toward bitcoin was widespread. Here are some headlines:

  • 'Crypto winter' has come. Will it become an ice age? (Washington Post, Dec. 18, 2022)
  • Bitcoin's Price Targets for 2023 Are In -- and They Are Grim. Brace for a 50% Fall. (Barron's, Dec. 28, 2022)

However, bitcoin never breached that 15,476 level that was mentioned in our January 2023 Global Market Perspective.

That doesn't mean that Elliott wave analysis is always perfect, but it does offer context from which to forge a forecast.

Indeed, as of this writing, bitcoin is trading north of 40,000.

Is the rally over -- or is there a lot more upside to go?

You may want to check out our Global Market Perspective's latest analysis and wave count in our "Cryptocurrencies" section.

If you're unfamiliar with Elliott wave counts, read Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here's a quote from the book:

All waves are of a specific degree. Yet it may be impossible to identify precisely the degree of developing waves, particularly subwaves at the start of a new waves. Degree is not based upon specific price or time lengths but upon form, which is a function of both price and time. Fortunately, the precise degree is usually irrelevant to successful forecasting since it is relative degree that matters most.

Here's good news: You can read the entire book for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world's largest Elliott wave educational community.

Club EWI is free to join and members enjoy complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on investing and trading.

Just follow this link to become a Club EWI member: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Make Bitcoin's Volatility Work for You. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in