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UK Unemployment to Soar above 2 Million for Christmas

Economics / UK Economy Nov 13, 2008 - 12:12 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe latest UK unemployment data released today showed unemployment soared by 140,000 in the 3 months to August, up 33,000 on the month and the number officially claiming unemployment benefit rose by 25,600 in October to 970,000. This was followed by the Bank of England's report on inflation and the economy that stated that UK is heading for 2% GDP contraction for 2009 which is significant change to the existing forecasts of growth for 2009. With a three month lag in published data, the actual unemployment rate looks set to pass above 2 million by Christmas to be released in March 2009.


My UK unemployment forecast as the below graphs illustrate is for unemployment to rise to just above 2.5 million by April 2010, however a 2% GDP contraction forecast by the Bank of England for 2009 now implies that the UK is heading for a severe recession which implies UK unemployment could pass above 3,000,000 during the recession, this despite the fact that he unemployment statistics are heavily manipulated to under report true unemployment which would be some 6 million higher if all those of working age were included in the data. The real number of unemployed in the UK now stands at 7.9 million, up 15,000 in the three months to August.

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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Comments

Robert Wooller
07 Dec 08, 17:11
Unemployment

Brilliant article. I would argue that the times we are heading for will be the toughest ever. Don't forget that when we had 3m unemployed in UK back in 90s and 80s we didn't have as many immigrants and elderly people. These people will put even more pressure on the country, although it isn't any fault of their own.


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