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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Financial Markets 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, May 07, 2021

Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: EWI

Markets go where they go. The news is just rationalization.

As Elliott Wave International has noted many times, the mainstream financial press always tries to find a reason for a given trading day's stock market action.

In other words, if stocks happen to be up for the day, many financial journalists will say it was because of this or that "positive" news. If stocks happen to be down for the day, you got it, these journalists will ignore the positive news and search for something "negative" that happened in the country or world and say that was the reason stocks went down.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 05, 2021

Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Once in a while, stocks closed in red – is that a reversal or the most the bears could hope for these days? Thursday‘s hanging man got its follow through, yet the bulls staged a rebound into the close. Perhaps that‘s as good as the selling pressure gets, for I think the path of least resistance is still higher in S&P 500.

If you look at the VIX or the put/call ratio, Friday‘s setback is readily apparent, and stocks seem ripe for an upswing now. Fed‘s Kaplan did its job s with the taper talk, yet I think he played the bad cop part – the Fed will really act ostrich in the face of not so transitory inflation, for as long as the Treasuries market doesn‘t throw a tantrum.

And the 10-year yield has been quite well behaved lately, closing at 1.65% only on Friday. The April calm seems to be over, and I‘m looking for the instrument to trade at 1.80% at least at the onset of summer. Then, let‘s see how the September price increases telegraphed by Procter & Gamble influence the offtake – will the price leader be followed by its competitors? That‘s one of the key pieces of the inflation stickiness puzzle – and I think others will follow, and P&G sales and profitability won‘t suffer. The company is on par with Coca Cola when it comes to dividends really.

Once there, we would progress further in the reflation cycle when inflation is no longer benign and anchored. We‘re though still quite a way from when the Fed tries to sell rising rates as proof of strengthening economic recovery – once the bond market would get to doubt this story though, it would be game over for its recent tame behavior.

Friday‘s retreating Treasuries though didn‘t lift gold, and neither helped miners – it‘s not that inflation expectations would be sending a conflicting signal, as these slightly receded too. Inflation at the moment is probably still too low for the complacent market lulled to sleep by the transitory story, but look for that to change.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

The tax hike proposal shock is over, and S&P 500 took again on the ATHs on Friday. Buying pressure throughout the day lasted almost till the closing bell, and is likely to continue this week as well. And why shouldn‘t it – has anything changed? The artificial selling any capital gains tax hike would generate, is likely to come before year end – not now:

(…) Look still though how little has changed, as if the tax raising plans haven‘t been around since the infrastructure bill or implicitly even before. It‘s still April, and markets are pricing in not only this select reality, but broader tax increases coming. Yes, they have woken up, and the reflation paradigm is getting an unwelcome companion. This hit won‘t bring down the bull, but will slow it down – and the implications for broader economy will only hasten the pronounced advent of the commodities supercycle (well underway since the corona deflationary crash last year).

The move towards risk-on was clearly there, overpowering the USD  bulls yet again as the dollar bear market has reasserted itself. It‘s not just about EUR/USD on the way to its late Feb highs, but about the USD/JPY too – the yen carry trade is facing headwinds these days, acting as a supportive factor for gold prices. While these went through a daily correction, commodities pretty much didn‘t – lumber is powering to new highs, agrifoods didn‘t have a down day in April, copper and oil scored respectable gains. The market is in a higher inflation environment already, and it will become increasingly apparent that commodity-led inflation is here to stay.

Back to stocks and bonds, the S&P 500 took well to a daily rise in Treasury yields – and that‘s the key factor overall. The turnaround was most clearly seen in tech heavyweights but defensive sectors such as consumer staples or utilities didn‘t do well (they‘re interest rate sensitive, after all), and Dow Jones Industrial Average traded closer to the optimistic side of the spectrum. The second piece of the puzzle came from value stocks and financials, which are working to put an end to their own shallow correction – just as you would expect when rates take a turn higher.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 26, 2021

See What’s Next for European Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: EWI

Dear reader,

"Will it break above $1?" That’s the question millions of crypto watchers are asking now.

Dogecoin may be on your watch list, too. After all, its 9000%+ rally year-to-date is no longer “funny.” What started as a joke is now very serious.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 25, 2021

Fiscal Guilt: What a Shift in Monetary Policy Portends for Investors / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger describes how he is protecting his portfolio as political and financial fortunes begin to change.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
—from the poem "In Flanders Field;" 1915

I have a confession to make: I am reaching the end of my personal level of nonviolent tolerance when being forced to listen to non-elected "authorities" standing in front of TV cameras reading their "prepared notes" from teleprompters without the vaguest clue as to what they are talking about.

Worse still are the elected "representatives of the citizenry" of any country, state or province, standing in that very same spot ordering the populace to "stay indoors" while warning that the police have been instructed to issue citations (or arrest) those in violation of an order that has never been enacted into law.

Whether they are politicians or bankers or bureaucratic buffoons of questionable agenda, all of them should be gagged and bound and carted off to a facility of incarceration with zero chance of release back into the "general population." They all represent an ever-increasing threat to not only my sanity but also, and more importantly, to my personal liberty.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Cost-push inflation could break out (and a note on gold)

Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We (NFTRH) anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of inflation) because pro-inflation sentiment became over-done in March and was due for a cool down; so said a contrarian view. This post discussing the likelihood of more inflation to come is not written by a one-way bias booster. It’s important for credibility to make these distinctions from the herds running with the daily news cycle.

The short-term contrary sentiment situation against the inflation view began with the Bond King’s media-touted short of long-term Treasuries (i.e. expectation of higher yields), per one of our best macro tools…

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 spurted higher after prior days of tiny gains. Still lining up the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, stocks keep defying gravity. But the corporate credit markets are sending a gentle warning sign as they failed to move higher in unison on Friday.

Given the Fed support and liquidity injections talked on Friday:

(…)   the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.

The spanner in the works proved to be long-dated Treasuries as these gave up all intraday gains, and closed in a non-bullish fashion. The retreat in rising yields is running into headwinds, much sooner than the 10-year one could reach the low 1.50%  figure at least. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials appear calling it out, and both rose on Friday – and so did industrials and technology, all without tech heavyweights‘ help. Utilities and consumer staples went mostly sideways, disregarding the danger of yields about to rise again.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 09, 2021

Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

I really wonder how many of you that read this article entrust your hard-earned money to money managers? My next question is, of those that do, how many of you really understand your money managers' approach to managing money? And, my last question is if you believe that your money managers' goals are not aligned with yours?

Since the first question I asked at the start of this article is more rhetorical in nature, as I simply cannot answer it, I will move to the second question.

Of late, I have been reading articles published by money managers and I have honestly scratched my head. In fact, if you have been reading articles by them over the last 12 months, you would likely be scratching your head as well.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 07, 2021

S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.

Stocks are more focused on the tidal wave of liquidity rather than the tax increases that follow behind. So far, it‘s still reflation – tame inflation expectations given the avalanche of fresh money, real economy slowly but surely heating up (non-farm payrolls beat expectations on Friday), and not about the long-term consequences of tax hikes:

(…) Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.

And as the falling yields were embraced by tech with open arms, the sector‘s leadership in the S&P 500 upswing is back. As you‘ll see further on, the market breadth isn‘t pitiful either – slight non-confirmation yes, but I am looking for it to be gradually resolved with yet another price upswing, and that means more open profits (that‘s 7 winning stock market 2021 trades in a row).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent news of Hedge Fund and other institutional crisis events has opened many eyes as investors and traders realize the post-2008-09 global market credit bubble has extended well beyond what many people may realize.  Recent news that China offered a “deferment” for Chinese corporations and state-run enterprises content with shadow banking credit/debt issues at a time when China is tightening monetary policy shows that a process, like the 2008 Lehman incident, may be setting up where institutional level credit/debt liabilities ripple through the global markets as global central banks attempt to reign in monetary policies.

This process is not likely to happen suddenly though.  If this type of contraction in global monetary policy takes place, resulting in increased pressures to contain excessive credit/debt functions in the markets, then we believe the process may result in an extended 9 to 16+ months of “hit-and-miss” events leading up to a potentially bigger event.  The Archegos Fund forced unwinding of trades hit the markets recently as a wake-up call.  Prior to the Archegos event, the Greensill Capital collapse shocked the global markets because of the size and scope of this failure.  Now, we see Credit Suisse issuing warnings that Q1 earnings may have taken a big hit because of exposure to the Greensill and Archegos assets – which is leading to Credit Suisse attempting to put the Gupta Trading Unit into insolvency.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 05, 2021

Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Bullish run in stocks that lost steam before the close – does that qualify as a reversal? Given the other moves such as in the Dow Industrials, Russell 2000 and emerging markets, it‘s unlikely that the S&P 500 met more than a temporary setback. Just look at the rush into risk-on assets as an immediate reaction to the infrastructure and taxation plans – see the high yield corporate bonds moving higher (and this time also investment grade corporate bonds finally) as long-dated Treasuries keep losing ground, and the dollar noticeably wavered.

Yes, emerging worries about how this will be all paid for – not that an ideological challenge to modern monetary theory would be gaining any traction, but rather what would be the (quite predictable) effect of steep tax increases? Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 02, 2021

Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: EWI

Dear reader,

We are one year into the bull market that began in March 2020 -- and 12 years into the bigger bull market than began in early 2009.

You are probably getting anxious -- what's next for stocks, interest rates, gold and other commodities?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 01, 2021

How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending.  Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well.  For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated.  Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.


Until Gold Really Starts To Rally, Expect A Continued Rally In The Stock Market


When an Excess Phase rally is taking place in the stock market, we expect to see the Lumber vs. Gold ratio moving higher and typically see the RSI indicator stay above 50.  Demand for lumber, a commodity necessary for building, remodeling, and other consumer essential spending, translates well as an economic barometer for big-ticket consumer spending. Extreme peaks in this ratio can often warn of a pending shift in consumer spending and how the stock market reacts to an Excess Phase Peak.  Let’s take a look at some of the historical reference points on this longer-term Weekly Lumber vs. Gold chart below.


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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 01, 2021

What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Put/call ratio didn‘t lie, and the anticipated S&P 500 upswing came on Friday – fireworks till the closing bell. Starting on Thursday, with the rising yields dynamic sending value stocks higher – and this time technology didn‘t stand in the way. What an understatement given the strong Friday sectoral showing, acocmpanied by the defensives swinging higher as well. And that‘s the characterization of the stock market rise – it‘s led by the defensive sectors with value stocks coming in close second now.

Still last week, the market confirmed my early Friday‘s take:

(…) While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.

Neither running out of control, nor declaring the inflation scare (as some might term it but not me, for I view the markets as transitioning to a higher inflation environment) as over, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to break the bull run, where both stocks and commodities benefit. It isn‘t yet forcing the Fed‘s hand enough, but look for it to change – we got a slight preview in the recent emergency support withdrawal and taper entertainment talking points, however distant from today‘s situation.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Investors, Speculators, Gamblers, Instigators / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

Nowadays, it seems that anyone who owns anything fancies themselves to be an investor. However, does buying a fractional unit of bitcoin in an online trading account qualify someone as an investor?

Are fanciful dreams of striking it rich by running with the social media herd the foundation of fundamental investing? Maybe there is more to it than that. Let’s take a look.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Why Retreating Yields Don‘t Lift All Market Boats / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Stocks declined but won‘t they run higher next? Tuesday‘s downswing changed precious little, and the Congressional testimony was a non-event. The key happening was in long-dated Treasuries, which rose yet again – the much awaited rebound is here, and brings consequences to quite a few S&P 500 sectors.

The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise. This will hold true for as long as TLT is at least somewhat rising:

(…) technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. ...the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.

Technology though declined yesterday, and so did value stocks. Many markets went through selloffs yesterday, among commodities most notably oil. While nothing has substantially changed, we got a serious whiff of risk-off environment, pertaining precious metals too.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Tide Is Turning in Stocks and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Friday‘s session ended in a tie, but it‘s the bears who missed an opportunity to win. Markets however dialed back their doubting of the Fed, which has been apparent in the long-term Treasuries the most. One daily move doesn‘t make a trend change likely though, especially since the Mar pace of TLT decline is on par with Feb‘s and higher than in Jan. While Treasuries paused in early Mar, they‘re now once again as extended vs. their 50-day moving average as before.

And that poses a challenge for interest rate sensitive stocks and to some degree also for tech -  while I expect value to continue to lead over growth, technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. And it‘s true that the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.

Inflation expectations are rising, and so is inflation – PPI under the hood thus far only. Financial assets are rising, perfectly reflected in (this month consolidating) commodity prices. Cost-driven inflation is in our immediate future, not one joined at the hip with job market pressures – that‘s waiting for 2022-3. The story of coming weeks and months is the stimulus avalanche hitting while the Fed still merrily ignores the bond market pressures.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 14, 2021

Stocks Bulls Can Take a Rest – But Gold Ones Can‘t / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

The daily banging on the 3,900 threshold shows in yesterday‘s upper knot, and this milestone has very good chances of being conquered today. More important than the exact timing though, are the internals marking the setup – we‘ve indeed progressed very far into this correction. While not historically among the longest ones, it‘s still getting long in the tooth – just as I was writing throughout the week.

And it is getting stale, even if I look at the star non-cofirnation, the high yield corporate bonds. Relatively modest daily upswing, outshined by investment grade corporate bonds. Yes, the credit markets are calming down, and the tiny daily long-term Treasuries upswing doesn‘t reflect that fully just yet. Besides giving breathing room to defensives such as utilities and consumer staples, it‘s also very conducive to the precious metals sector.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 08, 2021

The Future of FINRA, Regulatory Defense and Bad Stockbrokers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Steve_Barker

FINRA stands for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. This tends to be the first line of defense against a bad experience with a securities broker, and it also has many other benefits. FINRA is an independent nongovernmental organization that focuses on the root of problems, securities sold to investors, and selling them to investors. It is the single largest independent regulatory body for securities firms operating in the United States. It writes and enforces the rules governing broker-dealer and registered brokers firms in the United States.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 04, 2021

Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Submissions

None of Friday‘s intraday attempts to recapture 3,850 stuck, and the last hour‘s selling pressure is an ill omen. Especially since it was accompanied by high yield corporate bondsh weakening. It‘s as if the markets only now noticed the surging long-end Treasury yields, declining steeply on Thursday as the 10y Treasury yield made it through 1.50% before retreating. And on Friday, stocks didn‘t trust the intraday reversal higher in 20+ year Treasuries either.

Instead, the options traders took the put/call ratio to levels unseen since early Nov. The VIX however doesn‘t reflect the nervousness, having remained near Thursday‘s closing values. Its long lower knot looks encouraging, and the coming few days would decide the shape of this correction which I have not called shallow since Wed‘s suspicious tech upswing. Here we are, the tech has pulled the 500-strong index down, and remains perched in a precarious position. Could have rebounded, didn‘t – instead showing that its risk-on (high beta) segments such as semiconductors, are ready to do well regardless.

That‘s the same about any high beta sector or stock such as financials – these tend to do well in rising rates environments. Regardless of any coming stabilization / retreat in long-term Treasury yields, it‘s my view that we‘re going to have to get used to rising spreads such as 2y over 10y as the long end still steepens. The markets and especially commodities aren‘t buying Fed‘s nonchalant attitude towards inflation. Stocks have felt the tremors, and will keep rising regardless, as it has been historically much higher rates that have caused serious issues (think 4% in 10y Treasuries).

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