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1. Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs - 21st Feb 22
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8.Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 - 19th Feb 22
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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market 2022

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Stocks: Should We Expect More Upside? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action.

The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 20, 2022

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We are in for a volatile trend with a downwards bias for much of 2022, as I wrote to expect on the 5th of Dec 2021 accompanied by revised trend forecast graph.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 18, 2022

China Stock Market Selling Pressure Could Be Over, Now What? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE
THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS!

China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets.

Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses.

According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.”

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Are Rising Oil Prices Sending Stocks into a Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

See a time when the economy revived as oil prices doubled

A long-held assumption is that "oil shocks" or dramatically rising oil prices are bearish for stocks.

Look at these headlines:

  • Dow slides nearly 800 points as oil hits $120 a barrel (Washington Post, March 7)
  • Why soaring oil prices could soon make the stock market sputter (Marketwatch, October 2021)

As you might imagine, if observers assume that dramatically rising oil prices make the stock market decline, they also believe the reverse, namely, a drop in oil prices makes the stock market climb.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 12, 2022

Stock Market S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock prices remain very volatile, as the Ukraine conflict keeps dominating headlines. Will the market reverse its downtrend?

The S&P 500 index gained 2.57% on Wednesday, Mar. 9, as it retraced some of the recent decline. The broad stock market’s gauge got back to the 4,300 level after bouncing from its Tuesday’s low of 4,157.87. On Feb. 24 the index fell to the local low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.3% lower and we may see further consolidation.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 12, 2022

Don’t Panic—here’s how Stock Markets historically perform during Wars / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Stephen_McBride

Last week, I was part of a private discussion with Marko Papic…

If you don’t know the name, few people on earth are as qualified to talk about how the war in Ukraine will affect stocks as Marko.

He’s been studying geopolitics and markets for more than a decade. He wrote the book Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

During the discussion, he said, “You should just buy every time there is a geopolitical conflict. There’s only 1 out of around 80 events where this isn’t the case.”

That assertion shocked me…

With the war in Ukraine raging on, I wanted to take it a step further, so you know exactly what to expect during these volatile times.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 10, 2022

Stock Market ‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 09, 2022

Is Russia Ukraine War Negative for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

Here's what really drives the trends of global stock markets

Let's first state the obvious: war is tragic as it brings death and destruction.

But does war make the stock market go down?

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 07, 2022

M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The Ukrainian people have sleep walked into a nightmare that they did not see coming, neither did much of that which purports to be the mainstream press. However my consistent view since late January (AI Stocks Multi Buying Levels to Capitalise on the Stock Market Panic of 2022) has been that -

a. Russia WILL invade Ukraine.

b. That Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine.

c. That Putin is prepared to destroy the WHOLE of Ukraine, flatten every city to achieve victory.

And then we had the risk of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons if the war did not go his way.

And after the war comes the Moldova War and Putin could even target NATO baltic states!

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 07, 2022

Stock Market Peculiar Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with.

If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come.

Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 06, 2022

"Shooting Stars" of the Stock Market: "Don’t Be Fooled by This" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI


"A funny thing happened on the way to the revolution"

A meme stock has been defined as “the shares of a company that have gained a cult-like following online and through social media platforms.”

This “following” is largely comprised of novice investors who hope to make a quick profit. You may remember two well-publicized examples of meme stocks back in 2021: Gamestop and AMC Entertainment. There have been others.

Well, Robinhood Markets has been described as “the brokerage behind the meme stock revolution.”

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 06, 2022

S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.

As we’ve seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 04, 2022

Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A quick recap on the state of play (saving time by using existing charts) in terms of my trend expectations as of September 2021 for the Dow to correct form early January to at least Mid February, which my CI18 Switch of 5th Dec deepened somewhat.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 01, 2022

Told You, Stock Market Risk On / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.

VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:

(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.

Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 28, 2022

Stocks: Why This "Trend Following" Indicator is Worth Watching / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

This "is compatible with a stock market that has further to decline"

Large Speculators are a sector of traders monitored by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and are comprised mainly of hedge fund managers and trend followers.

History shows that this group of traders is usually wrong at key market turns.

The Commercials, which you might call the "smart money," is another sector of traders monitored by the CFTC. They usually take positions opposite that of Large Speculators and are usually right.

This indicator is especially useful when the positions that Large Speculators and Commercials have established reach extremes at the same time a market's Elliott wave pattern suggests a trend turn is nigh.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Stock Market More Selling Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.

I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 21, 2022

Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Did you get a good heads up warning of the BEAR MARKETS current down phase BEFORE it began?

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 21, 2022

Why the "60 / 40 Balance" May Be Hazardous to Your Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

Notice the similar pattern between these two bond charts

Financial advisors have long advocated a mix of 60% stocks / 40% bonds to cushion portfolios from downturns in the stock market.

The thinking is that stocks go up in the long-term, hence, that's where investors should allocate the most. At the same time, advisors acknowledge that stock prices can sometimes go down so "less risky" bonds will provide at least some protection.

The problem with this investment strategy is that bonds can go into bear markets too. Moreover, they can do so at the same time as stocks.

Let's review what happened during the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Here's a chart and commentary from Robert Prechter's 2021 Last Chance to Conquer the Crash:

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 19, 2022

Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 18, 2022

Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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