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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market 2022

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Stock Market Mean Reversion / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.

For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Stocks Fall as Gold and Oil Jumps Amid Tension Over Ukraine – FED / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture.

We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.”

Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 10, 2022

INVESTORS SEDUCED by CNBC and the STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS the BIG PICTURE! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Have you capitalised on the stock investing lemmings as they leapt off the investing cliff as I and many of my patrons / readers have been doing? If not why not?

For instance during the PANIC I have expanded my exposure to my select list of AI tech stocks form 22.7% to 36.9%.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 10, 2022

Is it time to buy the Stock Market Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Stephen_McBride

By Justin Spittler : Is it time to buy the dip?

After all, the stock market has been a sea of red lately.

Many former highflyers are down 50%... 60%... even 70%.

That has many investors salivating to buy “cheap” shares.

And I get it…

Buying the dip can be a great money-making strategy.

But I don’t think that’s the play here.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 10, 2022

"A Stock Market Top for the Ages" Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

Hi reader,

In late 2021, Elliott Wave International Founder and President Robert Prechter gave a rare, live presentation -- "A Stock Market Top for the Ages" -- at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference. The recording comprises Prechter's December 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist.

And now our friends at EWI are sharing it with you free ($99 value).

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 07, 2022

INVESTORS SEDUCED BY STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS THE THE BIG PICTURE! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Given some of the comments I tend to get, (without mentioning anyone) illustrates that many people are STILL failing to fully grasp what we are dealing with here, the AI stocks are NOT NORMAL CORPORATIONS! THEY ARE ON AN EXPONENTIAL TREND TRAJECTORY!

And that exponential reality is QUANTUM AI!

Instead investors are getting seduced by standardised charts of every stock, throwing random names about just because they have fallen x%, perhaps buoyed by one of the more useful metrics, a low PE ratio to entertain thoughts of investing. All of which acts to dilute what is actually taking place as most investors focus is usually in the wrong place, permanently hinged on a few droplets of water that are the quarterly earnings reports at the expense of ignoring the ocean that is the Quantum AI mega-trend.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 05, 2022

THE Stock Market VALUATION RESET Explained / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The valuation reset is the rotation out of over valued growth stocks the pinnacle of which populate Cathy Wood's ARK funds and into under valued low PE usually dividend paying stocks as the following illustrates for the Russell Small cap stocks where high value stocks were bid up to to fever pitch ridiculous valuations whilst the value stocks were largely neglected by the market and as you can see we are a long way from the value reset from running it's course so this could play out for most of 2022. Where our AI tech stocks are concerned this translates into the higher the PE stocks facing greater downwards pressure for the likes of Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Amazon. Conversely the lower the PE stocks should see upwards pressure especially for dividend paying stocks such as IBM, Intel, GPN, LMT and so on into the biotech's.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 02, 2022

Stock Market Panic Selling - Can FED Engineer A Soft Landing For The Biggest Bubble We’ve Ever Seen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Taking into account the Fed comments from last week, recently one of our technical analysts forecasted a correct S&P Index price range of $4348 to $4261. The market has since corrected to that level and is now bouncing.

With that said, investors have been panicking with the SPY ETF having an average outflow of more than $1 billion per day over the past ten days.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 02, 2022

Stock Market Rally Getting Long in the Tooth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.

The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 01, 2022

The Quantum Entangled Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FAANG stocks are entangled with one another, which is why the likes of Amazon is still holding up there with the likes of Apple and Microsoft. and why we don't tend to get many opportunities to accumulate in the FAANG stocks at deep discounts because to get an opportunity means we are going to have to wait for an opportunity in ALL of the FAANG+ stocks to materialise.

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Companies

Tuesday, February 01, 2022

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: It's Time To Invest Based Upon Corporae Earnings / Companies / Stock Market 2022

By: Avi_Gilburt

We have all heard the phrase “earnings are the mother’s milk of stocks.” I believe the phrase was coined by Larry Kudlow. In fact, I have some commenters to my articles that claim that earnings are the only thing one needs to know about investing in the stock market.

But, is it true?

Bob Prechter has done some research into this topic, and has outlined some very interesting market history that flies in the face of the common perception regarding earnings: The Myth of Company Earnings and Stock Price

Are stocks driven by corporate earnings? In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Goldman Sachs’ Barrie Wigmore, who found that “only 35% of stock price growth [in the 1980s] can be attributed to earnings and interest rates.” Wigmore concludes that all the rest is due simply to changing social attitudes toward holding stocks. Says the Journal, “[This] may have just blown a hole through this most cherished of Wall Street convictions.”

What about simply the trend of earnings versus the stock market? Well, since 1932, corporate profits have been down in 19 years. The Dow rose in 14 of those years. In 1973-74, the Dow fell 46% while earnings rose 47%. 12-month earnings peaked at the bear market low. Earnings do not drive stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.

In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 28, 2022

Stock Market Rushing Headlong / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.

VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:

(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).

The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).

VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Avi_Gilburt

I have been writing for Seeking Alpha for over a decade now, and I have also been running a service for investors for over a decade as well. And, I think I have seen it all.

One of the things that still strikes me is the extent to which investors will go to cling to their market perspectives no matter how much you try to explain to them how their old perspectives are not accurate or how much you attempt to open their eyes to new perspectives. You can present as much evidence as you want, you can provide as many examples as you want, yet there will still be a huge number of readers who are unwilling to accept anything beyond their own views. There are truly a lot of closed minds out there who simply love the way their blinders fit upon their eyes.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next.

Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet.

The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 22, 2022

CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The great valuation reset that I have been warning of for a good 6 months is taking place with a vengeance! As it's not a question of everyone waiting for the Fed act to raise rates because the market is already raising rates anyway and at their sharpest pace in over a year which punishes the high PE garbage growth stocks whilst rewarding low PE strong cash flow stocks.

Look at ARK GARBAGE STOCKS - NO EARNINGS, NO SALES, JUST SOME GARBAGE MANTRA of "DESRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY" THAT SPEWS OUT of CATHY WOOD from time to time! The only thing getting disrupted are the portfolios of all the poor souls who fell for her snake oil sales pitch!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 21, 2022

Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

2022 has gotten off to a great start with many of the target AI tech giants having taken a early year tumble to fresh swing lows that is failing to register in the general indices such as the Dow, and which acts as an harbinger of what to expect during a volatile 2022, whilst my stock market trend forecast will seek to map out the trend for Dow into the end of the year. However my primary focus is on accumulating AI tech stocks and thus my analysis also includes individual price targets for each of the AI tech stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.

Contents:
What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Crude Oil Smashing Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels.

That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening.

Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year.

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