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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Markets 2024

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, September 30, 2024

Stock Market October Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Market Brief - 30th Sept 2024 - 5am UK Time

S&P FOMO's to new all time high which is against the seasonal trend for a down Sept, which is good in that it is the focus of my next analysis that allows one to determine what follows an UP Sept and it's derivatives for what it means for not just the next few months but for the whole of 2925. Preliminary analysis suggests to expect a strong Q4 and a bullish 2025 which will be the third full year of the stocks bull market, yes that's right those FOMO buying to push the S&P to a new all time high are TWO YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY! The true smart money was FOMO catching those falling knives into the October 2022 lows as I stated at the time your best buys will be your most painful to do!

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 30, 2024

The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Richard_Mills

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points boosted US stocks and has some observers wondering whether we are gliding towards an “everything rally”.

CNN reported on Friday that investors were moving into riskier assets from bitcoin to tech stocks. The S&P 500 on Thursday marked its 42nd record-high close in 2024, while on Wednesday, the Dow chalked up its 31st record high of the year. All three major stock indexes were on pace for a positive week.

Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital told CNBC the current environment of economic growth and interest rates resembles the early days of the 1982 bull market, the first 10 months of which the stock market gained 107%.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 22, 2024

US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons 22nd September.

.....

Stock Market Brief - 22nd Sept - 7pm (UK Time)

US 0.5% rate cut signals that the Fed wants to bring rates down fast from the 5.5% peak, with likely another 0.5% cut before year end and probably targeting sub 4% by the end of 2025 to maybe to around 3.5% which will act as a huge wind behind the stocks bull markets sail as multiples expand. Which in fact is contrary to that which most expect i.e. the analogs being peddled across the blogosfear point to the Fed deep cuts being associated with bear markets which is true! BUT those cuts were in response to FINANCIAL and ECONOMIC CRISIS which is not so today. Remember the market DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE IN THE PRESENT, so is discounting strong economic and earnings growth for 2025 following the 0.5% rate cut by expanding multiples in the present. Rate cuts should act to boost downtrodden stocks such as NIKE and Walt Disney that I accumulated some exposure to.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

Every now and then, I peruse articles written on Seeking Alpha to glean a flavor for what the average investor feels about the current market environment. And, to that end, I will scan the comments section for some nuggets of anecdotal sentiment.

So, over the last week or so, I have seen quite a few comments about the S&P500 such as these:

"We could hit 10k sometime around 2028 but I wouldn't be surprised with 2027 either."
"At this point it's clear that nothing will sink stocks. Even a full blown recession event like 2008 wouldn't be able to do much damage to the stock market at this point. In fact it would be bullish because Fed would print trillions to pump stocks again."

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Are Stocks Overheating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock prices continued their uptrend on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.54% and breaking above the 5,600 level. The market is once again nearing its July 16 record high of 5,669.67. But will it continue upward? Today, the index is expected to open 0.1% lower as markets await the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. In the short term, the market appears more and more overbought, making a correction likely at some point.
Last week, the investor sentiment worsened, as shown by AAII Investor Sentiment Survey on Wednesday, which reported that 39.8% of individual investors are bullish, while 31.0% of them are bearish, up from 24.9% last week.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

I want to start this article with a little background about Elliott Wave analysis, and begin with a quote from Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most successful money managers of all time:

"I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory. It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities"

Back in the 1930’s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott identified that markets represent unconscious, non-rational reactions which follow a repeating fractal pattern, which means they move in variably self-similar patterns at all degree of trends. This repeating fractal pattern represents overall societal sentiment which is governed by the natural law of the universe as represented through Fibonacci Mathematics.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

HOW BAD CAN THINGS GET? 

Pretty damn bad. Which means that it will likely be much worse than most of us can imagine. Other than Covid and its forced shutdown of economic activity by governments world-wide, the most recent learning experience for investors is the Great Recession of 2007-09. Beginning in October 2007 and ending in February 2009, the S&P 500 Index lost 53%…

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 06, 2024

Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

My speculative short position in the S&P 500 futures contract from August 20, opened at the 5,626 level, is in profit.

Wednesday’s trading session saw a slight rebound of the S&P 500 index, but it closed 0.16% lower, hovering near its short-term low following Tuesday’s decline of over 2%. The index broke below its recent trading range on Tuesday, which could signal the start of a new short-term downtrend, though it currently looks like a downward correction.

This morning, futures contracts indicate the index will open 0.2% lower, reacting to economic data: a lower-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and a slightly weaker Unemployment Claims report.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 30, 2024

Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday’s trading session brought declines for the stock market, but overall, the market remained within its short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% after rebounding from the daily low of around 5,561. The eagerly-awaited NVDA earnings didn’t change much, although today, the market is set to open 0.2% higher, retracing some of yesterday’s decline and further extending its consolidation.

Last Wednesday, I wrote “Recently, the market has continued to climb following the brief Yen crisis at the start of August, surprising many traders. The question is whether the market will continue to new highs or reverse course and retrace the recent rally. I think there is a chance the market will reverse its course and correct some of the advances, retracing a large part of the rally.”

Investor sentiment remains elevated, as shown by the yesterday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 51.2% of individual investors are bullish, while 27.0% of them are bearish – up from 23.7% last week.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 30, 2024

Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: EWI

Here's a sample of record sentiment readings for stocks

Recession coming or not, people are still EXTREMELY bullish.

Read this excerpt from the May 17, 2024 Elliott Wave Theorist:

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 16, 2024

Is Stocks Rally Showing Signs of Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks further accelerated their uptrend yesterday, with the S&P 500 index closing 1.61% and reaching new local highs above the 5,500 level. The market has retraced almost all of its declines from the August 1 local high of 5,566.16. The rebound surprised a majority of traders and the question is: Will the market go straight to new highs, or will it reverse at some point and retrace the rally? For now, there have been no confirmed negative signals; however, this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 0.6% lower, as indicated by futures contracts.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 15, 2024

We got the Stock Market Selloff — Now what? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Submissions

Editor’s note: Today, RiskHedge Executive Editor Chris Reilly sits down with Stephen McBride to discuss the recent market selloff and what investors should expect leading up to the US presidential election...
***
Chris Reilly: Stephen, we got the selloff you’ve been anticipating.

Here’s your warning from June:

Markets aren’t usually this easy or consistent. And remember, in an average year, the S&P 500 suffers a decline of 14%. My guess is we’ll get a correction in that ballpark sometime before November’s election.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.

Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stock Market Rollercoaster: Analyzing the Recent Meltdown and Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: MoneyMetals

The financial landscape experienced a seismic shift last week, reminiscent of hitting rumble strips on the interstate—jerking investors awake to the underlying economic dangers.

Monday’s drastic stock market selloff, triggered by various catalysts, left investors reeling, though the panic seemed to abate by week's end. But is everything truly back to normal, or was this a premonition of more significant issues to come?

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stocks Rebounded: What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

Tuesday's trading session was mixed; stock prices bounced, but they closed well below the daily highs. The S&P 500 reached a local high of 5,312.34 but closed more than 70 points below that level, gaining 'just' 1.04%. Overnight, calming words from the Bank of Japan were released, and this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 1.0% higher in another attempt to retrace more of its recent sell-off.

Before the current turmoil, investor sentiment had slightly improved last week, as indicated by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 44.9% of individual investors are bullish, while only 25.2% of them are bearish – down from 31.7% last week.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Reasons For A CRASH / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

Recently, we have seen a 10% drop in the S&P500. And, there is no shortage of reasons that the financial media pundits have ascribed to that decline. While many point to the bad jobs data, we have to at least be honest in recognizing that the market began this decline well before those poor jobs numbers were announced. So, we can easily dismiss that superficial reason.

But, the most common reason for the market decline to which the pundits point was the unwinding of the yen carry trade. In fact, I counted at least 3 articles on Seeking Alpha alone with that reason in their title, with at least another 5 or 6 proffering that reason within the heart of their articles.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The big US stocks dominating markets and investors’ portfolios just reported a truly-spectacular quarter.  Their collective revenues neared record levels, driving their highest earnings ever witnessed.  Yet despite all that, risks abound.  The US stock markets have never been more concentrated, relying on fewer and fewer companies.  Valuations remain deep into dangerous bubble territory, and market fragility signs are mounting.

The flagship US S&P 500 stock index has enjoyed a banner 2024, blasting up 18.8% year-to-date in mid-July!  Traders’ fascination with mega-cap techs involved in artificial intelligence fueled fully 38 new record-high closes this year, over 1/4th of all trading days.  The resulting greed and euphoria have left the SPX chronically- and extremely-overbought, mostly stretching far above its baseline 200-day moving average.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Can Stock Market Bad Breadth Be Good? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Gary_Tanashian

In a word, yes. But first, bad market breadth will likely be… bad

A subscriber sent me analysis calling for a “Monster [bullish] reversion trade for the ages” based on the extreme under-performance of the Equal Weight SPX (RSP) to the Headline SPX. The writer’s conclusion is that after such an extreme divergence the spring back in RSP vs. SPY/SPX is strong and the broader market is the place to be for out-performance.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

“Blowing soap bubbles is child’s (investor’s?) play, but surprisingly, physicists (economists?) haven’t worked out the details of the phenomenon.” (source)

After all-time closing highs in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday, investors drove both indexes higher again today following the release of the latest CPI number and the Fed’s decision to leave their target Fed funds rate unchanged for now. The bond market followed suit with bond prices increasing and the 10-year yield dropping to its lowest level in more than two months.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 15, 2024

Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As I voiced in my preceding analysis that failure of the Feb to March correction results in the following consequences -

a. It increases the probability for the other 2 corrections to materialise i.e. it was always a toss up whether we see 2 or 3 corrections during the year, where 2023 saw 2 corrections and thus tipped it in favour to expect 3 for 2024.

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