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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Rambus_Chartology

There are just a few times in ones investing career, depending how early you start and if you survive long enough, that you are witness to some extraordinary changes from the MACRO scale perspective. A few examples would be the beginning of the 1929 crash, the end of the secular bull market that was made in 2000 that began in 1974, the 1987 crash which is still the biggest one day percentage drop in stock market history of 23%. Then there was the banking and housing bubble that collapsed into the 2009 crash low which launched our current secular bull market in the stock markets which is now 13 years old.

Then there are more subtle changes in the macro world that are very rare which most investors or even economist don’t have the ability to recognize until they are well established. Eventually the change of trend is so great that one has to accept the fact and recognize it for what it is. In the beginning of a macro shift few believe it is really happening because the trend has been in place for so long that it seems normal and that is how markets work.

What I would like to show you today are several rare macro events that are going to change the world and in ways we may not understand right now, but changes are coming whether we like it or not. To think one person or a group of people can wave their magic wand and make everything the way it was before are in for a rude awakening. We are just now witnessing the birth of these macro trends that are going to be with us for many years into the future.

It is always hard in the beginning because most people don’t understand the changes and lash out to those in charge thinking they can make things right, but again that is wishful thinking. After a period of time has lapsed there will be an adjustment period and a new norm will be established. For those that understand the macro shifts will do well with their investments, but for those that are unwilling to adapt to the new environment will find it much harder and blame everyone and everything for their underperformance or outright failure.

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Companies

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

FACEBOOK Stock 45% CRASH - Game Over for META? / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Facebook (META) stock price has CRASHED by over 45%! Far beyond anything anyone could have imagined the stock price could trade down to. So no wonder many investors are now too frightened to hit the BUY button given the epic collapse in the stock price fearing that it could be game over for this social media giant as it places it's bets on reinventing itself as a metaverse giant. So is it a case of game over and all those who bought ont he way down now destined to lose all in a dying stock despite the stock now trading on just 15X earnings?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Around the World's Risks and Opportunities with Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Hi,

A "smart" investor knows more than how to pick a stock. Truly smart investors look at stocks...and bonds...and cryptos...and commodities -- to understand the BIG picture.

Only then a certain wisdom emerges that helps you make truly informed, truly smart decisions.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 18, 2022

Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Market Investor FOMO of barely a month ago on expectation of a blow off top that most clinged onto during the first few weeks of this sell off is now increasingly giving way to FEAR of an inexplicable never ending slide into the depths of a 2000 style bear market. We'll the Cathy Wood style stocks have been on that path for approaching a year now so perhaps not much downside in those, then again they still are what they were a year ago, NO EARNINGS GARBAGE!

However FEAR is infectious especially for the weak hands, those who where once eager to buy now FEAR perpetual falling prices that results in a state of paralysis. THIS IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY FEELS LIKE TO INVEST IN A FALLING MARKET! Something that is not apparent when looking at the price charts at tops and bottoms where one could easily have bought and sold with the be benefit of hindsight, yeah we'll maybe if one switched OFF the information flow that generates the GREED and FEAR that encourages buying at the top and inaction at the bottom!

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 18, 2022

The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Submissions

If the current market phenomena were to star in a Shakespeare drama, they would be ideal candidates for the Three Witches. Can you guess who would play who?

Have you ever heard of Shakespeare’s mythological characters, the Three Witches? They are depicted as prophets who represent evil, darkness, chaos, and conflict.

If you look at the market today, you will find ideal candidates for these dark roles. However, while rising commodity prices and inflation have a casting win in their pocket, there is no certain actor to play the third witch. Would the recession stand a chance?

No Easter eggs today – instead, here is a story that may provide food for thought.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 18, 2022

The myth of PH’s bankruptcy and “Chinese debt slavery” / Interest-Rates / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

In 2017, Forbes reported that President Duterte will force Philippines into China’s debt slavery and bankrupt the economy by 2022. The fake story was promoted heavily by international and Philippine media. The question is, why?

In May 2017, Forbes released a column that claimed that “New Philippine Debt of $167 Billion Could Balloon To $452 Billion: China Will Benefit.” It was written by Anders Corr, who was portrayed as an “independent” geopolitical risk analyst.

“Over 10 years,” Corr boldly predicted, “that could balloon Philippines’ debt-to-GDP ratio as high as 296%, the highest in the world.” Fueled by expensive loans from China," he said, "Dutertenomics will put the Philippines into virtual debt bondage.”

At the time, I argued that Corr’s prediction was idiotic and up to 240-250 percentage points off. Yet, it was quoted widely both internationally and in the Philippines.  
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Commodities

Monday, April 18, 2022

Gold Gains In Price Only – Not In Value / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD GAINS IN PRICE ONLY

It has been said that the more things change, the more they remain the same. That is certainly true of gold prices.

Let’s look at the following three charts in succession. Then we’ll talk about them…

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Currencies

Monday, April 18, 2022

Wall Street’s “green light” to get into Crypto / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride

Won’t governments just ban crypto?

It’s one of the most common questions folks ask me.

“Regulation” has been a bogeyman for the space since bitcoin (BTC) burst onto the scene 13 years ago.

Folks have long speculated new rules will crush crypto markets.

I couldn’t disagree more.

Regulation won’t kill crypto. Instead, it will lead to much higher crypto prices, as I’ll show you today.
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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 17, 2022

Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 16, 2022

Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022, AI Stocks Portfolio Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022 -

Whilst my last market brief signaled to expect a strong April to be punctuated by an imminent correction into early April before the final forecast push higher into a May high that the following chart of the S&P better visualises of what I have in mind in terms of how the trend could play out.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 16, 2022

Beating Inflation: Are The Fed’s Dreams Gold’s Worst Nightmare? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While investors remain happy-go-lucky, fundamental data for gold and silver is now worse than in 2021. Is this the last chance to come back to earth?

As another week comes to a close, the winds of change are blowing across the financial markets. However, while many investors and analysts can see only sunny days ahead, fundamental storm clouds should rain on their parade over the medium term, and it’s quite possible that it’s going to happen shortly.

To explain, this week culminated with the USD Index soaring above 100, the U.S. 10-Year real yield hitting a new 2022 high, and Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) hitting its highest level since the global financial crisis (GFC). However, the PMs paid no mind yet. In fact, investors across many asset classes continue to ignore the implications of these developments. So far.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 16, 2022

Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Okay, let’s take a breath. I don’t like to use ‘!’ in titles or even in articles. In fact, when I see too many of them I immediately think that someone really REALLY wants me to see their point. That said, the signal shown below is pretty important.

It’s in-month with a monstrously over-bearish bond sentiment backdrop similar to when we installed a red arrow on the chart below at the height of the Q1 2011 frenzy (cue the Bond King: “short the long bond!”). Chart jockeys are probably delivering the bad news of the chart’s inverted H&S, a potential for which NFTRH began managing a year ago when the 30yr yield hit our initial target of 2.5% and then recoiled as expected after the public became very concerned about inflation.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Stocks Bear Market About to Resume? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Tthe stock market rally that had the the bulls salivating is probably coming to and end, and thus the direction of travel over the coming days should be lower as the Dow continues to target $31k. In terms of the bear market we will probably eventually see the Dow gravitate to below $30k, how low and in what time frame requires in-depth analysis which I will focus on next after housing. In the meantime, This is the type of trend I warned to expect, VERY VOLATILE as investors gyrate between FEAR and GREED. A sell off now could set the scene for a strong April i.e. off a higher end March / early April low rather than a break to new bear market lows.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 14, 2022

What a Brutal Bear Market Brings Besides Crashing Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: EWI

"When social mood is negative, rallies, marches and protests become common events"

Sure, it's highly important to get out of value-losing risk assets before the onset of a big bear market.

No analytical method offers a guarantee; however, our experience shows that if you follow the message of the Elliott wave model, you'll have a good chance of protecting your wealth during the next financial downturn.

Having said that, there's more to a severe bear market than collapsing investment prices. Keep in mind that the shift from a positive to a negative social mood -- which brings on a financial bear market -- also brings on an array of societal problems.

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Companies

Thursday, April 14, 2022

4 Reasons Why Franchises Are Still Relevant in Today's Economy / Companies / SME

By: Steve_Barker

There is no question that the economy has taken a toll on businesses of all sizes in recent years. However, one business model has shown remarkable resilience – the franchise. Franchises are still thriving today because they offer several key advantages that small businesses and startups can't match. In this blog post, we will discuss four reasons why franchises are still relevant in today's economy.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Stocks – Uncertainty Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks fluctuated following their recent decline on Tuesday and the S&P 500 index closed slightly below the 4,400 level. Is this still just a downward correction?

The S&P 500 index lost 0.34% on Tuesday following its Monday’s decline of 1.7%. There is still a lot of uncertainty concerning the Ukraine conflict and Fed’s monetary policy tightening plans. On Monday it led to a more pronounced profit-taking action. However, the coming quarterly earnings releases season may be a positive factor in the near term. This morning the broad stock market is expected virtually flat following the Producer Price Index release.

The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,475-4,500, marked by the recent support level and Monday’s daily gap down. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,350-4,400. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its March rally, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

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Companies

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

7 Things Everyone Knows About Social Proof That You Don’t / Companies / SME

By: Steve_Barker

When it comes to marketing, there are some very ingenious solutions. Most people just know about the obvious ones, like SEO and content marketing. Only marketing professionals know about more complex aspects, like social proof. Social proof can be a very effective way of increasing the exposure of a business, bringing in customers, and building a reputation.

But what is social proof, and how does it work? This article will explore the subject in great detail, telling you seven things that everyone in the marketing world knows about social proof that you don’t.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Utilities Rising & Transporters Sinking – Sector Rotation Is Providing Clues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Historically, investors gravitate toward more defensive and commodity-focused sectors, such as precious metals, energy, commodities, and utilities, in late-cycle bull markets.

Recently, the stock market is beginning to show us signs that the bull market may be coming to an end. Commodities such as energy, grains, and precious metals have all experienced nice rallies. Price action also confirms money flow coming out of transports and into utilities.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 10, 2022

Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We are in for a volatile trend with a downwards bias for much of 2022, as I wrote to expect on the 5th of Dec 2021 accompanied by revised trend forecast graph.

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Companies

Sunday, April 10, 2022

Eye On JPM Ahead of Earnings / Companies / Corporate Earnings

By: Mike_Paulenoff

JPM (JP Morgan) reports quarterly earnings this coming Wednesday during pre-market hours. Investor reaction to this particular report is positioned to have a significant influence on the price of the stock. JPM's outspoken and high profile CEO Jamie Dimon already has warned us that changing (i.e., deteriorating) macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions are making business more challenging for the bank, despite the fact that interest rates have backed up sharply in recent weeks, which usually is a prescription for stronger bank earnings.

One look at Mike Paulenoff's daily chart of JPM certainly indicates something else is on the mind of investors that is outweighing the traditionally positive influence of rising interest rates on JPM's bottom line.

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