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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Sunday, April 03, 2022

Gold At $2000 Or $600? No Difference / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD AT $2000 

Gold flirted briefly with the $2000 number last month. At $2043 oz., it was several dollars shy from matching its peak price eighteen months earlier at $2058 oz.

With the current gold price at $1958 oz., the $2000 number is the sweet midpoint of that range. It is a nice round number and seems to be the price most gold traders and investors are focusing on at this time.

It is probably a good idea, therefore, to see if the $2k gold price holds any special significance other than what most in the gold community are thinking about.

And it does.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 03, 2022

Germany's DAX: What You Can Learn from the 2007 Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI


Why investors should be aware of a divergence between stock prices and consumer confidence

Among the scores of stock market indicators, there's at least one that may be off many investors' radar screens.

And, that is the trend in consumer confidence. Specifically, a peak in consumer confidence tends to precede a peak in the stock market.

With that in mind, back on Nov. 25, the Telegraph said:

Consumer confidence has dropped sharply in Germany. ...

A few days later, the December Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which offers coverage of 50-plus worldwide financial markets, provided a retrospective of Germany's DAX and consumer confidence with this chart and commentary:

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, April 03, 2022

How to Make Money during a Pandemic? / Personal_Finance / Money Making

By: Submissions

A lot of people are interested in authentic work-from-home job prospects.

Common causes comprise job loss, pay cuts, isolations, and stay-at-home orders. Your children might be home from school plus you cannot find secure and healthy baby-sitting. Even if you are still doing a job, you may wish to earn some more spending money or some money to pay down liability. Possibly you just need something to do in your free time.

Working from home gives a lot of benefits. You can save time as well as frustration by dodging everyday travel. You can work from any place in the state. You can run shops in the middle of the day.

Nonetheless, be careful of work-from-home job cheats. Under no circumstances, pay cash to get a job or to get a list of job prospects. If you have to do this, it is possibly a scam. 

The previous months have been disturbing. Even if you have not experienced a heartbreaking loss of a beloved one or your business, the economy at present has still possibly impacted your finances.

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Companies

Friday, April 01, 2022

Still Waiting to Take a BITE out of APPLE / Companies / Apple

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Apple soared on earnings to $175, subsequent price action has hardly seen any reaction so in my opinion Apple continues to trade on thin air at near a $3 trillion valuation trading on a PE near 29 with the market awaiting release of Iphone SE with 5G on March 8th, a lower cost version of the iphone for those who don't want to pay over $1000 for an iphone. Apple is a good stock but it trades on a nuts valuation, hence my exposure is a tiny 4% of target.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 01, 2022

US Interest Rate Yield Curve 101 – Steep, Flat, Inverted – What’s The Difference? / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The yield curve plots the current yield of a range of government notes and bonds in the “primary market.” The worldwide bond market – including private and government debt — currently represents about $120 trillion in outstanding obligations. The United States accounts for roughly $46 trillion (39%).

The U.S. government finances its spending by collecting taxes and issuing debt. More specifically, the U.S. Treasury funds deficit spending by issuing debt instruments with a range of maturities. 

  • Treasury Bills have maturities from one month to one year.
  • Treasury Notes have maturities from two to ten years.
  • Very long-term debt is issued as Treasury Bonds with 20- and 30-year maturities. 
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Commodities

Friday, April 01, 2022

4 Scenarios for BIG Moves in Precious Metals Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

World events are driving a volatile and potentially pivotal environment ahead for investors. Huge swings in financial markets are likely still to come.

Direction, magnitude, and timing are difficult to predict. But precious metals bulls are eying massive upside potential for gold and silver as war and inflation stoke safe-haven buying.

What follows are four major macro scenarios that could impact metals markets in a big way in the months ahead.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 01, 2022

Can Tracking Global Money Flow Provide Clues To Stay In The Black? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

According to The Bank of International Settlements, the global foreign currency exchange (FX) daily transactional turnover averages $6.6 trillion. At Technical Traders, we track a variety of markets, asset classes, and global money flow looking for clues that will help us in our quest for ETF returns. Interestingly when foreign exchange is charted as a benchmark to the SPY (S&P 500), we can see that FX has also been in a risk-on environment for the past 2-years.

Recently we looked at volatility utilizing the CBOE Volatility Index known as VIX. But there are alternative ways or tools that we can use to analyze asset prices.

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Politics

Friday, April 01, 2022

Neither the FED nor US Government Can Print “Trust” / Politics / US Politics

By: Raymond_Matison

In this period of great economic, financial, monetary and geopolitical uncertainty, Borge Brende, the current president of the World Economic Forum, stated that countries need to prepare for the next crisis today.  Mr. Brende more importantly stated that “We have to focus on rebuilding trust. There is a lot of lack of trust”.  That is a very insightful and timely observation.  Stateside and nearer to home, a recent University of Michigan survey notes that confidence in US government policies is at its lowest since 2014.    

At the same time, available statistics show that 84% of the people in China trust their government, while 81% of Indonesians and 79% of the people in India trust their governments. How does one explain, that those countries which the western world criticizes for being oppressive or lacking freedom, when polled rank higher in trust of their governments than western democracies?

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Personal_Finance

Friday, April 01, 2022

UK Energy Bills Catastrophe! 50% Price Cap Rise - SUBMIT Meter Readings ASAP to Avoid Extra Charges / Personal_Finance / Household Bills

By: N_Walayat

Britians' energy price cap has risen by 50% today which is what most customers will be paying given that all of the fixed rate deals charge more than even the latest price cap. If you have not already submitted a meter reading that it is still not too late to do so but the sooner you submit the better to avoid energy usage being charged at a 50% higher cost.

So having an accurate read of where customers stand WILL make a difference! Once upon a time the price cap could be ignored but not for the past 6 months as a myriad of energy firms such as Zog Energy dumped their fixed rate customers onto regulators who passed the customers onto firms such as EDF onto their variable rate tariffs that as of writing are some 60% BELOW fixed rate tariffs, so the worst thing anyone can do is to FIX their energy tariffs as even after tomorrows 50% hike, the price cap will still be lower than fixed rate deals, and likely remain so all the way into the next price price cap hike on 1st October when we could see another huge hike of as much as 30% ahead of winter 2022.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, March 31, 2022

WARNING - Energy Price Cap 50% Rise Tomorrow, Take and Submit Gas Electric Meter Readings ASAP! / Personal_Finance / Household Bills

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britians' energy cap is set to rise tomorrow that will probable see average standard rate tariffs hiked by over 50%! And this is no April Fools day joke! FIFTY PERCENT HIKE IN ENERGY PRICES! So having an accurate read of where customers stand WILL make a difference! Once upon a time the price cap could be ignored but not for the past 6 months as a myriad of energy firms such as Zog Energy dumped their fixed rate customers onto regulators who passed the customers onto firms such as EDF onto their variable rate tariffs that as of writing are some 60% BELOW fixed rate tariffs, so the worst thing anyone can do is to FIX their energy tariffs as even after tomorrows 50% hike, the price cap will still be lower than fixed rate deals, and likely remain so all the way into the next price price cap hike on 1st October when we could see another huge hike of as much as 30% ahead of winter 2022.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Commodities are Ripping Higher— Here’s my Top Way to Cash in / Commodities / Uranium

By: Submissions

Commodities are on fire.

The price of oil has soared 43% since the start of the year.

Palladium—a metal most often used in catalytic converters—has increased 28% over the same period, while wheat has spiked 39%...

These are major moves. But I see commodity prices headed even higher this year.

Specifically, a huge opportunity is setting up in one of the most overlooked corners of the commodity market.

I’ll show you how to position yourself for this in a minute. But first, let’s look at why commodity stocks have been on such a tear lately.
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Companies

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

MICROSOFT Stock Short and Sharp / Companies / Microsoft

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If you blinked you missed the plunge on earnings! For most folks the best they could have got was about $277 via limit orders. I bought Microsoft in the green zone all the way down to $280, but got greedy with my big order at $274, not filled. so I remain stuck at about 18% invested of target exposure (1% of portfolio) as I still await the big buys to be triggered. Microsoft is reinforcing itself as a gaming giant by bidding $64 billion for Activision. To imagine that Microsoft is not going to have a big foot print in the meta-verse is a big mistake whilst they do have their own VR headsets however so far they are tethered to PC's apart form the augmented reality Hololens which I see as an expensive stop gap, so far behind where Facebook is.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

How the "Great Resignation" Ties in with a Financial Peak / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: EWI

Insights into "a peak in social optimism of monumental proportions"

Some people probably remember that country song by Johnny Paycheck from the late '70s -- "Take This Job and Shove It."

Many of those in the younger generations may not have heard of it given the song was released more than 40 years ago. However, many of them caught the spirit of it just the same as they quit their jobs in droves in what has been called the "Great Resignation."

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Economics

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

US Military Spending to Exceed Annual Deficits / Economics / US Military

By: Richard_Mills

“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.” 
– President Dwight D. Eisenhower

The guns versus butter model portrays the relationship between a nation’s investment in defense and civilian goods. Because a country has finite resources, it must choose how much to spend on defense/ the military (guns), against the amount budgeted for items that are needed for non-defensive purposes (butter). Of course, it can also buy a combination of both, and most countries do.

The one nation that doesn’t have to bother with this, is the United States. Because the US holds the reserve currency, and all the exorbitant privilege that implies, it can spend on guns AND butter. Fact is, whenever the US government runs short on funds, it simply prints more money. Or borrows it, by issuing Treasury bills that are sopped up by domestic and foreign investors. The demand for Treasuries will always be resilient, so long as the dollar remains the reserve currency. This, however, may not be the case for much longer…

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Companies

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

How To Start A Business In 6 Easy Steps / Companies / SME

By: Steve_Barker

Every new business owner will tell you one or two success stories. The first one is like it 'seems to have happened overnight' where everything runs perfectly, while the second story is one of resilience and hard work that has eventually paid off. No matter which story you identify with, there are always some key steps that you can follow to get your business started on the right foot, and the story, well, in the end, you will choose how to tell it.

Starting a business can seem like a daunting task. You may feel like you need to have an idea that’s never been done before, or spend months planning and perfecting your strategy. But the truth is, there are fast and efficient solutions to do the work without the headache. Here are six easy steps to get your business off the ground.

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Companies

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Get More Satisfied Customers With These Simple Tricks / Companies / SME

By: Steve_Barker

The customer is always right. It’s a cliché for a reason. Putting the customer first is essential to the success of any business, whether it’s a small mom-and-pop shop or a multi-million dollar corporation. There are countless ways to organize your business in order to make the customer feel comfortable and valued that you can explore, but there are a few simple tricks that can make a big difference in customer satisfaction to get you started.

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InvestorEducation

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Learn to Value Stocks Using the Earnings Growth Factor / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After the current panic passes I will revert to posting my primary AI stocks table as the main table for data, presently the table retains my original pre-panic buying levels as of 22nd November 2022 for comparison purposes with levels achieved in red against those that remain pending. Remember all of these levels once upon a time seemed far out of reach, who could have imagined Nvidia would fall from $336 to $236 over a couple of months! Google to $2625! Microsoft to $282, Intel to $48, okay I'll give you Intel, but many of the levels have now been achieved and then some!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Submissions

With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.

Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.

The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Stocks: Should We Expect More Upside? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action.

The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement.

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Companies

Monday, March 28, 2022

GOOGLE TO BE SLICIED INTO 20 PIECES! / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Strong earnings growth and news of a 20 to 1 STOCK SPLIT sent GOOGLE soaring towards it's all time highs, Stocks tend to run higher into a split and fall afterwards so I plan to be fully invested by Mid June and will likely take profits on the split on 15th July. If you hold whole shares then you will get 20 new Google shares, if you hold fractional shares you will likely get $$$'s in exchange for your fractional holdings which may not be so bad given that the stock should fall after the split. Google is Numero uno! Should be at the very core of every stock portfolio, at 2.4% of my portfolio my holding is light, I want to see my holding rise to about 7% of portfolio. Again just remember if you own a fractional share then you will likely get cash instead of split shares, so if you hold say 1.8 shares right now then you definitely want to look at pepping your holding up to over 2.0, unless you want the cash.

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