Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Stock Market - Here’s Why It’s Absurd to Be Bearish Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : The trend is your friend. How many times have you heard that saying? HOW MANY?
It’s a deeper philosophical question. You get to believe only one of the following, not both:
1) The market trends
2) The market is mean reverting
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
2017 – The Year of Banana Skin / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: GoldCore
2016 is behind us and we have started a new year with great gusto and no small measure of anxiety. The potential for unknown unknowns turning into banana skins is very high. Right now we are looking at:
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Defence Contracting Sector Under Trump / Companies / Sector Analysis
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : This month, President-elect Trump annoyed some people when he criticized two top defense contractors on Twitter.
Wall Street isn’t used to presidents publicly criticizing major US companies. The tweets caused shares to tumble a few points for both Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT), which makes the F-35 fighter planes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Low Oil Prices Will Make Russia More Aggressive in 2017 / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Russia has had a hard time since the collapse of global oil prices which began in August 2014. This will continue in 2017. The Russian people are starting to feel the effects of prolonged low oil prices. This was bound to happen. And this will shape Moscow's foreign policy in the year to come.
Russia’s money problems start with the economy’s structure. The country’s budget depends on income from oil exports. Low oil prices have had huge effects. And the country hasn’t even recovered from the 2008 decline.
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Stratfor 2017 Annual Global Forecast / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
The convulsions to come in 2017 are the political manifestations of much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, the trend of aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it. China's economic slowdown and its ongoing evolution compound this dynamic. At the same time the world is trying to cope with reduced Chinese demand after decades of record growth, China is also slowly but surely moving its own economy up the value chain to produce and assemble many of the inputs it once imported, with the intent of increasingly selling to itself. All these forces combined will have a dramatic and enduring impact on the global economy and ultimately on the shape of the international system for decades to come.
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Understanding America's Global Role in the Age of Trump / Politics / US Politics
By: STRATFOR
By Rodger Baker : The New Year, of course, is a time when many reflect on the past and look toward the future. The past provides potential lessons and cautions for those who would seek to find tomorrow's solutions in yesterday's actions. In his 1994 book Diplomacy, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote: "The study of history offers no manual of instructions that can be applied automatically; history teaches by analogy, shedding light on the likely consequences of comparable situations. But each generation must determine for itself which circumstances are in fact comparable."
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Old Woman In Sweden Becomes The Latest Victim of the War on Cash / Politics / War on Cash
By: Jeff_Berwick
It has been a common practice for people to keep cash stowed away in lock boxes or under mattresses in their homes, but now, even something as logical and important as keeping a cash stash for a rainy day can make you a suspected criminal.
Ethel Hülst, a 91 year old Swedish woman, unfortunately got to experience the ruthlessness of her country’s central bank first hand which may have contributed to her death.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Increased Fiscal Spending Could Spell Debt Trouble for 2017 / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Over the past 30 years, America’s economic growth and boom-bust market cycles have been fueled with abundant sources of cheap debt. Whether emerging markets or commodity-rich countries, there’s been no shortage of buyers of US debt.
This has allowed the US—and by extension its consumers—to borrow huge sums of capital to spend on fiscal items or for personal consumption. It was a rather symbiotic relationship from which both parties would benefit, even if longer term prosperity was being jeopardized.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Here’s the Real Oil Price Russia Needs to Break Even / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY JACOB SHAPIRO : We published our 2017 forecast earlier this week. One of our predictions is that Russia is in for a difficult year economically. This is because Russia’s economy depends significantly on oil.
The price of oil in 2016 has averaged roughly $43 a barrel. That’s a far cry from two years ago, when it was more than double. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, oil-export revenue accounts for 26 percent of total revenue from Russian exports. For an economy with exports making up almost 30 percent of GDP, that’s fairly significant.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Stock Market, Gold Outlook for 2017 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger reflects on how events of 2016 affected the markets, and lays out his strategy for 2017, which includes diamonds and uranium.
One of the most bothersome peccadillos of the advisory community, be it emanations from home computer blogs or the Ivory Towers of Wall Street, is the annoying tendency to accentuate good calls and understate bad ones.
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
CIA Planning Rogue President Donald Trump Assassination? Elites "Manchurian Candidate" Plan B / Politics / Intelligence Agencies
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The establishment elite still reeling from the failure of any of their bought and paid for candidates that populate both the Democratic and Republican parties to make it into the White house for the first time since perhaps JFK, are increasingly looking to the likes of the CIA to begin implementing the elite's PLAN B as President Elect Donald Trump takes office and starts to diverge from the elites interests. For instance it is is not in the elite's military industrial complexes' interests for the US to be friendly towards Russia, despite the fact that Russia literally poses a near zero economic or military threat to US global power. However, the operating system of US Military and Economic Global Power is such that it does not matter if a nations is a friend or foe, all are fair game, where the king of cyber warefare is the United States that can literally shut any nation down within hours, given that the so called free internet is a US military delivery system for malware infection for total access and control. So to imagine that the US full spectrum global empire assembled over the past 100 years will allow a Rouge President to disrupt it's activities is delusional.
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
The Gold Owner's Guide to 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Reversal, resurgence and renewal on the road to the new year
Read full article... Read full article...Quietly, while all attention was riveted on the U.S. election, gold made a notable comeback in 2016. The gain was not spectacular at 8.7%, but it was respectable, and it came after three straight down years. (Silver had an even better year with a 15.2% gain.) In addition and perhaps even more importantly, global investment demand registered its fourth largest increase since the 2011 post-crisis peak. That resurgence suggests that down years for gold did not temper the global inclination to own it. To be sure, these numbers in tandem represent an important turnaround for gold and a break from the near-term past. It is also perhaps the first hint that we may have turned the page from the corrective phase of the cycle to resumption of the long-term secular bull market for both gold and silver.
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
Commodities: New Year's Promises Vs. Elliott Wave Patterns / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
2011, 2014, and 2016: The year's performance has consistently followed its Elliott wave script
It's that time of year again, when before us an entirely new blank slate is laid, which we eagerly fill with promises of better health, habits, and life choices.
But, according to Statisticsbrain.com, only 8% of people successfully carry through with their New Year's resolutions -- or as I like to call them, Maybe-lutions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
Sheffield Tree Fellings - Labour City Council Outsourcing Local Democracy to Amey / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
It may be the start of the new year but t is unlikely to bring a halt to the tree felling rampage currently underway in Sheffield, where apparently by the end of 2017, 6000 big street trees will have been felled out of a population of a about 30,000, big street trees which have been deemed by the councils PFI contractor Amey too costly to maintain and so have to go so as to maximise profit.
In response to the rampage thousands of Sheffielders have been protesting many coalescing across a number of disperate facebook groups in an attempt to both publicise and halt the tree felling's before they claim thousands more of the Sheffield's biggest and best trees. Unfortunately there is little sign that the campaigns and voices of reason have had any effect on the city council which remains determined to allow Amey to fulfill its objectives regardless of the damage being done to Sheffield's streets. The reasons for which are shrouded in secrecy as to why Sheffield city councilors appear deaf, dumb and blind, which implies that the councillors have out sourced the running of Sheffield to a foreign multi-national, the Spanish Ferrovial family owned Amey.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
SPX has made a daily reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has performed a daily reversal by retracing the decline to its cycle Top resistance at 2260.79. It may do a smaller degree retracement to 2253.00 before going lower. The next stop may be the 50-day Moving Average at 2194.98. It may decline past that level in order to do a retest from below.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
Changes We Saw in 2016… and Those We Did Not / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Rodney_Johnson
I try to stay away from financial news on the television. All that yelling and hype makes me tired, and I realize later that it was mostly meaningless. I know they must make everything sound like it will change the world to keep viewers tuned in, but I have better ways to spend my time.Instead, I read a lot, from varying sources, so that I can bring the best information and analysis to you. In addition to Economy & Markets, I also write a weekly publication called the Dent Digest, which is distributed to our subscribers. In it I try to bring together the relevant stories of the week, including both the well-known and the not-so-obvious.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
Market Forecasts 2017 After a Volatile 2016 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: Harry_Dent
Where to now… after what 2016 dished out?
First, there was the surprise upset of the presidential election of dear old Donald.
Then came the surprise shift in sentiment about the election. Before, he was a wrecking ball. After, he’s suddenly Jesus walking on water. Never mind that he’s already pissed off China… twice! Or that many are worried about his overly cozy relationship with “Darth” Putin, as with his new Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, who is also cozy with Putin.
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
Beware the $52 TRILLION $USD Debt Bomb / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: Graham_Summers
What is Janet Yellen thinking?
The Yellen Fed raised interest rates again in December 2016.
More than this, Yellen has promised the Fed will be raising rates THREE times in 2017.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
Stock Market Retracement Appears Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The decline/retracement pattern is clearer now. Wave 1 bottomed at 2241.77. The additional decline was an extended Wave [b]. The five Waves necessary to complete [c] appear to be finished, although the Model suggests the SPX may linger in a small bounce for another hour. A decline beneath the mid-Cycle support at 2254.65 may be another short entry/sell signal.
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
US Dollar – The Big Picture / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continues to strengthen following very positive long-term bullish price behavior. Although retracements will be seen in the short-term, upward pressure should remain for some time.
Classic bullish trend continuation price behavior:
Read full article... Read full article...