Monday, November 09, 2015

U.S. Jobs NonFarm Payrolls +271,000; Is the Game Changing? / Economics / Employment

By: Gary_Tanashian

I can already tell NFTRH 368 is going to be a flowing thing because there is a lot of on-point material to talk about. So the usual standard charts will be minimized in favor of trying to get a good read on what is in process in the markets, in policy and in the economy.

Specifically, given the October Payrolls data, its effect on interest rates and the US dollar we seem to be back to a point similar to where we were 1 year ago when we used a strong USD (and corresponding weak Yen and Euro) to plot bullish trade possibilities in Japan and Europe, and a bearish environment for US exporters.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Western Central Banks Playing with Hyper Inflationary Fire / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Mario_Innecco

There are various examples in history of when national currencies have been debased so much that confidence in those currencies have been lost to such an extent that the nominal value of hard assets and productive assets in those currencies have gone up in a parabolic fashion. The grandaddy of currency debasement was the reichsmark during the Weimar Republic period in the early 1920s Germany. There are present day examples of currency debasement and rising local stock prices like Argentina and Venezuela but we will focus on the German example.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Pieces of the Puzzle Lining Up for Potential Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket appears flat as I write, while the futures are down 5 points. While I cannot explain why the difference, there is no substantial effect of one over the other at this time.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Dow Stocks Index Soars, Doctors of Doom Wrong, What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

"As the ostrich when pursued hideth his head, but forgetteth his body; so the fears of a coward expose him to danger." ~ Akhenaton

We prepared our subscribers for the market pullback; crash if you believe the naysayers, well in advance of the event. While they chanted from the top of their lungs that the end of was close at hand, we broadcasted an opposing message. We welcomed this carnage phase and recognized for what it truly was; opportunity is knocking in disguise and refused to fall for this silly ploy. The same monotonous theme has been repeated decade after decade with the same miserable consequence, one that is bound to bring you one step closer to the dog house.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Does the Bell Toll for the Fed? / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Last week Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hinted that the Federal Reserve Board will increase interest rates at the board's December meeting. The positive jobs report that was released following Yellen's remarks caused many observers to say that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase in almost a decade is practically inevitable.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Gold Price Breakdown Could Result in Slide to $800 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

The predictions made in the recent past for the dollar to rally and gold and silver to drop have proven to be correct. Gold has now dropped for 8 days in a row as we can see on its 3-month chart below, which common sense dictates is increasing the chances of a bounce soon, especially as Commercial short positions eased significantly last week and gold is arriving at a support level in an oversold condition. Gold is oversold relative to its moving averages, which are in bearish alignment.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Silver Price Forecast Plunge to as Low as $10 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

The last update posted on 18th October called a top in silver, and that is what it turned out to be. On its 3-month chart we can see that silver broke down from a small Head-and-Shoulders top at the end of October and then went into a steady day after day decline with the result that it has dropped now for 7 trading days in a row. While it could drop further towards or to the support shown, it is getting short-term oversold and is increasingly likely to bounce soon. As with gold this weakness was triggered by dollar strength, with the dollar rising sharply on Friday in response to a stronger than expected jobs report which the market thinks makes an interest rate rise more likely.

Monday, November 09, 2015

China’s Central Bank Buys Another 14 Tons of Gold … Bullion Falls To 3 Month Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- PBOC declared gold reserves now about 55.38 million troy ounces or 1,722.5 metric tonnes

- Central bank gold rose to $63.26 billion by end-month – less than 2% of $3.53 trillion FX reserves

- China disclosed on July 17th that its gold holdings had surged 57% since 2009

- China officially owns around 1,720 tonnes of gold  –  true total figure likely much larger

- China’s total gold holdings much higher as also owns gold in CIC

Monday, November 09, 2015

SPX, USD and Gold Charts Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Toby_Connor

With momentum starting to diverge and stocks late in their daily cycle it's probably better to sell into a breakout above the all-time highs than buy a breakout.

Monday, November 09, 2015

It’s Now, or Never for Yellen, Impact on Gold and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Bob_Kirtley

It has been seven years in the making, but now the Federal Reserve may be finally ready to lift interest rates from zero. There has been a myriad of reasons to not hike, multiple false starts and huge ongoing debates on what the right course of US monetary policy is, but from the Fed’s point of view the time is at last right to increase rates.

Yellen had said just this week that the Fed meeting in December would be live if the data supports a move, that the Fed is monitoring the data, and that the Fed thought it could be appropriate to move in December. Then, a +271k NFP print is released to all but seal the deal.

Monday, November 09, 2015

As Credit Cards Interchange Cap Looms, Keep a Close Eye on Fees / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring

By: MoneyFacts

The latest research by Moneyfacts.co.uk can reveal that credit card providers are anticipating the effects of the upcoming EU cap on interchange fees by taking a long, hard look at their credit card fees, rewards and interest rates.

On 9 December, credit and debit card processing fees, which are paid by a retailer’s bank to the cardholder’s bank for each purchase, will be capped at 0.30% and 0.20% respectively. The idea behind the change is that businesses will no longer have to pass excessive fees onto their customers.

Monday, November 09, 2015

The Big Silver ETF - Silver and Physical Inventory Part 2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

In a follow up to last week's excerpt from out recent Q&A with Ted Bulter, questions were asked warehouse movement in other commodities and about the big ETF...

Are you seeing the frantic movement of metal in other commodities markets?

Do you believe the ETF’s are actually backed by physical metal?

Sunday, November 08, 2015

Fed December Interest Rate Hike Stock Market Panic Trigger For New All Time High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Flip, flop, flip, the bulk of 'market analysts' that populate the mainstream media (sales) have once more flopped in favour of a December US Fed interest rate hike with some giving the odds at 100% ! (Bill Gross), which reminds me of just a few weeks ago when analysts were typically coming out with near certain statements that stocks were now definitely in a bear market i.e. giving it a 99.7% chance ! (money morning).

Sunday, November 08, 2015

Stock Market Continued Correction Possible / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend – SPX has resumed its uptrend in order to complete the last phase of the bull market.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses longer market trends.

Sunday, November 08, 2015

Turkey Goes to War / Politics / Turkey

By: Mike_Whitney

“ISIS threatens our way of life and security…We have plans to act militarily against them in the coming days. You will see.” — Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu

A landslide victory in Turkey’s November 1 snap elections has removed the last obstacle in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s drive to war. The surprise outcome of the balloting, which was widely denounced as “unfair and marred by fear and violence by international election observers”, has given Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) 49 percent of the vote restoring single-party rule in Ankara. Shortly after the election results were announced, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called on Turkey’s political parties to scrap the existing constitution in order to grant President Erdogan nearly-limitless executive authority.

Sunday, November 08, 2015

Snuggling Up to Celebrities Not Part of Journalism Training / Politics / Mainstream Media

By: Walter_Brasch

One of the basic tenets of journalism ethics and practices is that reporters must keep their distance from news sources.

They’re allowed to be friendly. They’re even allowed to share a meal with a news source. But, they must be independent. It’s a “Caesar’s wife” thing—they must be above suspicion.

Sunday, November 08, 2015

Stock Market Major Wave 4 Underway, or Underway Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2079. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2116, a new uptrend high, Tuesday afternoon. After that it pulled back for the rest of the week, hitting SPX 2084 on Friday, and closing at 2099. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.60%, and the DJ World index rose 0.10%. On the economic front positive reports out numbered negative ones. On the uptick: construction spending, auto sales, ISM services, monthly payrolls, the MMIS, the GDPn, consumer credit, plus the unemployment rates and trade balance improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, factory orders, the ADP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. After the close Friday FED governor Brainard gave this speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20151106a.htm. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Retail sales, the PPI, and Export/Import prices.

Saturday, November 07, 2015

US Dollar Surges, December Rate Hike Odds Soar Following Strong Jobs Report / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Following today's jobs report the odds of a December rate hike approached 70% and the US dollar index surged.

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Hot Jobs....Improving Services.... Stock Market Pulling Back 2052 To 2134 The Range.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

A lot of anticipation was out there ahead of the big Jobs Report out this morning before trading began. Expectations of approximately 180,000 jobs created was the name of the game, but there were other numbers out there as well. A range of 150K to 240K. The report pulled a shocker. 271K jobs created. Even better than even the highest predictions of optimism. The futures fell very hard on the news as it would now be a lock for the Fed to raise rates by a whole .25 BP come their December meeting. Of course, you can understand my sarcasm.

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Stock Market Clear Separation From the Pennant / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

We can see that there is separation from the Pennant formation even on the daily chart. There also appears to be a single impulse (5 waves) from the top with a partial retracement from today’s low at 2083.74.

There’s no telling what may happen over the weekend or whether the retracement may go higher. TNX has not yet reversed and the VIX and Hi-Lo Indexes have not given any indication of an imminent decline. Given all that, the situation may turn on a dime, so make your own call on what the SPX has to offer.