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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Thursday, April 08, 2021

Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Antonius_Aquinas

After Brexit, there has been a growing number of voices within the European Union and among various nationalistic groups arguing that English should be replaced as the official language since now only Ireland and Malta retain English.

The loudest quarter calling for a change has come from the French who, not surprisingly, want their own tongue to become the lingua franca of the EU.  Eric Zemmour, a French conservative commentator, asserts, “I think this is the time to launch a counter-offensive in favour of French, to recall that French was the original language of EU institutions.”*

A return to French, however, has its difficulties with other nationalist groups particularly those from the EU’s dominant economic power, Germany.

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Currencies

Thursday, April 08, 2021

Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this second part of our exploration of the recent US Dollar rally and what it may be reacting to in relation to the current US stock market highs and continued rally, we will explore some of the underlying factors that are translating into US Dollar strength while the US stock market continues to push higher.

In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the US Dollar reaction to the 2008-09 credit market crisis and how the US Dollar actually started to bottom/rally in early 2008 – just as the rollover top in the US stock markets continued to setup.  The way the US Dollar reacts to stress factors in the global markets is to strengthen as a safe haven as capital is constantly seeking the best environment for investment and profits.  When the markets enter a period of turmoil, the US Dollar typically begins to strengthen before the global markets really begin to react to the fear or turmoil.

The recent news of large financial institutions and hedge funds taking large losses and closing operations is somewhat similar to the Lehman event of 2008.  These types of larger corporate debt collapses have wide-range global market effects.  Sometimes, these events can ripple into other global corporations who engaged in this level of financing or credit functions.  For example, Credit Suisse’s attempt to recoup potential losses from the Greensill collapse may be a very complicated and fruitless process according to a recent Wall Street Journal article.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 08, 2021

You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Dear reader,

Almost exactly a year ago, oil prices went negative $40.

Today, with crude trading at $60, you're hearing lots of opinions as to what's next.

"Electric car revolution" ... "reopening economy" ... "end of commute" ... "start of travel season"

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Currencies

Thursday, April 08, 2021

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back / Currencies / US Dollar

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Previously dismissed, the USDX may now be back with a vengeance. Sentiment is swinging away from shorts and there is an uncanny historical pattern.

With a potential bearish pattern already broken, the USDX is resuming its journey northward. And why is it geared to do well? Is it because the U.S. economy is ripping head? Definitely not - that’s not happening. It’s rather because other regions (think Europe and Japan) are doing even worse.

The dollar’s imminent rise doesn’t mean that gold can’t still experience some very short-term upswing, but for the medium-term, the precious metals continue to face bearish headwinds.

With the greenback laying back and enjoying a well-deserved Easter vacation, gold, silver and the gold miners avoided a dollar-drama for at least another day. However, with the USD Index working to regain its supremacy, along with investors’ respect, the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has quietly dissipated from the investing zeitgeist.

Case in point: the USD Index has broken above its monthly declining resistance line and has already made four new highs since the New Year. More importantly though, because the precious metals have a strong negative correlation with the U.S. dollar, the upward momentum has coincided with an 8.78% drawdown of gold, a 6.18% drawdown of silver and a 6.41% drawdown of the GDX ETF.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 08, 2021

Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value not yielding an inch. A rare constellation given the the long-dated Treasuries performance especially – as if the narratives were flipped, and value „could“ move up on rising yields. Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill.

Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.

Both the VIX and put/call ratio are at extended levels – the first below 18 (formerly unimaginable to stock market non-bulls), the second approaching local lows again. As I have written yesterday:

(…) Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.

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Companies

Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits / Companies / Microsoft

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Microsoft stocks risen by 10% since my last update but the valuations have stayed constant on an EC of 55, which is why Microsoft remains a great primary stock that stealthily continues to deliver as AI is driving this tech giants exponential growth continuing to beat Wall street expectations after all the analysts think linear whilst the trend trajectory is exponential. With Microsoft AI Azure cloud computing division growing by 50% per annum, converts into a Buy rating of 65%.

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Companies

Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE / Companies / Amazon

By: Nadeem_Walayat

First Amazon stock soared into the stratosphere and now so have Amazon earnings doubling, sales up 44%.Gone is Amazons EC of 148! Gone too is the relatively pricey valuation of 91 of November 2020, and here we now stand barely 3 months on with Amazon priced on par with Google trading on an EC of just 42. What does this mean, it means Amazon is CHEAP! And thus the Buy Percentage is 100%!

Unfortunately this means the odds are stacked against all those looking for lower prices. Of course we can get lucky and the market panics and takes the likes of Amazon with it but in technical and valuation terms seems very unlikely.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 07, 2021

The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Richard_Mills

Years of neglecting its critical metal supplies is catching up with the United States, as demand for the raw materials needed to build a new green economy that rejects fossil fuels gears up.

US President Joe Biden just announced a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending package aimed partially at shifting the US transportation system from gas and diesel-based to battery-powered, and more support for renewable energies such as wind and solar over carbon-based sources like natural gas.

The plan is big on promises and appears to benefit many sectors, but details are scant on how the country will source the metals needed for repairing and replacing traditional “blacktop” infrastructure, and minerals that will feed a brand new “mine to battery” supply chain.

This article takes a deep dive into the US metals problem and how it might work with its northern neighbor to address it.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: MoneyMetals

Central bankers and their comrades in Washington DC changed course in 2020. The policy shifted from “print money and hand it to Wall Street” to “helicopter money” in the form of direct payments and loans to citizens.

The fiscal stimulus, like the Fed’s monetary stimulus before it, provided a fix that addicted markets needed to stay high.

The helicopter money represents another “temporary” measure that will almost certainly become permanent. Much like Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policy, bureaucrats will have a very hard time stopping what they have started.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 07, 2021

S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.

Stocks are more focused on the tidal wave of liquidity rather than the tax increases that follow behind. So far, it‘s still reflation – tame inflation expectations given the avalanche of fresh money, real economy slowly but surely heating up (non-farm payrolls beat expectations on Friday), and not about the long-term consequences of tax hikes:

(…) Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.

And as the falling yields were embraced by tech with open arms, the sector‘s leadership in the S&P 500 upswing is back. As you‘ll see further on, the market breadth isn‘t pitiful either – slight non-confirmation yes, but I am looking for it to be gradually resolved with yet another price upswing, and that means more open profits (that‘s 7 winning stock market 2021 trades in a row).

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InvestorEducation

Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Submissions

By Rida Morwa: One common criticism of high-yield investments is that they are high-yielding for a reason, making them risky. Often, there is a reason why a security has a "super" high yield. However, just because the market dislikes or fears a particular investment does not mean it is a high-risk investment. With our “Income Method”, we search for investment opportunities that pay a substantial dividend that is well covered by the business's operations, but that the market disfavors for the wrong reasons. This strategy combines immediate-income and value investing.

The Difference Between Perceived Risk and Actual Risk
Perceived risk is a subjective assessment of risk or uncertainty, based on our limited perspective. Others' perceptions will influence ours, and actual probabilities of adverse events may differ significantly. The market is often a key determiner of perceived risk. A recent sell-off, or misunderstood earnings news, or persistent negative "sector sentiment" can all be indicators of a high level of perceived risk. When such events occur, this can open the door for some great buying opportunities, especially when Mr. Market's perception is wrong about the risk factor, and when the fundamentals are strong.

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Companies

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Google stock has just rocketed higher after under performing it's brethren, and coming from it's last great buying opportunity low during September that saw Google trade down to $1400. This illustrates the primary point that we don't know precisely WHEN an individual stock will surge higher i.e. the AI stocks are not going to all move in lock step together. So it is pointless to ask questions such as why is Amazon soaring but Google is not, if a stock is good then eventually it will come good in terms of price performance and Google is literally PRIMARY which means that Google is likely to be the first mega-corp to be run by an AI in all but name. So the existence and scope of the AI's control and management needs will need to be inferred where one big clue will be inexplicable to most stock price movements that to me reveal the handiwork of post human intelligence - DEEP MIND!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent news of Hedge Fund and other institutional crisis events has opened many eyes as investors and traders realize the post-2008-09 global market credit bubble has extended well beyond what many people may realize.  Recent news that China offered a “deferment” for Chinese corporations and state-run enterprises content with shadow banking credit/debt issues at a time when China is tightening monetary policy shows that a process, like the 2008 Lehman incident, may be setting up where institutional level credit/debt liabilities ripple through the global markets as global central banks attempt to reign in monetary policies.

This process is not likely to happen suddenly though.  If this type of contraction in global monetary policy takes place, resulting in increased pressures to contain excessive credit/debt functions in the markets, then we believe the process may result in an extended 9 to 16+ months of “hit-and-miss” events leading up to a potentially bigger event.  The Archegos Fund forced unwinding of trades hit the markets recently as a wake-up call.  Prior to the Archegos event, the Greensill Capital collapse shocked the global markets because of the size and scope of this failure.  Now, we see Credit Suisse issuing warnings that Q1 earnings may have taken a big hit because of exposure to the Greensill and Archegos assets – which is leading to Credit Suisse attempting to put the Gupta Trading Unit into insolvency.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners / Personal_Finance / UK Housing

By: Submissions

Trying to maintain healthy finances despite a busy schedule and plenty of responsibilities can often feel like an impossible affair. As a matter of fact, it can feel like despite all the money you earn, it easily gets depleted no matter how hard you might try. That said, it is quite similar to trying to maintain an active lifestyle. While the first time you decide to go jogging might feel like a miserable experience, it gets easier with time.

For finances, it is all about building a mindset fully geared toward saving. Eventually, it will start feeling like second nature, and you will wonder why you had any trouble, to begin with. Here are just a few financial tips for homeowners to ensure that they have enough to spend on a rainy day.
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Stock Market Pushing Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
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Economics

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets sprung higher on Thursday as April and second quarter trading kicked off. After suffering losses in the first quarter, precious metals may now be due for a spring rally.

The U.S. Dollar Index was up slightly this week. Regardless of how the dollar fares against other fiat currencies, investors can expect massive depreciation ahead in real terms. There is no end in sight to the inflationary cycle of spending, borrowing, and printing in Washington.

This week, President Joe Biden promoted a so-called infrastructure package that comes in at more than $2 trillion.  That’s on top of $1.9 trillion in bailouts and giveaways finalized last month.

Much of the proposed “infrastructure” spending has nothing to do with paving roads, building bridges, or expanding ports. These sorts of transportation upgrades are slated to only get $115 billion. Meanwhile, Biden would spend $174 billion on electric vehicle subsidies and hundreds of billions more on various “green” and racial leveling programs.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, April 05, 2021

Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve / Personal_Finance / Crypto Mining

By: HGR

Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading above above $60,000 which means virtually anyone with a decent enough GPU in their desktop PC can make easy money crypto mining in the background with their desktop PC, basically getting paid to carry on working in the normal, even to the extent of being able to render videos in software such as Adobe Premier or Davinci Resolve as this video illustrates, of course it helps if one has a power CPU such as an 5950x and a powerful GPU such as an RTX 3080 which makes mining in the background a breeze, all whilst continuing to work on ones PC as normal with the the likes of NiceHash, where you get paid in BITCOIN and not useless obscure crypto coins, so do check out Nicehash to start crypto mining with your desktop PC.

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Commodities

Monday, April 05, 2021

Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Longtime gold bashers are gloating over the precious metal’s recent price slump. Gold prices have declined more than 10% in the first quarter of 2021.

But the perma-bears shouldn’t feel vindicated. After all, anyone who heeded their advice missed out on gold’s record run in 2020 – and on many years of outperformance since 2001.

While gold bugs are often accused of having an unhealthy obsession with the metal, the “anti-gold” bugs reveal a deep-seated bias that can only be explained as irrational or dishonest.

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Commodities

Monday, April 05, 2021

Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Biden just announced an ambitious and expensive infrastructure plan. Will it rebuild gold?

Yesterday (Mar. 31), President Joe Biden announced the big infrastructure plan , the second major legislative initiative after the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan passed in early March. The proposal includes about $2.2 trillion in new spending over eight years, boosting government expenditures even further .

Despite the name, the plan assumes that only a part would be spent on infrastructure. To be more specific, Biden wants to spend $600 billion on transportation infrastructure (such as bridges, roads, airports, etc.), and more than $300 billion on improving utilities infrastructure (drinking-water pipes, electric grids, broadband). He also proposes to put more than $300 billion into building and upgrading housing and schools, $400 billion to care for elderly and disabled Americans, and almost $600 billion in research and development infrastructure, manufacturing, and job training.

That doesn’t sound bad at all (after all, infrastructure is critical), but there is a catch. The plan assumes that all the spending will be financed by tax hikes. Biden proposes to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from the 21 percent set by Trump to 28 percent, as well as to eliminate all fossil fuel industry subsidies and loopholes. So, according to the proposal, the tax reforms will add about 0.5 percent of GDP in fiscal revenues, which are believed to fully pay for investments within the next 15 years.
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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 05, 2021

Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Bullish run in stocks that lost steam before the close – does that qualify as a reversal? Given the other moves such as in the Dow Industrials, Russell 2000 and emerging markets, it‘s unlikely that the S&P 500 met more than a temporary setback. Just look at the rush into risk-on assets as an immediate reaction to the infrastructure and taxation plans – see the high yield corporate bonds moving higher (and this time also investment grade corporate bonds finally) as long-dated Treasuries keep losing ground, and the dollar noticeably wavered.

Yes, emerging worries about how this will be all paid for – not that an ideological challenge to modern monetary theory would be gaining any traction, but rather what would be the (quite predictable) effect of steep tax increases? Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.

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