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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Sunday, May 05, 2019

Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we have an eye-opening interview with Bill Holter of JS Mineset. Bill weighs in host of topics including our incredibly broken and phony markets, the truth behind why governments hate gold so much, and the real reasons why China and Russia are eagerly amassing huge gold positions.

Bill also highlights some tell-tale events he believes could cause a massive revaluation of gold and silver… and an implosion of the debt-based markets we have today. Don’t miss our explosive interview with Bill Holter, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals markets got hit this week as the Federal Reserve threw cold water on the idea of interest rate cuts.

Fed policy makers met on Wednesday and left their benchmark rate unchanged as expected. The Fed’s statement noted that price inflation excluding food and energy has declined over the past 12 months and is officially running below 2%. This, even as oil and gasoline prices have trended sharply higher this year.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 05, 2019

Stock Index Trading Signals for Momentum, Swing, and Trend Following / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Since 2001 I have been refining my index trading skills and strategies in the hope that one day I would provide a steady stream of trades and income and possibly even be able to automate the trading for me.

Now, 18 years later I have made most of these dreams/goals come true with a robust trading system that makes trading momentum drops and pops, swing trading, and trend following really simple. While it’s not 100% complete, and likely never will be as I’m always working on adapting things work with the everchanging markets, it is something I’m really proud of and excited to share with fellow traders. Over the next month or so I will be pushing to get this new application running for members to watch and receive the trade alerts.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 05, 2019

Looking At Crude Oil Price Corrective Upswing, Is the Bottom In? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

It looks like crude oil is set for a sizable weekly decline. After yesterday’s plunge, the market looks to have stabilized today. But is it really so? In today’s analysis, we’re bringing you the details. We objectively reveal what to expect next. Either the bulls or the bears won’t like it. Who do you think it’ll be?

Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Sunday, May 05, 2019

US $2 Trillion Infrastructure Plan Will Require Mega Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Richard_Mills

The White House and Congress finally agreed to put their significant differences aside and work together on something constructive, no pun intended.

On Wednesday it was announced that President Trump and Democratic congressional leaders plan to spend $2 trillion on US roads, bridges, power grids, water and broadband infrastructure - bricks and mortar priorities that are sorely underfunded in both the United States and Canada.

For more on this, read our The global infrastructure deficit: the road not yet taken

“We just had a very productive meeting with the president of the United States,” House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Polosi said during a press scrum, adding: “We did come to one agreement: That the agreement would be big and bold.”

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, May 05, 2019

Night King is NOT DEAD! But it's Valar Morghulis for Game of Thrones Facebook Groups / Personal_Finance / Social Media

By: N_Walayat

An unknown HBO TV shows based books written by a fantast author no one had never heard of (RR Martin) that barely managed to survive past its pilot who HBO were not happy with demanding several cast changes and a re shooting of the whole pilot!

to its 2nd season has since stormed the world by it's 8th and final season. Where everyone has jumped on board the Game of Thrones bandwagon in the countdown to the shows final 3 episodes, but then what? Valar Morghulis, all tv shows must die!

Yes, there is take of prequels and spin offs but based on what happened to previous popular TV shows then Season 8 for most will be the end of Game of Thrones as it concludes its 8 season arc.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 04, 2019

Dangerous Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

These record US stock-market levels are very dangerous, riddled with extreme levels of euphoria and complacency.  Largely thanks to the Fed, traders are convinced stocks can rally indefinitely.  But stock prices are very expensive relative to underlying corporate earnings, with valuations back up near bubble levels.  These are classic topping signs, with profits growth stalling and the Fed out of easy dovish ammunition.

Stock markets are forever cyclical, meandering in an endless series of bulls and bears.  The latter phase of these cycles is inevitable, like winter following summer.  Traders grow too excited in bull markets, and bid up stock prices far higher than their fundamentals support.  Subsequent bear markets are necessary to eradicate unsustainable valuation excesses, forcing stock prices sideways to lower until profits catch up.

This latest bull market grew into a raging monster largely fueled by extreme Fed easing.  At its latest all-time record peak hit just this week, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) has soared 335.4% higher over 10.1 years!  That makes for the second-biggest and first-longest bull in US history, only possible because it gorged on $3625b of quantitative-easing money printing by the Fed over 6.7 years.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 04, 2019

Will Yuan Replace US Dollar and Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

“The US dollar will collapse or it will be replaced by another currency” – we hear such statements all the time. Are they true? We decided to check these claims – so we invite you to read our today’s article about the US dollar’s international supremacy and find out whether the greenback’s demise is likely in the foreseeable future. Let’s also draw implications from the analysis for the precious metals market.

We have heard about the fall of the US dollar’s significance for over half a century. In particular, the rise of China’s economy threatens the greenback’s dominance. Trump’s unsound fiscal policy and the recent Powell’s dovish turn only reinforce these fears. So, let’s analyze whether such a scenario is likely in the foreseeable future and let’s draw implications for the precious metals market.

The dollar’s supremacy started around 1955 when reserves held in greenback exceeded those held in pound sterling. Since then, the US dollar is a king. To be clear, we do not maintain that greenback is a wonderful currency without problems and better than gold. No, it simply has no competitors among other fiat currencies. It is a king of beggars.

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Economics

Saturday, May 04, 2019

Trump Trade War Is Widening, Not Ending / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

Almost every day brings comforting news on the trade front. They’re talking! Someone went to Beijing! Someone else is optimistic!

The problem is, that’s just talk. The longer it goes on, the more tariffs damage the economy.

Let’s call tariffs what they are: import taxes. Maybe then the people who oppose all other taxes will stop thinking tariffs are somehow helpful.

There are better and less harmful ways to achieve our goals. But what you or I think doesn’t really matter.

President Trump likes tariffs, and current law lets him use a “national security” pretext to impose them.

So they will continue until he changes his mind, and there’s no sign he will.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 04, 2019

S&P 500 Reversal Signals Becoming Apparent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Submissions

In the early parts of 2019, the biggest stories in the financial markets have become apparent in the S&P 500.  Corporate earnings seasons was initially expected to be problematic for several major industry sectors.  But quarterly earnings managed to outperform analyst expectations roughly 80% of the releases for the period and this helped propel the main U.S. stock benchmarks back toward record levels.

Near the end of the summer period in 2018, many equities analysts were beginning to think this was unlikely for 2019.  Target price projections for several sectors were revised lower, and this led to rising volatility where many of the market’s key tech stock names (i.e. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft) fell to new short-term lows.  In the periods which which followed, however, the S&P 500 has received a forceful round of dip-buying.  Very little in the way if technical price retracement has been visible, but this is not always the type of trend market watchers hope for in terms of long-term sustainability.

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, May 04, 2019

How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my latest analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series that warns to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why I did not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 03, 2019

MAY Analysis - Stock Market, Machine Intelligence Stocks, House Prices and Gold & Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a head up for planned analysis for MAY 2019 that will first be made available to Patrons who support my work. I aim to post at least 4 pieces of analysis as was the case for April. Primary analysis to include an update to the stock market trend forecast i.e. any deviation from trend, a look at Gold and / or Silver, more stocks to invest to profit from the machine intelligence mega-trend as well as reaping individual personal benefits i.e. in terms of longevity. As well as continuing in-depth analysis in my series seeking to conclude towards a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices.

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

Economic Dominoes Are Starting to Drop / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: John_Mauldin

In the Great Recession, authorities faced enormous pressure to “do something.”

Letting nature take its course may well have been the best strategy. But it couldn’t happen that way in our political system. They had to act.

In 2008–2009, we got things like TARP—the Troubled Asset Relief Program that used $431 billion of your money to buy loans that banks no longer wanted on their books.

What we now forget is that TARP helped banks that weren’t even banks before that point. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and numerous other broker-dealers and insurers hurriedly got bank charters specifically so they could be part of TARP.

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

Universal Basic Income Would Be a Social and Economic Disaster / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jared_Dillian

I am never going to retire. Oh sure, I say that now, but what about when I am 80? No. I will never stop working.

Every morning, I get out of bed when the alarm goes off, take a shower, put on dress clothes (a suit, usually), and drive 35 minutes to work in an office that I rent in an office building.

I write newsletters. I can just as easily do that on the couch, in a pair of gym shorts, with a cup of coffee. Why spend over an hour a day commuting and dealing with all the brain damage of putting on a suit and going to work?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 03, 2019

The May FOMC Meeting Is Over. They Say Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining... / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The May FOMC statement didn’t bring much of a surprise. Fed Chair Powell remained upbeat in his assessment of the U.S. economy while dismissing low inflation as transitory. Gold has initially jumped, only to keep declining later. What has actually happened yesterday, then?

FOMC Statement Acknowledges Lower Inflation

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on April 30-May 1. In line with expectations, the US central bank unanimously kept its policy rate unchanged. As previously, the inaction reflected the new patient approach adopted by the Fed in January. So, the federal funds rate remained at the target range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent:

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture / Economics / Unemployment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis directly continues on from (UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 03, 2019

Stock Market Investing Dow Theory Overview. / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory

By: Christopher_Quigley

Applying Dow Theory To Investment Practice.

I first came across Dow Theory in 1989 when I lived in Belmont, San Mateo County, California. I thought its creators Charles Dow and William Hamilton had unique insight into stock market behaviour. Accordingly, for over ten years I developed a course incorporating their fascinating insights and have been solidly teaching their market philosophy for over 12 years; writing my first published on the topic in 2007.

One of the most difficult tasks I have encountered teaching this subject is how to prevent students

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

Toward Japan’s Economic End-Game / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the spotlight has been on Japan's new Emperor Naruhito, the economy is coping with half a decade of Abenomics, monetary injections, huge debt – and a proposed sales tax that could make things a lot worse by the fall.

Ever since Shinzo Abe started his second stint as Prime Minister, Japan has focused on positive economic signals, which has sparked futile hopes, including a bad sales tax proposition.

Japanese officials vow to stick to the planned tax hike in October (it has been delayed twice), barring a big economic shock. With the 2019 budget, Abe hopes to offset adverse impact of the sales tax by returning much of the extra revenue to consumers via $18 billion of offsetting measures, instead of faster debt-reduction.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 03, 2019

US Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Shake-Out Begins / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US Federal Reserve announced today they are leaving rates unchanged based on their latest meeting.  The markets should take this as a sign of relief.  Yet, hear all-time highs and expecting the Fed may actually decrease rates a bit, the market reacted with quiet price rotation near these highs.

The US Fed could have shaken up the markets even more, but we believe this move by the Fed will be interpreted as “Fed Uneasiness” with regards to the overall US and global economy at the moment.  A failure to prompt a rate increase could be seen as weakness by the Fed and uneasiness over the fragility of the US and Global economies.  Once this shake-out settles, the markets will go back to doing what the markets always do – interpreting future fair values.

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Companies

Thursday, May 02, 2019

BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my latest analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series that warns to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why I did not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!

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Companies

Thursday, May 02, 2019

Disney Stock Price Will Hit $170 Next Year / Companies / Investing 2019

By: Stephen_McBride

On April 12, Disney (DIS) took a massive leap. The stock jumped 12% in a single day:

Big, safe stocks like Disney don’t often move 5% in a day, let alone 12%.

And Disney isn’t a small, medium, or even large company. It is a giant company. It’s the 18th-biggest publicly traded American company—bigger than Coca Cola, McDonald’s, and Wells Fargo.
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