Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
America's Lurch Away From Free Market Capitalism / Stock-Markets / Government Intervention
By: Kurt_Kasun
The cover of this week's The Economist magazine reads "Unhappy America". To the authors' credit the article goes beyond the typical Bush-bashing and identifies several factors at play. They were treading down the right path when they observe that "Lax monetary policy allowed Americans to build up debts and fuelled a housing bubble that had to burst eventually." But rather than going into further detail in addressing the subject of easy money, the chief culprit of the financial mess we will be in for years, the authors turn their sights on the need for education, healthcare, and other reforms. The authors exercised relative restraint in assessing America's lurch away from free-market capitalism in the wake of the housing market bailout, the Fannie (NYSE: FNM ) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE ) backstop, the special protected status 17 financial companies are receiving against naked short sales, etc. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Plunge Protection Team Rescues Wall Street Using Bank Window of Deceit / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Jim_Willie_CB
As vacation season approaches in the Untied States and Canada , the task of reading should give way to looking at pictures to tell a story, or gazing at scenery from a lodge or campground, or lazy afternoons at the beach. Among the many stories out there in the financial ethos, the one that strikes as most important is the bank sector. The selective enforcement of restrictions on shorting bank stocks sticks out like a child suffering acromegaly (Frankenstein disease) in deformity. Its blatant criminality has given the US financial sector its latest (and not last) black eye. This one is a loud banner of corruption waved for the entire world to see, put in the open. In fact, one can easily make the argument that price controls have finally come into the open. More on this in the August Hat Trick Letter. For the financial sector, price controls elevate prices of various securities. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Institutional "Core Holdings" Warning to Bullish Investors / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
We have spoken at length about the importance of Institutional investors vs. the stock market. The key element of importance was the fact that Institutions control well over 50% of any day's typical volume. So, the market follows the trend of what Institutions are doing with their "core holdings". Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Nasdaq Q's Testing Key Resistance / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The time of truth for the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ), which have spiked to the upside off of yesterday's pivot low at 44.21, and are nearing a test of key resistance between 45.60 and 46.00. If hurdled, the Q's will breakout of a month-long base pattern that will trigger potential to a minimum projected target of 47.80-48.20. A downside violation of 44.20 will wreck the entire rounded base pattern and argue for a retest of the July low.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Financial and Economic Crisis Deepening as House Prices Falls Continue / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $927.70, up $1.30 and silver was up 8 cents to $17.40. Gold rose slightly in Asian trading before falling. It fell slightly in early trading in Europe but remains above yesterdays close.Financial and Economic Crisis Deepening as House Prices Continue to Fall - With the credit, financial and economic crisis clearly deepening as warned of by the IMF yesterday, gold will likely remain firm in the coming sessions due to continuing safe haven demand.
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Monday, July 28, 2008
Stock Market Battles Between Technical's and Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stocks bounced from extreme oversold levels just over a week ago, the imminent low was called for the Dow index on the 14th July, which laid a rough road map for a stocks rally into September 2008. However technical's are at the mercy of two key fundamentals and those are corporate earnings and the deepening credit crisis. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
Misplaced Stock Market Optimism Signals Crash Potential / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Captain_Hook
As discussed in previous commentary, despite the dire realities affecting the global economy, it appears investors are not heeding the warnings. Sure, some people are paralyzed like a deer in the headlights, where you can't blame them if they are just waking up to the reality of what lies before us. However, these still appear to be the few, with most still in denial concerning future prospects for the economy and markets. This is evidenced in gold and silver's sluggish performance of late. It should be doing far better as an alternative, but again, the public does not see the need to buy it yet. Can you blame them however, with the incessant cheerleading and gaming that the media (CNBC in particular) pawns off as analysis? Exposed long enough to this kind of thing it's bound to have an effect – that's just common sense. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
FTSE 100 Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis into End 2008 / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Global stock markets have performed abysmally during the year to date, with many of the worlds stock markets having triggered technical bear markets on falls of more than 20% from their 2007 peaks. The FTSE 100 index is no exception, which triggered a bear market just over a week ago. However a bounce ensued from the oversold state which was anticipated in the analysis for the Dow Jones on 14th of July which called for an imminent bottom for the stock markets and a volatile trend higher into September 2008 for an advance of approx 10%.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Dow Jones Stocks Index Major Deviation from Presidential Cycle / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014 has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed and remains a low probability.
SPX: Intermediate trend - It is possible that the intermediate term correction was completed at 1201. More likely, this is only a counter-trend rally which probably has a little farther to go.
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Sunday, July 27, 2008
Stock Market Short-term Overbought But Lows Should Hold / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Since the low, a week ago last Tuesday, new lows have all but disappeared.
Short Term - The market is overbought. A variety of short term indicators hit their highest levels in a while.
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Sunday, July 27, 2008
Stock Market Roller Coaster- Forecasting the Markets, Where Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Financial markets witnessed another roller-coaster week as renewed concerns about the global economy and the health of the financial sector surfaced, resulting in a mixed week for world stock and bond markets, an improved US dollar and continued weakness in oil and commodities.
US stocks plummeted on Thursday after two days of gains as investors' recent optimism was dented by renewed doubts about financials stocks, manifesting in the sector dropping 6.8% – its largest one-day decline in more than eight years.
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Sunday, July 27, 2008
Have the Stock Markets Reached a Bottom? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Adam_Perl
The financial markets bounced back and forth last week, affected by a wave of economic data and earnings from a few of the largest names in the U.S market. The biggest surprise came out on Friday as the housing sector showed that it still has some fight left in it, with new and existing home sales - beating analyst's estimates. As the housing crisis is one of the major causes of the current economic situation, it is only legitimate to think that if the current housing crisis improves, the economy will regain its strength, heading back on track. Then again, is this a valid conclusion or only wishful thinking? Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Stocks Primary Bear Market Trend and Crude Oils Unsustainable Advance / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Tim_Wood
In late June I posted an article here explaining that Crude Oil was in an unsustainable parabolic spike. Then, on July 15th I had a short-term sell signal that immediately evolved into a sell signal of intermediate degree. The question now is whether or not this intermediate-term sell signal further evolves into marking an even longer-term top, or if it is a mere correction in the path of an even longer-term advance. Monitoring the Cycle Turn Indicator at the various levels will be key at answering this question. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Fed by Falling Earnings Expectations / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
By: John_Mauldin
- Earnings and Mr. Bear
- Earnings Before Bad Stuff
- How Ugly Can it Get?
- A Lean Mean Reversion Machine
- Some Thoughts on Energy
"The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run." - Benjamin Graham
The voting part of the equation is tempered by fear and greed. It is largely emotional, although investors like to think of themselves as rational players. That emotion is driven by views of the future. If you can be confident of large and growing returns, you are less likely to be swayed by the erratic movements of a stock. But as confidence wanes? Well, that is the stuff that bear markets are made of.
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Saturday, July 26, 2008
Financial Stocks Bottom, is Wall Street Living in Fantasy land? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: My daughters love Fantasyland at Walt Disney World. The two-and-a-half year old is a fan of Cinderella's merry-go-round, while my five-and-a-half year old likes Dumbo's flying elephant ride. Heck, if they had their way, my girls would go to Fantasyland every year.
But even that wouldn't be enough for Wall Street's big money managers. They seem to head back to "Financial Fantasyland" once every few months. And the latest trip has been a real doozy.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
IndyMac Checks and Stocks Bounce, Commodities Deflate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The fear, the hassle, the long lines in the hot sun, and now the wait . Many IndyMac customers who are moving their money to another bank won't be able to access all of their funds for more than a week. By law, the other banks must make IndyMac cashier's check deposits up to $5,000 available for withdrawal in one business day. But any amount over that can be held up to nine business days. It is reported that some banks are not taking IndyMac checks at all.
An FDIC takeover of a bank is no fun for the depositors. Even though the accounts are insured up to $100,000, the FDIC can only piecemeal out withdrawals until they have settled their audits. The inconvenience factor is very high. That is yet another reason for doing due diligence on your own bank or credit union before the authorities have stepped in.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Broadening Top Megaphone Pattern Predicted Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
“The Jaws of Death” - The following chart was shown regularly throughout 2007, as we made the point that stocks, specifically the Dow Industrials, had traced out a huge, ominous, major Broadening Top pattern which suggested a long and sharp plunge would follow.
Here is what we said in the August 2007 expanded weekend issue: “We researched and discovered that almost all the major stock market tops of the past century were marked by a Broadening Top pattern . This pattern, also know as a Megaphone , which also looks like a set of jaws, is uniquely characterized by two mirroring boundary lines. The top boundary line is ascending; the bottom boundary line is descending.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Phases / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
In a bull market, everyone ignores the greed and fraud that running rampant. No one wants to take away the spiked punch, even after it is perfectly clear that everyone is drunk. The party continues long after any reasonable person might have expected the party to end. Eventually the party goers all pass out on the floor and the pool of greater fools exhausts itself. In a bear market, there are more distinct, readily observable phases.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Profit From the Trillion Dollar U.S. Budget Deficit / Stock-Markets / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The federal budget deficit hasn't received a lot of press lately, what with all the worries about the U.S. financial system, the home mortgage market, and the rescues that might be necessary to save both. In fact, it's a bad sign, since the Bush administration and the Democrats in Congress have joint responsibility for keeping the budget deficit under control, so they would both be crowing about it if they were doing a good job. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2008
Unwinding Yen Carry Trade Feeding Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Richard_Gorton
The yen carry trade unwound as Martin Crutsinger Associated Press related the National Association of Realtor Report that sales of existing homes fell more sharply than expected in June. Sales dropped by 2.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million units which left sales 15.5 percent below where they were a year ago. The drop in sales pushed inventories of unsold single-family homes and condominiums to 4.49 million units. That represented a 11.1 month supply at the June sales pace, the second highest level in the past 24 years. Read full article... Read full article...