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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Avi_Gilburt

Before you begin reading this article, I want to warn you that it is quite lengthy and also recaps some of our analysis over the past 20 months. So, if this will offend you or you don't want to hear that, feel free to stop reading right now.

I have been writing for Seeking Alpha now for over a decade. And, during that time, I certainly have had my share of critics. I have been told that I do not understand the markets I track. I have been called names like "insane," "dimwit," "charlatan," and "snake oil salesman." And, I have been told that my "squiggly line" analysis cannot foretell anything, is "absurd," "chart magic," and "highly unmeaningful."

And, these are just some of the comments I received over the last 20 months alone, as you can see for yourself:

Are You As Foolish As Most Market Participants?

So, it has certainly been an interesting past 20 months, in addition to the last decade.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: EWI

It's been noted before in these pages that ...

... Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined

That was an April CNBC headline.

That remains an astounding fact to contemplate and a testimony to a widespread cavalier sentiment toward risk. The basic attitude is that stocks almost always go up.

Well, nearly a half year since that CNBC headline published, the public's interest in stocks has remained intense.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern?

For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.

The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 22, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Annual Percent Change

The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 20, 2021

US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The first thesis is that when the dollar and yields are rising then stocks should be falling because it is seen as being deflationary, risk off. The actual correlation is basically 50/50, a coin flip. So a rising dollar and yields is a con flip for stock market weakness.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators are starting to get cold feet and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or forced closures of their losing shorts due to failure to meet margin calls, probably more of the former than the latter.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? / Stock-Markets / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets pulled back a bit this week as the U.S. dollar strengthened versus foreign currencies.

In other markets, the rising dollar index put downward pressure on crude oil and gasoline futures this week. Consumers who have been experiencing pain at the pump should get a bit of a reprieve in the days ahead.

But it could be short lived. The same government policies that helped drive gas prices higher this year are still in place: Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus coupled with disincentives for domestic energy production.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"Some indicators are making records"

It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.

For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.

Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.

Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018:

  • Bonds were trading lower
  • Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows
  • Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates started to rise a bit
  • and the Stock market rallied to new all-time highs

All of these are components of a late Spring or early Summer type of Kondratieff Season.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 18, 2021

What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.

COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends

Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.

Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.

AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.

Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This is the fourth and final part of my extensive analysis that maps a stock markets trend forecast into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season

Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!

Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis

Contents:

  • Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
  • Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
  • US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
  • US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
  • Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
  • Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Weakening Stock Market Breadth
  • Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
  • FANG Stocks
  • Margin Debt
  • Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Dow Annual Percent Change
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
  • Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Short-term Seasonal Trend
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
  • 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
  • Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
  • Investing fundamentals
  • IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
  • Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
  • CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
  • Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
  • Aukus Ruckus
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The long-term trend continues unimpeded but could be challenged in early 2022. 

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend which could continue into early 2022.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 15, 2021

Stock Market Inflation Consequences - S&P Dividend Yield vs CPI / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.

I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.

And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:

(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.

S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.

Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.

Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 14, 2021

US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Stock Market AI mega-trend Stocks Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in this video - the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 12, 2021

How Emerging Markets ETF Followed a Classic Elliott Wave Pattern / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

Here's what happened after the completion of a "bullish triangle"

A Charles Schwab survey shows that 15% of today's retail investors started investing in 2020.

And, regarding 2021, an August 2 CNBC headline said:

New investors are jumping into the market

So, when you combine the influx from this year and last, that adds up to a lot of new investors.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - China Crisis, Stagflation, Stocks Bubble, Reverse Repo... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.

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