Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 27, 2023
Natural Gas: Here's What Happened After a "Double Top" / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: EWI
A key technical pattern warns of a reversal
It probably won't be a surprise to you that Elliott Wave International is an advocate of technical analysis. After all, the Elliott wave method is a form of technical analysis.
You probably know that the term "technical analysis" refers to analyzing the behavior of financial markets themselves -- generally by studying charts -- as opposed to "fundamental" analysis, which is based on news and events outside of financial markets.
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Anti-Gold Bias: The Big Secret Wall Street DOESN'T Want You to Know / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
By Stefan Gleason,
Last year was one of the worst on record for a conventional stock and bond portfolio. The major stock and bond market indexes both fell by double digits.
Investors who were diversified into physical precious metals fared much better. While it wasn't a banner year for gold and silver markets, they eked out slight gains – which translated into a massive outperformance versus conventional financial assets.
Unfortunately, conventional financial advice continues to keep most investors 100% allocated to financial assets with zero diversification into hard assets.
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Gold’s Battle to Break the 2011 High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Between 2020 and now, quite a lot happened, quite a lot of money was printed, and we saw a war breaking out in Europe. Yet gold failed to rally to new highs.Gold Had Chances
In fact, it’s trading very close to its 2011 high, which tells you something about the strength of this market. It’s almost absent.
Truth be told, what we see in gold is quite in tune with what we saw after the 2011 top, and in particular, shortly after the 2012 top. We can also spot similarities between now and 2008. The long-term gold price chart below provides details.
Actually, since gold is now practically just where it was a week ago, my Monday’s description of the below gold chart remains up-to-date:
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Friday, January 20, 2023
Gold stocks are not yet unique, but that’s coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold stocks have been among the leaders of the Q1 rally, but are not yet unique
It seems that all too often lately the gold mining sector is in tow with commodities in general and broad global stocks in its ups and downs. As a leader, but not THE leader of the rally that is fine for now as long as we’re still on the back end of the originally projected Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets.
But if I am correct in the view of a real bull market in gold and especially the miners, at some point this will have to change. Gold miners are counter-cyclical businesses and the fact that their cost inputs like energy, materials and even human resources are rising in cost is not positive. While the fact that gold has been outperforming most of these for the last 3 to 6 months is positive, the real play will begin when investors look at their portfolios, beaten to a pulp, and see only one sector (or one of a very few sectors) rising while a bear market resumes in cyclical, risk ‘on’ assets.
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Friday, January 20, 2023
Biden Officials Float $1 Trillion Platinum Coin Scheme to Monetize Debt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
By Mike Gleason:
As global elites gathered in Davos this week to discuss their plans for controlling the world economy, the gold market is delivering an alternative message.
Among the issues being discussed at this year's World Economic Forum is that of central bank digital currency. A presentation at the meeting based on research funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation called for central bank digital currency to serve the goal of "redesigning access to money."
Technocrats believe that they can reshape the world economy to serve their grandiose objectives -- whether it's redistributing wealth or eliminating fossil fuels or reducing the world population.
Thursday, January 19, 2023
Gold Price Is Up $300 Since November – So What?! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD HEADLINES – UP $300
Advisors and marketers are ecstatic:…
“Nothing will be able to stop gold when it breaks to a new all-time high” or “On the cusp of a breakout where gold can go up to $5000” are two examples of recent exclamations about prospects for higher gold prices. The euphoria can be contagious.
I’m sure that makes gold bulls feel optimistic. After all, they have been passengers on an amusement ride that wasn’t what they expected. After being strapped in for a rocket launch, they found themselves on a roller coaster that was in the midst of a downward descent.
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Thursday, January 19, 2023
Why Oil Prices Fell in the Face of "Supply Shock" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Crude should be at the forefront of a..."Looking back on 2022, one of the biggest fears about oil was that prices would skyrocket even more than they did due to a disruption in supply from Russia.
Of course, Russia has been a major world supplier of oil, but after Russia invaded Ukraine, many global financial institutions refused to back transactions involving Russian oil.
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Monday, January 16, 2023
Copper and Gold miners are leading the Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Gary_Tanashian
Back in October we began to plan the prospect of a relief rally that would be fueled by over-bearish sentiment (contrary bullish), ‘Fed hawk’ relief as we anticipated inflation signals to ease, and a post (mid-term) election seasonal pattern that is bullish for stocks. This public article had a lot to say about that on November 10th:
For the purposes of this week’s public article, we’ll leave aside the mad science (macro indicators) that NFTRH subscribers were subjected to in support of the bull thesis along the way and also leave aside the individual equities and portfolio strategy shaped by the indicators. But the macro stuff is going to be ever more important going forward. These indicators are, shall we say, absolutely fascinating in their guidance for the balance of 2023.
Here we simplify and just look at two broad market leaders. Copper and gold, copper miners and gold miners. While I am bullish on gold and by extension very bullish on the gold miners, which will fundamentally leverage the 2023 macro, to this point the Q1, 2023 rally is as expected and it literally includes the world.
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Saturday, January 14, 2023
Gold Buying Only Starting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has powered higher smartly over the past couple months, achieving big gains. But this gold buying is only starting, implying this young upleg still has a long way to run yet. Speculators’ gold-futures buying remains modest, while much-larger identifiable investment buying hasn’t even begun. Traders will have to increasingly chase gold’s upside momentum to restore normal portfolio allocations, really amplifying its gains.
Gold has been on a tear lately, blasting higher to major technical breakouts. Between late September to midweek, the yellow metal surged up 15.7% in 3.5 months! Nearly all those big gains accrued since early November alone, when gold carved a deep double-bottom. During this young upleg’s rapid ascent, gold shattered its downtrend resistance and 200-day moving average. Now it is flashing a potent buy signal.
A powerful Golden Cross is occurring in gold, with its 50dma crossing back above its 200dma from below! This is one of the most-effective and most-bullish indicators in all of technical analysis, arguing this young gold upleg is only getting started. More importantly, gold’s supply-and-demand fundamentals align with and corroborate this rosy outlook. Impressively the great majority of usual gold-upleg-driving buying remains!
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Monday, January 09, 2023
Gold’s Nasty Divorce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
Gold’s nasty divorce from the U.S. dollar was finalized in August 1971 when President Richard Nixon suspended any further convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold by non-U.S. citizens. That action removed any remaining links between the dollar and gold.
Without convertibility, any official price for gold became meaningless. At that time, the official U.S. dollar price of gold was raised from $40.00 oz to $42.50; but nobody paid much attention.
The U.S. dollar price of gold began a decade-long march that saw a twenty-fold increase culminating in an intra-day high of $843 oz. in January 1980. Gold had finally broken free of its tether.
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Sunday, January 08, 2023
Will Gold Manage to Break Above Its Mid-2022 Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold started this year with a quick rally, but it was mostly erased. It’s still above its mid-2022 high, but will it stay there for much longer?
Is It All Bearish?
Saturday, January 07, 2023
What Triggered Silver Price Hiccup on the 5th of January? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Fed officials flexed their muscles during the last FOMC meeting. Silver tripped and fell in response, but that didn’t last long – why?The hawkish force was strong with this FOMC! The minutes from the last meeting of the Committee in December offered almost no dovish signals. In particular, the document doesn’t mention anything about the Fed’s pivot. Actually, we can read that “no participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023”. That’s bad news for the precious metals, such as silver and gold.
What’s more, the minutes revealed the FOMC participants’ worries about the dovish hopes of investors. The Fed decided to emphasize that it’s not going to change its monetary policy and cut interest rates anytime soon, so investors shouldn’t bet on such a scenario. As the key paragraph says,
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Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Is the US Dollar Building Strength to Push Gold Prices Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USD Index is a key driver of gold prices (apart from real interest rates). How much strength has it shown recently?
In yesterday’s analysis, I compared the current situation in the precious metals to the one in stocks that we saw last year. It appears that the similarity remains up-to-date as gold is up in today’s pre-market trading (at the moment of writing these words).
As you may recall, last year, stocks didn’t decline until the second session of the year. Of course, the history doesn’t have repeat itself to the letter, but I wouldn’t make too much of the upswing in the first few days of the year. Here’s what we wrote about this matter yesterday:
Do you remember the “January rally” that we saw in early 2022? It lasted less than two days. Stocks moved higher in the first session of the year, and they formed an intraday top during the second session of the year.
Monday, January 02, 2023
Outrageous Gold Price Prediction for 2023 by Saxo Bank / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold will rocket to $3,000 next year – at least that’s what Saxo Bank says. Does this prediction make any sense though?Did you hope gold would break finally $2,000 in 2023? What if I told you that gold is going to soar to at least $3,000? Have I gone mad? No; that’s not my forecast, I only summarize the Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions for 2023.
According to the publication, next year, the markets will finally discover “that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future”. In the spring, China will fully pivot away from its zero-Covid policy, unleashing demand and a new surge in commodity prices. Inflation will soar again, but this time it will coincide with the Fed’s easy monetary policy amid elevated market volatility and a recession. It will then become clear that the US central bank will fail on its 2% inflation mandate, sending gold prices much higher. The yellow metal is said to be additionally supported by the rising global liquidity and “geopolitical backdrop of an increasing war economy mentality”.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold Is It Weird to Have Two Corrective Upswings Instead of One? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Here's how history rhymes in the precious metals market and what we can glean from recent movements in gold, silver, and mining stocks.
History tends to repeat itself. Not to the letter, but in general. The reason is that while economic circumstances change and technology advances, the decisions to buy and sell are still mostly based on two key emotions: fear and greed. They don’t change, and once similar things happen, people’s emotions emerge in similar ways, thus making specific historical events repeat themselves to a certain extent.
For example, right now, gold stocks are declining similarly to how they did in 2008 and in 2012-2013.
This is an extreme underperformance of gold stocks, similar to what we saw in 2013 before the worst of the slide. This is an extreme underperformance of gold stocks – something that we’ve also seen in 2013 before the biggest part of the slide.
Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold Will Reflect Inflation 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold largely ignored inflation raging out of control in 2022. Despite the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s, history’s ultimate inflation hedge disappointed. But that unsustainable anomaly driven by extreme Fed rate hikes catapulting the US dollar parabolic won’t last. Inevitably prevailing gold prices will adjust much higher to reflect this red-hot inflation fueled by epic money-supply growth. That’s very bullish for 2023.
During this past year, the primary US inflation gauge recorded extremes not seen in four decades. The monthly headline Consumer Price Index averaged blistering 8.1% year-over-year surges, never printing lower than 7.1%. June 2022’s staggering 9.1% peak proved the hottest CPI since way back in November 1981, fully 40.6 years earlier! And the CPI has been heavily watered down since, lowballed for political reasons.
Such serious inflation should’ve lit a fire under gold, fueling massive investment demand. Gold got off to a strong start in 2022, surging up 12.1% year-to-date in early March. But that was a geopolitical spike on Russia invading Ukraine, which wasn’t sustainable. From there gold collapsed 20.9% over the next 6.6 months into late September. That left it down a shocking 11.3% YTD in the worst inflation year since 1981!
That gaping gold-inflation disconnect made no sense, leaving investors increasingly bearish. But gold’s brutal mid-2022 plunge was an extreme anomaly driven by the Fed scrambling to stuff that inflation genie back in the bottle. Between mid-March to early November, the Federal Open Market Committee hiked its federal-funds rate an astounding 375 basis points. That included a shocking streak of four monster 75bp hikes!
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold, Silver, & Platinum Had a Good New Year 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are finishing out a choppy 2022 on an up note. A strong fourth quarter is pushing both gold and silver prices back up into positive territory for the year.
The yellow metal got off to a hot start in 2022, reaching as high as $2,050 an ounce in March. But it suffered a severe pullback in the second and third quarters. A rising U.S. dollar exchange rate amid aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes drove futures traders to dump precious metals contracts.
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve note dollar has begun trending lower versus foreign currencies – spurring the gold market to pick up some steam.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Silver: What Happened in 2022, and What Could Happen in 2023? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was an especially intense year, and silver held on tight. If 2023 is even more intense than 2022, silver won’t have a choice but to rally.A lot has happened this year. Russia invaded Ukraine. North Korea fired off missile after missile. Latin America turned to the left. The United Kingdom lost a queen, gained a king, and saw three Prime Ministers in Downing Street. President Xi Jinping was re-elected for an unprecedented third term as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, cementing his grip on power. Protests have been raging across Iran. The world population crossed 8 billion. On a personal note, my favorite sportsman and probably the best tennis player in history, Roger Federer, ended his brilliant career.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
What Signals Do Gold, Silver, and Stocks Send to Investors? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the statistics scream, investors, often blinded by emotions, do not hear them. However, since history seems to rhyme, what do gold, silver, and mining stocks have in store for us?
What a boring month!
At least for those who monitor the performance of junior mining stocks. It’s Dec. 29, and the monthly price change for the GDXJ ETF is $0.15 (0.41%). That’s how much higher the GDXJ is now than it was at the end of November. That’s next to nothing – almost a “statistical error.”
Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Despite the War in Europe, Gold Remains Below Its 2011 High / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Can gold's recent short-term rally be considered bullish, or can we expect a decline like in 2008?
Is Silver Really Strong?
Gold and silver are moving higher today, but nothing really changed despite that. Silver moved to its previous highs, while gold didn’t (chart courtesy of https://GoldPriceForecast.com).