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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, January 19, 2023

Why Oil Prices Fell in the Face of "Supply Shock" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

"Crude should be at the forefront of a..."

Looking back on 2022, one of the biggest fears about oil was that prices would skyrocket even more than they did due to a disruption in supply from Russia.

Of course, Russia has been a major world supplier of oil, but after Russia invaded Ukraine, many global financial institutions refused to back transactions involving Russian oil.

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Commodities

Monday, January 16, 2023

Copper and Gold miners are leading the Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Gary_Tanashian

Back in October we began to plan the prospect of a relief rally that would be fueled by over-bearish sentiment (contrary bullish), ‘Fed hawk’ relief as we anticipated inflation signals to ease, and a post (mid-term) election seasonal pattern that is bullish for stocks. This public article had a lot to say about that on November 10th:

Q4-Q1 plan engages

For the purposes of this week’s public article, we’ll leave aside the mad science (macro indicators) that NFTRH subscribers were subjected to in support of the bull thesis along the way and also leave aside the individual equities and portfolio strategy shaped by the indicators. But the macro stuff is going to be ever more important going forward. These indicators are, shall we say, absolutely fascinating in their guidance for the balance of 2023.

Here we simplify and just look at two broad market leaders. Copper and gold, copper miners and gold miners. While I am bullish on gold and by extension very bullish on the gold miners, which will fundamentally leverage the 2023 macro, to this point the Q1, 2023 rally is as expected and it literally includes the world.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 14, 2023

Gold Buying Only Starting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has powered higher smartly over the past couple months, achieving big gains.  But this gold buying is only starting, implying this young upleg still has a long way to run yet.  Speculators’ gold-futures buying remains modest, while much-larger identifiable investment buying hasn’t even begun.  Traders will have to increasingly chase gold’s upside momentum to restore normal portfolio allocations, really amplifying its gains.

Gold has been on a tear lately, blasting higher to major technical breakouts.  Between late September to midweek, the yellow metal surged up 15.7% in 3.5 months!  Nearly all those big gains accrued since early November alone, when gold carved a deep double-bottom.  During this young upleg’s rapid ascent, gold shattered its downtrend resistance and 200-day moving average.  Now it is flashing a potent buy signal.

A powerful Golden Cross is occurring in gold, with its 50dma crossing back above its 200dma from below!  This is one of the most-effective and most-bullish indicators in all of technical analysis, arguing this young gold upleg is only getting started.  More importantly, gold’s supply-and-demand fundamentals align with and corroborate this rosy outlook.  Impressively the great majority of usual gold-upleg-driving buying remains!

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Commodities

Monday, January 09, 2023

Gold’s Nasty Divorce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold’s nasty divorce from the U.S. dollar was finalized in August 1971 when President Richard Nixon suspended any further convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold by non-U.S. citizens. That action removed any remaining links between the dollar and gold.

Without convertibility, any official price for gold became meaningless. At that time, the official U.S. dollar price of gold was raised from $40.00 oz to $42.50; but nobody paid much attention.

The U.S. dollar price of gold began a decade-long march that saw a twenty-fold increase culminating in an intra-day high of $843 oz. in January 1980. Gold had finally broken free of its tether.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 08, 2023

Will Gold Manage to Break Above Its Mid-2022 Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold started this year with a quick rally, but it was mostly erased. It’s still above its mid-2022 high, but will it stay there for much longer?

Is It All Bearish?

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Commodities

Saturday, January 07, 2023

What Triggered Silver Price Hiccup on the 5th of January? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Fed officials flexed their muscles during the last FOMC meeting. Silver tripped and fell in response, but that didn’t last long – why?

The hawkish force was strong with this FOMC! The minutes from the last meeting of the Committee in December offered almost no dovish signals. In particular, the document doesn’t mention anything about the Fed’s pivot. Actually, we can read that “no participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023”. That’s bad news for the precious metals, such as silver and gold.

What’s more, the minutes revealed the FOMC participants’ worries about the dovish hopes of investors. The Fed decided to emphasize that it’s not going to change its monetary policy and cut interest rates anytime soon, so investors shouldn’t bet on such a scenario. As the key paragraph says,
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Commodities

Wednesday, January 04, 2023

Is the US Dollar Building Strength to Push Gold Prices Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The USD Index is a key driver of gold prices (apart from real interest rates). How much strength has it shown recently?

In yesterday’s analysis, I compared the current situation in the precious metals to the one in stocks that we saw last year. It appears that the similarity remains up-to-date as gold is up in today’s pre-market trading (at the moment of writing these words).

As you may recall, last year, stocks didn’t decline until the second session of the year. Of course, the history doesn’t have repeat itself to the letter, but I wouldn’t make too much of the upswing in the first few days of the year. Here’s what we wrote about this matter yesterday:

Do you remember the “January rally” that we saw in early 2022? It lasted less than two days. Stocks moved higher in the first session of the year, and they formed an intraday top during the second session of the year.

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Commodities

Monday, January 02, 2023

Outrageous Gold Price Prediction for 2023 by Saxo Bank / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold will rocket to $3,000 next year – at least that’s what Saxo Bank says. Does this prediction make any sense though?

Did you hope gold would break finally $2,000 in 2023? What if I told you that gold is going to soar to at least $3,000? Have I gone mad? No; that’s not my forecast, I only summarize the Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions for 2023.

According to the publication, next year, the markets will finally discover “that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future”. In the spring, China will fully pivot away from its zero-Covid policy, unleashing demand and a new surge in commodity prices. Inflation will soar again, but this time it will coincide with the Fed’s easy monetary policy amid elevated market volatility and a recession. It will then become clear that the US central bank will fail on its 2% inflation mandate, sending gold prices much higher. The yellow metal is said to be additionally supported by the rising global liquidity and “geopolitical backdrop of an increasing war economy mentality”.
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Commodities

Saturday, December 31, 2022

Gold Is It Weird to Have Two Corrective Upswings Instead of One? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Here's how history rhymes in the precious metals market and what we can glean from recent movements in gold, silver, and mining stocks.

History tends to repeat itself. Not to the letter, but in general. The reason is that while economic circumstances change and technology advances, the decisions to buy and sell are still mostly based on two key emotions: fear and greed. They don’t change, and once similar things happen, people’s emotions emerge in similar ways, thus making specific historical events repeat themselves to a certain extent.

For example, right now, gold stocks are declining similarly to how they did in 2008 and in 2012-2013. 

This is an extreme underperformance of gold stocks, similar to what we saw in 2013 before the worst of the slide. This is an extreme underperformance of gold stocks – something that we’ve also seen in 2013 before the biggest part of the slide.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, December 31, 2022

Gold Will Reflect Inflation 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold largely ignored inflation raging out of control in 2022.  Despite the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s, history’s ultimate inflation hedge disappointed.  But that unsustainable anomaly driven by extreme Fed rate hikes catapulting the US dollar parabolic won’t last.  Inevitably prevailing gold prices will adjust much higher to reflect this red-hot inflation fueled by epic money-supply growth.  That’s very bullish for 2023.

During this past year, the primary US inflation gauge recorded extremes not seen in four decades.  The monthly headline Consumer Price Index averaged blistering 8.1% year-over-year surges, never printing lower than 7.1%.  June 2022’s staggering 9.1% peak proved the hottest CPI since way back in November 1981, fully 40.6 years earlier!  And the CPI has been heavily watered down since, lowballed for political reasons.

Such serious inflation should’ve lit a fire under gold, fueling massive investment demand.  Gold got off to a strong start in 2022, surging up 12.1% year-to-date in early March.  But that was a geopolitical spike on Russia invading Ukraine, which wasn’t sustainable.  From there gold collapsed 20.9% over the next 6.6 months into late September.  That left it down a shocking 11.3% YTD in the worst inflation year since 1981!

That gaping gold-inflation disconnect made no sense, leaving investors increasingly bearish.  But gold’s brutal mid-2022 plunge was an extreme anomaly driven by the Fed scrambling to stuff that inflation genie back in the bottle.  Between mid-March to early November, the Federal Open Market Committee hiked its federal-funds rate an astounding 375 basis points.  That included a shocking streak of four monster 75bp hikes!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, December 31, 2022

Gold, Silver, & Platinum Had a Good New Year 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are finishing out a choppy 2022 on an up note. A strong fourth quarter is pushing both gold and silver prices back up into positive territory for the year.

The yellow metal got off to a hot start in 2022, reaching as high as $2,050 an ounce in March. But it suffered a severe pullback in the second and third quarters. A rising U.S. dollar exchange rate amid aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes drove futures traders to dump precious metals contracts.

In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve note dollar has begun trending lower versus foreign currencies – spurring the gold market to pick up some steam.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, December 31, 2022

Silver: What Happened in 2022, and What Could Happen in 2023? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It was an especially intense year, and silver held on tight. If 2023 is even more intense than 2022, silver won’t have a choice but to rally.

A lot has happened this year. Russia invaded Ukraine. North Korea fired off missile after missile. Latin America turned to the left. The United Kingdom lost a queen, gained a king, and saw three Prime Ministers in Downing Street. President Xi Jinping was re-elected for an unprecedented third term as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, cementing his grip on power. Protests have been raging across Iran. The world population crossed 8 billion. On a personal note, my favorite sportsman and probably the best tennis player in history, Roger Federer, ended his brilliant career.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, December 30, 2022

What Signals Do Gold, Silver, and Stocks Send to Investors? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While the statistics scream, investors, often blinded by emotions, do not hear them. However, since history seems to rhyme, what do gold, silver, and mining stocks have in store for us?

What a boring month!

At least for those who monitor the performance of junior mining stocks. It’s Dec. 29, and the monthly price change for the GDXJ ETF is $0.15 (0.41%). That’s how much higher the GDXJ is now than it was at the end of November. That’s next to nothing – almost a “statistical error.”

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Despite the War in Europe, Gold Remains Below Its 2011 High / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Can gold's recent short-term rally be considered bullish, or can we expect a decline like in 2008?

Is Silver Really Strong?

Gold and silver are moving higher today, but nothing really changed despite that. Silver moved to its previous highs, while gold didn’t (chart courtesy of https://GoldPriceForecast.com).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, December 26, 2022

Gold Price Upleg Still Young / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has been powering higher on balance for a couple months now, surging to major breakouts.  That upside momentum is improving sentiment, with traders growing more bullish on gold’s potential.  That is well-placed, as this upleg remains young.  Major gold uplegs are three-stage events, each having distinct drivers.  The first and smallest stage isn’t even finished yet, which bodes very well for gold and its miners’ stocks.

The yellow metal’s latest upleg was stealthily born at panic-grade lows in late September.  Over the next 2.8 months into this week, gold powered an impressive 12.1% higher!  Yet that remains small and young by recent-upleg standards.  Gold’s previous four uplegs in the last few years averaged way-bigger 28.8% gains over much-longer durations of 7.9 months.  This current upleg is likely only getting started, with a lot to prove.

Major gold uplegs evolve through three stages of specific buying from particular traders.  They are born when gold-futures speculators buy to cover short contracts, which is stage one.  After gold falls to deep lows, some catalyst spooks these guys.  So they rush to close out their risky hyper-leveraged downside bets, which is legally required.  That buying soon becomes self-feeding, catapulting gold sharply higher.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, December 23, 2022

The Breakout That’s REALLY Important for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Since the gold market now shows parallels to 2008 and 2013, what can we expect if the correction has just ended?

The USDX's Breakout

The changes that we saw on the charts yesterday were not enough to change anything that I described yesterday, so those comments remain up-to-date. Also, what I covered during yesterday’s live event (I combined the live market analysis with the presentation about the top 3 gold trading techniques – you can see the recording here) remains up-to-date at the moment of writing these words.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, December 23, 2022

Central Banks Wary of U.S. Are Loading Up on Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

Investors got some superficially good news on the economy this week. But it turned out to be bad news for markets.

Although they’ve bounced back a little today, equities and precious metals markets sold off on Thursday following government data showing that the economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter. GDP was revised upward to a 3.2% annual pace from July through September.

Of course, a lot has happened since then, including additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. It will be well into next year before the full impact of higher borrowing costs get reflected in the economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, December 16, 2022

Gold Defies Hawkish Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold defied another hawkish Fed decision this week, consolidating high in its immediate wake.  That was an impressive show of strength, after this extreme Fed tightening cycle hammered gold for a half-year or so.  That strong performance reflects gold-futures speculators’ weakening resolve to keep shorting.  With their long-side selling exhausted, they have massive mean-reversion buying to do which is super-bullish for gold.

Gold was looking really good technically heading into this week’s latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  Since late September, it had blasted 11.5% higher in a powerful rebound on big gold-futures short-covering buying.  That catapulted gold back above its key 200-day moving average on FOMC eve, by the most since mid-June.  Gold was a hair away from a decisive 200dma breakout, after escaping its downtrend.

The FOMC decision itself wasn’t a surprise, with the Fed hiking its federal-funds rate by 50 basis points.  That was a sharp slowdown from the streak of monster 75bp hikes executed at its previous four meetings.  The FOMC statement was virtually unchanged from its last iteration in early November.  With this week’s 50bp hike universally expected, that didn’t faze gold-futures speculators.  They focused on something else.

Once a quarter after every other FOMC decision, the Fed releases its Summary of Economic Projections by individual top Fed officials.  This is better known as the dot plot, since it shows where they see FFR levels heading in the future.  Though notoriously unreliable in predicting where the FFR is actually going according to the Fed chair himself, traders lap that up.  This week it proved more hawkish than expected.

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Commodities

Monday, December 12, 2022

Gold And Silver May Be The Outperforming Assets For 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Avi_Gilburt

When I was younger, I was taught that if you cannot say something nice, don't say anything at all. Well, when many of you have asked why I have not written about metals in quite some time, now you know the reason. But, I think that's about to change.

Before we begin, I want to give you a little background about my history in the metals market.

For those who may not remember the action we experienced in the metals market back in the summer of 2011, the market was going parabolic at the time, with some days seeing $50 increases. And the only arguments at the time were regarding how far beyond $2,000 gold was going to take us.

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Commodities

Sunday, December 11, 2022

As Inflation signals fade, the Gold Mining Stocks sector outperforms / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

The gold mining sector is doing what it should do amid fading inflation

If you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022).

Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not primarily. That compounds with the gold miners, which leverage gold’s standing within the inflated (and periodically deflated) macro. The gold mining sector is not about inflation. As in 2003-2008 the gold miners can rise during an inflationary phase, but as in Q4, 2008 they would then be summarily executed due to poor accumulated fundamentals.

The correction in the gold mining sector from mid-2020 into Q4 of this year was entirely normal to this analysis. What is (or should be) abnormal is excuse making and ghost stories about conspiracy and manipulation to explain why gold miners did so poorly. As you probably know, there is a lot of that out there. It’s tradition in the precious metals complex.

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