Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Should Gold Investors Worry on Dip Below $900 on Dollar Strength? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Andy_Sutton
When in doubt….Fundamentals - There appears to be a need for reassurance right now. A three-day rally in the Dollar has sent Gold below $900/oz. and Silver below $17/oz. There are whispers of currency market intervention, gold market intervention and talk of a Dollar rally. Rest assured, any rally will be a countertrend rally, most likely brief, and mean almost nothing in the grand scheme of things. Ironically, history suggests that the Dollar will rally, based on the unavoidable fact that we are now in a recession. I believe that history will rhyme, but not repeat. The fundamentals to support a sustained Dollar rally simply are not there. Moreover at a fundamental level, nothing has changed. Let's review the major themes and check our scorecard. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Crude Oil Bull Market is Sustainable Due to Supply Fundamentals / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Zeal_LLC
Crude oil is one of the hottest commodities on the planet these days. Almost without respite, it has surged 16% in April alone! It closed at new all-time record highs on 8 of the past 11 trading days. Pushing $120 per barrel now, the fabled $100 price point that the markets feared for so many years now seems modest.
Commodities bulls have been long oil and oil stocks for many years now, so oil's strength isn't too surprising. Naturally we attribute its powerful advance to a global supply and demand imbalance. Oil demand is simply growing a lot faster than oil supply, so higher prices are the only way to retard demand and accelerate production until a new equilibrium price is reached.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
US Hot Dry Summer Forecast Bullish for Energy and Agricultural Investments / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Joseph_Dancy
Several of the sectors we are invested in are extremely weather dependent. The fortunes of the firms in these sectors will hinge to some extent on weather conditions 3-6 months in the future. Firms operating in the agriculture sector are the obvious ones that will be impacted by weather conditions. Less obvious is the impact weather has on the natural gas sector. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Gold Falls to Test Strong Support at $875 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $19.40 to $886.80 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 50 cents to $16.66 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $883.50, £446.51 and €566.38 (from $900.75 £455.85 and €572.09 yesterday).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Crude Oil Heading for $134 During 2008 Despite Near-term Weakness / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Thursday's downward trading of oil brought some relief to the equity markets. Don't expect the decline to last. Technical models are indicating short-term downward pressure until the end of April. As May unfolds, increasing upward pressure should return. The first level of support is at $110 followed by solid support at $100. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Plunging Resource Supplies Results in Soaring Profits / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous
The most powerful stories in fiction, as well as in investing, have always been simple: love, hate and war for the former; demand, supply and basic needs for the latter. And no story fits the bill better than food and agriculture, for which demand is ever present. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Gold Follows Euro Lower On German Economic Confidence Numbers / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD slipped to a fresh three-week low beneath $898 per ounce early Thursday in London , as a sharp bounce in the US Dollar forced a drop in equities, crude oil and the Euro.Short-term US Treasury bonds also capped their eight-day losing streak, however, pushing the two-year yield down to 2.20%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Crude Oil Bulls Show Technical Signs of Weakening / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Black_Swan
There’s not a whole lot of technical analysis you can do when an underlying security or asset is shooting straight up through uncharted territory, record high after record high.
But regardless of the situation, you can always analyze price action one day at a time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
How to Protect Yourself and Profit from the Global Food Price Crisis / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: William_Patalon_III
When the leader of the United Nation's World Food Programme warned that a "silent tsunami" of hunger is sweeping the globe because of soaring food prices, a lot of folks probably viewed it as just another clever sound bite tossed off by a bureaucrat.
Don't you believe it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Gold Falls to Support at $900 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold broke down from its range bound channel yesterday and quickly fell to support at $895-$900 as anticipated. Should gold fall below $900 we could again retest the support of the early April lows of $880. We expect strong support at these levels but there is a possibility that should gold close below $880 we could retest previous resistance at the 1980 nominal high of $850 per ounce.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Crude Oil Tops $119! What's Next ... / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Since trading as low as $50.53 early in 2007, oil prices have exploded higher, stunning the world. Just yesterday, crude jumped to a new all-time high above $119 a barrel!
Consumers would probably be happy just to see oil fall back to $100 a barrel. How sad is that?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Gold Bull Market Drivers: Cheap Money, Rapid Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The two primary engines pushing the US Dollar down are extraordinarily low borrowing costs and extraordinarily high monetary growth. Money is very cheap to borrow, which encourages speculation for basic reason that many investments are rising in price. That covers the demand side for money. The money supply is growing out of control. It is hard to describe any modern day monetary event as like Weimar German times, but this is becoming close. The supply of new money is growing so fast that it is causing internal problems that are not fixable. Prices are rising broadly in the US Economy, since the nation imports everything. Too bad then nation cannot import leaders for government, the financial sector, economic counsel, regulatory bodies, debt rating agencies. While you are at it, import a free press network system.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Gold and Silver Bull Market Chart Bonanza! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In today's chart update I'm going to review the precious metals sector. First I would like to debunk some of the reasons given why the bull run in precious metals is over.
1) The Fed will be done cutting rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Gold Continues Healthy Consolidation Before Next leg Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold remains in lockdown and is range bound in a narrow channel between $910 and $926. A close above or below this channel will likely see gold test support at $880 or challenge resistance at $950 (see Technical Analysis below). Gold was up $7.40 to $922.10 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 27 cents to $17.61 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $916.25, £ 459.50 and €573.95 (from $ 920.75, £464.21 and €576.98 yesterday).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Gold Weakens as Euro and Crude Oil Retreat from All time Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back an overnight rally in early London trade on Wednesday, dropping 0.9% to a low of $914.60 per ounce as the Euro and crude oil both slipped from their new record highs vs. the Dollar.World stock markets lacked direction in volatile trade, while US Treasury bond prices fell for the eighth day running.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
The Mysterious Case of the Commodity Conundrum, Securitization of Commodities and Systemic Concerns (Part 2) / Commodities / Derivatives
By: Mack_Frankfurter
Part 1
"The theories which I have expressed there, and which appear to you to be so chimerical, are really extremely practical—so practical that I depend upon them for my bread and cheese." — Sherlock Holmes, A Study in Scarlet (1888)
The mysterious case of the commodity conundrum is sure to elicit passionate debate on either side of the equation—is the commodity boom due to speculation or fundamentals? By the time you read this, a battle in this dispute will have taken place on April 22, 2008 with the CFTC roundtable on agricultural markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Encouraging Action for Gold Bulls / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Chip_Hanlon
When discussing gold and commodities on CNBC last month , I said I expected gold to underperform commodities such as energy, base metals and agriculture for a period of time. While that scenario has played out and will likely continue to for a little while longer, gold bugs should be encouraged by how the precious metal has performed in recent weeks; while gold was quite overbought on a short-term basis a month ago, it has very quickly moved to a less overbought state while giving back only about 10% of its price as we speak. That's bull market action.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
The Mysterious Case of the Commodity Conundrum, Securitization of Commodities and Systemic Concerns- Part 1 / Commodities / Derivatives
By: Mack_Frankfurter
"The theories which I have expressed there, and which appear to you to be so chimerical, are really extremely practical—so practical that I depend upon them for my bread and cheese." — Sherlock Holmes, A Study in Scarlet (1888)
The mysterious case of the commodity conundrum is sure to elicit passionate debate on either side of the equation—is the commodity boom due to speculation or fundamentals? By the time you read this, a battle in this dispute will have taken place on April 22, 2008 with the CFTC roundtable on agricultural markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Gold Ticks Higher on Nigeria Crude Oil Blockage / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher in the first-half of London trade on Tuesday, holding 0.6% above Monday's low of $912.50 per ounce as crude oil rose to a new record high and government bond prices fell sharply, pushing longer-term interest rates higher.Mining and oil stocks rose in Europe, but banking shares fell after a private-sector rescue of a leading "pfandbrief" lender to Germany's federal-state governments.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 21, 2008
Gold Diverging from the US Dollar? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Have gold prices (NYSE: GLD) stopped responding to the weakness in the dolllar? Lately, it certainly would appear so. Let's notice that since mid-March, the Euro actually has carved-out a "rising wedge" pattern, which depicts a series of horizonal rally peaks (around 1.59.00/85 juxtaposed against a series of rising pullback lows), which are putting upward pressure to thrust the euro above 1.6000 into new all-time high territory. Conversely, we have gold prices ignoring the still-bullish pattern in the euro/$, and instead, in the grasp of a downside correction that points towards additional weakness beneath the 4/01 low at $872 on the way to $850/$820. Why the divergent action? Read full article... Read full article...