Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 28, 2008
How To Invest During Economic Downturns: Commodities versus Stocks / Commodities / Learning to Invest
By: Mary_Rivas
In an article published yesterday (January 23, 2008) in the Financial Times , George Soros stated that a recession in the U.S. is now more or less inevitable. He noted that China , India and some of the oil-producing countries however are in a very strong countertrend. Soros went on to explain that “the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the U.S. and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world. “Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Silver Market Supplies in Surplus? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
I want to address a recent publication which has raised concerns amongst silver investors. It is The Silver Book for 2008 published by the VM Group.
The main item I want to address is the statement in that document that the silver market was in surplus in 2007 by 6,141 tonnes or over 197 million ounces. That is a lot of silver; in fact it constitutes about 18% of their estimated mine and scrap supply for 2007. Does this seem a lot of silver to you? It certainly did to me!
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Monday, January 28, 2008
Gold Boosted by South African Power Outages / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was up $3.50 to $910.50 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday and silver was up 16 cents to $16.41 per ounce. Both surged again in the early hours of Asian trading overnight and gold rose as high as $921.35 and it remains near record highs in early European trading.Gold was up 3.4% last week and silver was up nearly 2% and both are up some 10% year to date. In normal market conditions, correction and consolidation would be expected and likely. However, these are not normal market conditions – and that is putting it mildly.
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Monday, January 28, 2008
Gold Weakens as Stock Markets Slump At Start of Week / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES moved sharply in a $10 range early Monday, hitting $921.50 overnight in Asia – more than 1% above Friday's close – before slipping back to record an AM Fix in London of $916.50 per ounce.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Gold Technical's Suggest Downtrend is Looming / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Despite a 3.4% gain on the week one gets the impression that gold is ready to go lower. That's not what most analysts are saying. Who to trust? I always prefer the charts to tell me where gold is going not where it should go.
GOLD: LONG TERM
The long term continues in its bullish mode with some hints of weakness but no overriding concern. Gold continues to trade well above its long term moving average line and the line continues to slope upwards. The long term momentum indicator continues in its positive zone above its positive sloping trigger line but is showing some minor hint of weakness by not making a new high with the gold price. The volume indicator is also above its positive sloping trigger line but below its previous high and not confirming the gold move to new highs. The long term P&F chart continues to move higher with no hint of a reversal in the works. So, from the long term point of view the only rating that I can give this time period is a BULLISH rating.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Gold - You Can't Keep a Good Metal Down / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“The first resistance level in gold [is] at about $890, while … support [is] at about $861. The wide latitude … represents a range for traders. With additional rate cuts almost undoubtedly on the way, it's reasonable to see a more triangular correction in gold, if not new highs before the end of the quarter. That said, it's important to understand that even a larger degree triangle, as opposed to a deeper selloff, could still see gold trading to the $775-780 area in relatively short order. Those who've ridden this high should appropriately see themselves closer to the end of this move than the beginning.” ~ Precious Points: Let Them Eat Cake! January 18, 2008Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Working Paper Synopsis: The Search for the Beta of Commodity Futures / Commodities / Learn to Trade
By: Mack_Frankfurter
In comparing modern finance with behavioral finance, Dr. George M. Frankfurter, Lloyd F. Collette Professor Emeritus Louisiana State University, and Dr. Elton G. McGoun, Professor of Finance Bucknell University, in their article “ Resistance is Futile: The Assimilation of Behavioral Finance, ” [1] make the following astute observation which can similarly be applied to our analysis of the various commodity asset pricing models we investigated: “What has happened is that we've used these assumptions for so long that we've forgotten that we've merely made assumptions, and we've come to believe that the world is necessarily this way.” Likewise, our working paper, “ Is Managed Futures an Asset Class? The Search for the Beta of Commodity Futures ,” suggests that the models we examined have inherent shortcomings when analyzing the commodity futures markets. This article summarizes that study which is available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1029243 .
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Response to the Anti-Gold Gospel / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Professor_Emeritus
Anatole Kaletsky is the author of the most recent Anti-Gold Gospel ( www.gavekal.com , January 21, 2008.) He is an establishment journalist, Associate Editor (formerly Economics Editor) of The Times . He says that he instinctively dislikes gold because “historically gold has been a terrible investment and, even in the short term, gold has failed as a store of value”. I am satisfied to leave this statement to stand on its own, and wish Kaletsky good luck in seeking a better store of value in fiat currencies.
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Friday, January 25, 2008
$150 Billion Stimulus Package Positive for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Volatile was the word this week in equity and currency markets across the world. The average investor -- whether institutional or individual -- does not like to feel uncertain. So we protect ourselves from it the best we can. The results were that global markets acted on the worst-possible scenario. At the beginning of the week there was recession with the potential to get worse. Then came the 0.75% cut in Fed Fund rates. Together with talk around the $150 billion tax breaks from the White House, this was expected to send the global economy back on the growth track -- even though it would be at the expense of the USD. But hope wasn't enough. But markets are not falling and have recovered to a large extent, so far. But investors are still jaundiced by the realities of the moves.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
Price Structure Peaking for Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My pattern, momentum and cycle work on the Market Vectors Gold ETF (AMEX: GDX) suggest strongly that the price structure is peaking and could roll over at just about any time in the upcoming two weeks. This is also due to my perception that the underlying fundamentals have turned less friendly towards the miners, gold "consumption," inflation, and the overall bull market in equities.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
Gold Outlook Strong As Global Credit Crisis Worsens / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold rallied $22.20 to $907 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver surged 45 cents to $16.25 per ounce. Both rose again in late Asian trading overnight, and in early European trading gold has surged to new record highs at $923.60. Gold has now surged to new record highs in all major currencies.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
Silver - Not too Late to Hedge Against Dollar Stock Market Investment Losses / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
Like many silver and gold investors, my eyes were glued to the ticker tape this week wondering how silver and its derivative stocks would fare during this downturn in the global markets. To think that silver would be unaffected would be naïve but of course the question was in which way would it be affected? Would it go up, down or move in a channel? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
Gold Surges to New All-time High as South Africa Suspends ALL Gold Mining / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES rose 1.3% overnight Friday, reaching new all-time highs above $923 per ounce as all gold-mining operations in South Africa – the world's No.2 gold producer – were shut down by a power shortage.State-owned energy firm Eskom today told mining giants AngloGold Ashanti , GoldFields and Harmony that it can not guarantee current power supplies to their mines.
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Thursday, January 24, 2008
Gold Bull Trap Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My near and intermediate-term work is warning me that 3 session climbs from $850 to $911 (so far) in spot gold will turn out to be a trap (bull trap) and part of a near-term topping process just above $900, prior to another bout of corrective weakness that presses prices into the $800-$770 area in the weeks ahead. The upleg pattern off of the August 2007 low at $641.00 to the January 14th high at $914.00 exhibits the look of completion. In addition, the heretofore reliable 15-18 week cycle (low to low) is now in its 8th week.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Gold and Silver ETF's (GLD, SLV) Disparities With Gold Price Means Higher Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Richard_J_Greene
I have heard from many investors inquiring if they should sell their gold stocks and just buy the gold and silver ETFs. The first thing they should understand is that doing so would prolong the time they must wait for gold and silver to reach their true market levels which are much higher. The gold and silver ETFs were created by such financial giants as JP Morgan and Barclay's Bank that also serve as custodians and sub-custodians. These are the very firms that have been involved in the process of short selling gold and silver in huge quantities. That they would be involved in creating the ETFs had to be considered as most unlikely unless they had nefarious purposes.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
NYBOT Plans to Close Trading Floor - The End of an Era / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: George_Kleinman
“They're not just getting rich…they're getting even”--Trading Places [1983]
There's an electric tension in the air as our heroes, Louis Winthorpe III and Bill Ray Valentine, muscle their way through the crowd of traders lining the New York Board of Trade's (NYBoT) frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) trading pit. The traders are nervous with the anticipation of what's to come, sweating from the heat generated by more than 100 tightly packed bodies. The clerks manning the phones surrounding the pit are on high alert.
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Thursday, January 24, 2008
Gold and Stock Markets Surge on Monolie Bond Insurers Rescue Plan / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT GOLD MARKET gained 0.8% to break above $900 per ounce in London on Thursday, while European stock markets posted their biggest one-day gains since the Tech Stock Crash bottomed in March 2003.
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Thursday, January 24, 2008
Gold Stocks - The Next Stock Market Sector to Crash? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Alex_Wallenwein
I have thought hard for a long time about writing this article. There is a danger that it might spook a lot of investors out of gold stocks and gold mutual funds altogether, and therefore bring unnecessary loss to many people. On the other hand, this one article will probably not be that influential.
I cannot shake the feeling that, during the first part of 2008 at least, gold stocks will have a whale of a bad time. Yet, nobody wants to address the subject because most so-called gold bugs are really gold stock bugs. Nobody wants to scare their own customers away, but there is a time when a warning is due, and I think hat time is now.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Gold Stocks Bull Market - Have No Fear, Wave [3] of III of the HUI Gold Bugs Index is Nearly Here / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Petch
One fault with Elliott Wave if considered a fault is that price objectives can be reached quicker than anticipated. When small indices such as the HUI are examined, slapping an Elliott Wave count onto it can be rather difficult. Such a small representation of the global indices can cause prices to move rather quickly, so there MUST be some allowance for the behaviour and structure of patterns. I would be the first to admit flaws with the counts presented below, but as described in “The Technical Palette” written in September 2006, using Frame Shift Analysis aids in determination of the correct reading frame of a selected section of chart within surrounding wave structures. By providing a realistic balance with wave structures, a somewhat accurate road map can be painted to guide the investor for where things stand in the big picture.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Mining Stocks Dragged Down By Stock Market Panic / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Investmentscore.com
As investors, one of our main goals is to keep various market movements in perspective. The Canadian TSX stock exchange fell over 600 points, leaving many investors with a feeling of panic. As mining equities were dragged lower in the down draft of the TSX fall, many precious metals investors questioned their decision to invest in commodities and now wonder if the bull market is over.Read full article... Read full article...