Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Crude Oil Spikes Impact on Gold and Silver Price - Part 2 of 2 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Why Supply is Not Rising with Higher Prices?On the supply side, certain opaque realities are often overlooked and have to be faced clearly. Non-OPEC oil producers are unable to push up oil production as fast as incremental demand is expanding. Old oil fields are declining while new ones are not coming on stream fast enough. This situation will not change in the next few years, unless new oil fields are found.
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Friday, May 23, 2008
The Case for Gold Hitting $1300 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: John_Lee
In October 2007, when gold was USD 750/oz and a US Dollar fetched 7.5 Chinese Renminbi Yuan (RMB), I published an article titled “Gold and RMB – Last Shoe to Drop for the dollar” , in which I said:
For a US family that spends $300 to $500 a month on Chinese goods, a further 40% appreciation of the RMB will translate into a $100 to $200 monthly cost increase. The logic of asking the Chinese to revalue their currency upwards is no different from asking the Saudi's to jack up their oil price further, which is no logic at all for a US consumer.
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Friday, May 23, 2008
Silver Technicals Suggest Basing Patern Before Next Leg Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
I've never seen any other commodity generate such a fanatical following as silver. There are many investors and speculators interested in nothing but silver and its miners. There are financial newsletters focused solely on silver. This metal's ecosystem, birthed by a legendary superspike over 28 years ago, is totally unique.
With so much riding on silver for so many traders, emotions are amplified tremendously. If 10% of your portfolio is exposed to silver, and it doesn't live up to your expectations, you can shrug it off. But if 90% of your capital is deployed in the silver realm, and silver lets you down, it is devastating. This is made all the worse by the capricious and hyper-volatile nature of silver. It takes no prisoners.
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Friday, May 23, 2008
Upside Continuation for ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DUG) / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DUG) is smacking right up against its 8-week resistance line at 28.25, which could stall the upmove off of Wednesday's low at 26.43. However, the overwhelming weight of my technical work argues for upside continuation towards 28.80-29.20 (corrected from numbers in chart below) prior to the initial bout of profit-taking.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
Gold Rallies as Crude Oil Bounces / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES recovered an overnight dip of 0.7% early in London on Friday, nearing the US open above $926 per ounce as crude oil bounced from yesterday's sharp sell-off.The US Dollar held flat against the Euro after a surprise fall in the PMI index, which tracks the European economic outlook.
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Friday, May 23, 2008
China Gold Demand Surges as Chinese Investors Diversify / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down 1% ($ 9.50 to $9 18.10 ) but silver remained firm and closed marginally lower ( down $0.06 to $17.9 2 ) and profit taking on oil's weakness was seen by many as the primary cause of yesterday's sell off . Gold traded sideways in Asia but has rallied in early trade in Europe.With increasing doubts about the sustainability of the recent rebound of the dollar and of global stock markets, safe haven demand for gold is likely to reaccelerate in the coming weeks.
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Thursday, May 22, 2008
Gold and Silver Breakout on the Failure of US Brand of Capitalism / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The gold and silver prices have broken out on the upside, not to register new highs but rather to emerge from a clear bullish wedge pattern in their daily charts. The stage is set for assaults on the 1000 gold high and the 21 silver high. Furthermore, and more boldly stated, the stage was set last January for tremendous moves in gold toward 2000 and silver toward 50 in the next 18 to 24 months, give or take. The crude oil price surged past 100. Next the gold price will surge through 1000, as in SURGE. The key commercial commodity is crude oil. The key financial commodity is gold (silver also). Unprecedented monetary inflation invites unprecedented reaction in the crude oil and precious metal prices, where justice still is enforced. This key cause and effect is sorely missed by slick Wall Street conmen and carnival barkers. They invest privately in secrecy, while they promote publicly with deception, fraud, and influence of public media networks. They invest in the energy futures markets, while talking about speculation as the blame factor. They have yet to read and absorb the Peak Oil phenomenon on billboards. Oil supply reliability and disruption is a key story behind crude oil prices right now, not speculation. Permit me a rant that rambles from one important topic to another, but does conclude with the gold & silver prices, charts, with breakouts evident, and targets claimed. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Natural Gas ETF Reverses Upwards / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After coming within about $0.30 of getting stopped out this morning on the US Natural Gas ETF (AMEX: UNG), lower-than-expected natural gas inventories reversed price direction, which rocketed the price structure to new highs at 56.42. With today's spike low at 54.67, and yesterday's spike low at 54.42, we know where the stops belong. As for the upside potential from current levels, my overall technical work indicates that the UNG still has more upside ahead, into the 57.00 target zone next -- as long as 54.67/42 support remains intact.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Silver Price Manipulation- Paper Silver Versus Real Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
This week I must address the latest Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) findings that, "The U.S. commodities regulatory body found no evidence that silver prices had been manipulated downward by short sellers after re-examining long-term and recent allegations of misconduct."
I was asked by Dow Jones to comment on the CFTC findings. The first point I stated was, "It is not possible to manipulate the trend in a market, but it is possible to "manage" the price within silver's uptrend." I went on to state that the price of silver can be managed, within certain boundaries, through short selling. I believe silver would be far higher if not for selling of "vast amounts" of silver that doesn't exist, or "naked shorts."
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Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Gold Market Shifts Focus to Real Global Inflation Rates / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Christopher_Laird
Gold is shifting focus to world inflation. There is widespread inflation near 10% or more across the world. The EU is escaping some of the worst of it, but still is likely looking at 4%. Inflation in China 10%, India 7.6%.The US has 8% inflation (according to ShadowStats.com based on the method of calculation before the Clinton era, and not that ridiculous 3% which is whitewashed data). The Mid East 10% plus.
Just like Richard Duncan said, in the seminal book The Dollar Crisis, excess USD reserves flowing to our trade partners is causing inflation in those countries, as they have to wash that money into their own currencies.
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Wednesday, May 21, 2008
The Real Reason Behind Record High Oil Prices- Part 2 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: F_William_Engdahl
As detailed in an earlier article, a conservative calculation is that at least 60% of today's $128 per barrel price of crude oil comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York NYMEX futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or Over-The-Counter trading to avoid scrutiny. US margin rules of the government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract. At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme “leverage” of 16 to 1 helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in sub-prime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Agricultural Commodities ETF Sprouts New Upleg / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The DBA (Deutsche Bank Powershares Agricultural Commodity Fund, ETF) is showing some pop today finally, no doubt in reaction to the sharp upmoves in Soybeans and Corn (wheat continues to lag), which indicate the start of new post-correction, recovery uplegs.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Gold Firm on Inflation Investment Hedge / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
GOLD BULLION for physical delivery rose to a fresh one-month high early in London on Wednesday, breaking above $927 per ounce as crude oil topped $130 per barrel and the US Dollar fell yet again on the currency markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Silver Presents Huge Opportunities for Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold and silver continued to surge yesterday with gold up 1.6% and silver up over 4%. They have continued to rally in Asia and early trade in Europe. Gold has risen on the continuing oil surge with oil reaching new record highs (above $130) again this morning. There are fears of shortages and possible rationing in the next few years as the markets gradually and belatedly realize the reality that is peak oil. The FT reports that the fear of a global oil shortage within five years propelled oil futures prices to well above $130 a barrel, further stoking inflationary pressures in the global economy.
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Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Uranium Stocks- The Alternative Energy Bargain / Commodities / Uranium
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: All eyes are on oil as the price of crude trends higher and higher. But one of the rules of smart investing is to look at things others have ignored or written off, because you might find real bargains there.
And this may be a good time to look at a sector we haven't looked at in a long time: uranium and nuclear power. Why? Because as oil prices dominate the headlines, the smart money is looking at uranium. As a result ...
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Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Uranium Stocks Upside Breakout / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
AND AWAY WE GO. The box that has been such a confining feature of the Index action for so many weeks has been decisively broken, on the up side. The Index made a sharp upside move, and with significant volume action. All looks gung-ho for a good rally, maybe even a reversal of long term trend although that will still require much more work. However, let's calm down for a few minutes and see exactly what the charts and indicators are really telling us.
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Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Crude Oil Spikes to New High on Emerging Markets Demand- Part 1 of 2 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The oil price has in the past few years been a major influence on the gold price and quite rightly too. Both represent an unalterable definer of power and value. But of late the gold price has lagged the oil price in its relationship with oil. We see this as a temporary situation, which will persist until the ‘big' global picture forces itself onto the realities of our daily life in our local communities.
Once this happens we believe that the gold and silver price will catch up and reassert itself, not as a ‘gold standard' [after all governments will manage such a system as it currently does paper currencies] but as a measure of value and power in the monetary system [more on that in future articles]. So in this piece we look at the oil crisis, which is not fully appreciated by its audience, staring us in the face.
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Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Gold's Corrective Rally Continues / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The rally off of the May 2 low at 83.06 in the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has recovered to 90.78 so far, and appears to have more in it that should propel prices towards 92.00/60 prior to completion. If that proves to be the case, then my work will argue that an "intervening" recovery rally ended, which separates two larger downlegs within an intermediate-term corrective process…which will point to another decline in the GLD that retests the May low at 83.06.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Crude Oil Prices Set to Double and Double Again! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
Goldman Sachs recently forecasted that oil would be at $141 a barrel by the end of the year, and rising to $200 a barrel in the not too distant future. I have seen other forecasts calling for oil to slip significantly under $100 a barrel before starting yet another bull market.
I have written for years that we are not going to run out of oil or energy, just cheap oil. I was just in South Africa, where much of their gas and diesel comes from coal gasification. At one time this was an expensive way to make gas, and South Africans had to pay more for their gas than the rest of the world. Now, it is getting close to "par" to the cost of gas in the US, and is cheaper than gas in Europe.
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Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Gold Steadies Above $900 as Bond Market Igores Rising Inflation Fears / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE of physical Gold bullion moved sideways around $907 per ounce in London on Tuesday after what Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong called "a sluggish morning session with early selling."The AM Fix in London rose 50¢ from Monday's afternoon price to $907 per ounce.
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