Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, January 30, 2010
Will a Threatened Euro Affect the Gold Price? Short-term Traders Beware! / Currencies / Euro
Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank dismissed talk of Greece exiting the Euro as their national currency. The fact that he felt it necessary to issue such a statement meant that the prospect was being discussed outside the E.C.B. Instead, the EU is considering sanctions against the country to bring it into line with the E.U. The stress is high in the Eurozone!
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Friday, January 29, 2010
Second Upleg in USD/CHF Well Underway / Currencies / Forex Trading
A recovery in USD/CHF in December provided an initial bull sign and current expectations are for a continuation higher, with some interesting resistance then likely to interrupt proceedings.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2010
U.S. Dollar Gains Against Major Currencies and Commodities / Currencies / US Dollar
dollar has grown stronger to start this week, gaining ground against most major currencies and commodities, the Japanese yen, being the prominent exception.
The gold price spot rate is at $1,091, after a Tuesday New York Mercantile Exchange close just below $1,100. The gold rate is well below its all time high of $1,218.25 near the end of 2009.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2010
China Currency Manipulation Global Trade Imbalances, A World Without Yuan 6.83 / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Keith Hilden writes: As countless newspapers and media outlets across China continue to reiterate that the fiscal policy of China to refuse the appreciation of the renminbi is made clear on an almost daily basis, it has been established that this policy suits China and its interests. It certainly does. But when a country makes a decision based solely on its own interests, and it negatively affects the interests of every other country in the world, what is the boundary of acceptable conduct for that country to follow in the interest of the rest of the world?
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Monday, January 25, 2010
U.S. Dollar Giant Double Top Pattern Implies Bearish Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
KISS is an acronym for the popular expression, keep it simple, stupid. I don’t particularly like the idea of calling others stupid. I have found that people who do so usually have an inability to express themselves, and this is because they themselves are stupid. Most people I have met in this world can do at least something better than I can, and I can benefit from their expertise. (This is what the economist calls division of labor and specialization.) At any rate, the simple part is very good. Most great ideas are simple (the 10 Commandments, Newton’s laws of motion).
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Saturday, January 23, 2010
Why the U.S. Dollar Rally Has Legs / Currencies / US Dollar
In December I wrote a Money and Markets column making the case for a bottom in the dollar. And since then the evidence supporting that thesis has grown. I also said there are plenty of ugly currencies out there that will likely take scrutiny away from the dollar. In fact, in recent weeks I outlined the blemishes burdening three key major liquid currencies. And those blemishes are now being exposed …
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Wednesday, January 20, 2010
U.S. Dollar Bottoming Against Yen / Currencies / US Dollar
Let's have a look at the BIG picture chart structure of Dollar vs. Yen, which argues for an approaching upmove in the USD (Yen weakness). Purely from an intermediate-term technical perspective, the pattern carved out by the USD/Yen since early 2007 into late 2009 has the right look of a completed downmove in the USD versus the Yen.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2010
How Can Localities Cope if the U.S. Dollar Crashes? / Currencies / US Dollar
A “run on the dollar,” or any currency, for that matter, takes place when the currency is losing its value. This happens when a country’s debt becomes so great that there is danger of a major default–that is, large scale or even national bankruptcy. At that point, people whose wealth is in that currency, or in relatively liquid assets denominated in the currency, try to get rid of them as fast as they can. Today, that includes foreign countries like China or Russia that are holding large quantities of U.S. government bonds.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2010
U.S. Dollar Index Expected to Rise During 2010 / Currencies / US Dollar
In 2009, investors were down on the US Dollar, and anytime the US Dollar was down, everything else was up. But as we head into 2010, the US Dollar appears to have found support above the all time lows made around $70 in March, 2008 and reversed higher. There is reason to believe that from a technical perspective this reversal is for real, and it is real enough that it should have implications for other markets.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Euro's Bearish Dead Cross (or Achilles Heel) / Currencies / Forex Trading
EURUSD's 50-day moving average has now fallen below its 100-day MA, which is referred to as a dead cross. As shorter duration moving averages (faster gauges of trend) move below their longer duration averages (slower gauges of trend), a downtrend is said to be confirmed. Momentum traders, trend-followers and black box programs will tend to trigger fresh moves as these major moving averages upon the trigger.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Is a Run on the U.S. Dollar Starting Soon? / Currencies / US Dollar
Yes, I think a run on the dollar is coming. A lot of people are saying this, including a man named Dmitri Orlov who recently came out with a book entitled “Reinventing Collapse” that compares the crash of the Soviet Union in the 1990s with what he believes is coming here within a short period of time. I heard that at the last meeting of the G20 the U.S. asked Russia and China if they would agree to an orderly devaluation of the dollar, and the answer was “Nyet.”
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Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Japanese Yen's Kamikaze Flight Trajectory / Currencies / Japanese Yen
Forget about the flight to the dollar at the peak of the financial crisis: the yen was the ultimate beneficiary. The endlessly quoted unwinding of the carry trade was a factor, but there may have been a more important force at play. As that force may now be under increased pressure, the yen may be in trouble. The force we are talking about is the free market.
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Monday, January 18, 2010
How to Profit From the Falling U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
As many of you already know, I am very bearish on the dollar.
And in just the past four weeks of trading — starting right before the holidays and continuing into the new year — the benchmark U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has lost nearly 9% of its value against the world’s major foreign currencies.
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Monday, January 18, 2010
2010 To Mark the Demise of the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
Well, that was another year, and decade, one that was characterized by exacting prices for almost a century of easy money led by the Fed. And it continues today with bubble dynamics in economies and markets considered a normal expectation these days, explaining why gold was top performer over the past 10-years, and should remain in that spot moving forward as well baring silver’s remonetization. That is to say, anybody, like Time Magazine, expecting smooth sailing over the next 10-years is most likely barking up the wrong tree with all the problems that still lie ahead for us, problems ranging from increasingly unmanageable debts and deficits, which are a result of the big turn in the credit cycle in 2008, to the pending demise of the dollar ($) as the world’s reserve currency
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Monday, January 18, 2010
USD/JPY Bulls Pause for Thought / Currencies / Forex Trading
The downmove in 2009 culminated in an acceleration in November, below prior 87.11 Dec-08/Jan-09 lows, which seemed to justify a bearish stance. However, an equally rapid recovery led us to think that we might have seen a blow-off move, and subsequent action supports this view – s/term weakness may not, therefore, be long-lasting.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Reduce Your Risk in Currency Trading By Using Twin Pairs / Currencies / Forex Trading
Pair trading is a popular stock-trading strategy. It gives you the opportunity to capture a dislocation between two stocks by taking a long position in one stock and simultaneously taking a short position in another — in equal dollar amounts.
In identifying a good pair trade, you’d look for two stocks that share the same industry, the same sector or simply have a strong historical statistical correlation. Yet for the time being, the share price of one may have gone up (the one you go short), while the other company’s stock (the one you go long) went down.
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Thursday, January 14, 2010
Forex Trading and the Core Consumer Price Index / Currencies / Forex Trading
The CPI measures are to be published tomorrow, January 15, 2010. The Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy.
The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Dollar Struggles Again After Latest Jobs Data, Housing Market News / Currencies / US Dollar
Exchange rates have not been favorable for the US dollar in the early part of the week as the greenback has been hit again following disappointing news of late on the job and housing sector fronts.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Currency Traders Look to U.S. Initial Jobless Claims / Currencies / Forex Trading
Traders anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow, January 14.
Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
USD Traders Await Publication of the Core Retail Sales Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
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