Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Money vs Wealth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
When discussing financial matters, people often conflate money with wealth. Although such loose language may be perfectly fine in everyday conversation, it's important to occasionally go over the basics and make sure we are thinking about these issues in the proper way.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
UK Budget 2010 Analysis, Consumers, Public Sector and Benefit Claimers to Carry the Weight / Economics / UK Tax & Budget
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osbourne delivered his first budget flanked by Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander on either side, and clearing the uncertainty of the past 6 months which allows business's and individuals to make long-term decisions. The primary objective of the emergency budget is to address the unsustainable £156 billion annual budget deficit that risks bankrupting Britain, in this respect the budget appears to have succeeded in projecting that over the term of the parliament this deficit will be reduced to £20 billion per year.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
What's the Point of Macro Events Research in Forecasting? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
I am back in Tuscany and will head to Milan tomorrow early, give a speech at the Bloomberg offices and then back home. But it is Monday and that means it is time for another Outside the Box. And I have found a most excellent offering. Dylan Grice from Societe Generale in London wrote on value for an OTB a few weeks ago, and he follows that up with more thoughts on the use of macro trends versus value investing. This is a real think piece, and worthy of more than one read.
Monday, June 21, 2010
UK Emergency Budget 2010: George Osbourne's Wage Inflation Price Spiral VAT Increase / Economics / UK Tax & Budget
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osbourne, the Coalition governments chancellor looks set to announce deep spending cuts and significant tax rises in tomorrows budget. However what will be the lasting impact of the budget will be the changes to the rate and scope of VAT with the aim of raising at least £15 billion extra revenue per year, that will come to be seen as the budget that sparked the wage price spiral.
Monday, June 21, 2010
101 Scary Thoughts about the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_North
1. The crucial objective factor promoting economic growth in a private property social order is per capita investment.
2. Americans save less than 5% of household income.
3. The Federal Reserve System runs the show economically; Congress doesn't.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Systemic Crisis of the World Economy, Global Geopolitical Dislocation / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
GEAB write: Each day the news confirm the extent to which the global systemic crisis has now entered into the phase of global geopolitical dislocation, even if the media only timidly begin to interpret the historic upheavals which unfold before our own eyes. For LEAP/E2020, the second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure (1) of the international system analyzed in this GEAB issue.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Consumer Deleveraging: the New “wall of worry” / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
Everywhere one turns it seems that fear lurks just behind the corner, just waiting to pounce. Every day we’re bombarded by fear in the news headlines, be it from a financial, economic or geopolitical perspective. Nowhere is this more apparent than the current fear campaign over the U.S. debt situation, specifically, consumer deleveraging. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bryan_Rich
It’s easy to lose perspective on where the global economy stands … to be confused by the daily deluge of information.
So today, in the first of a two-part series, I want to give you some perspective on the big-picture and where we are today, because as an investor the “big-picture” is critical for you. It can mean the difference between making and losing a lot of money.
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Saturday, June 19, 2010
Deficits and Economic Growth, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Mauldin
"Everyone" is upset with the level of fiscal deficits being run by nearly every developed country. And with much justification. The levels of fiscal deficits are unsustainable and threaten to bring many countries to the desperate situation that Greece now finds itself in. We must balance the budget is the cry of fiscal conservatives. But there are unseen consequences in moving both too fast or too slow in the effort to get the deficits under control. Today we look at them as we explore what a fine mess we have gotten ourselves into. (I am working without internet today so the letter will be shorter with fewer references than normal.)Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Economic Depression Solutions, Krugman vs. Greenspan / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Courtesy of Calculated Risk here are a pair of articles, one from Krugman and another from Greenspan on the limits of debt.
That ’30s Feeling
Friday, June 18, 2010
Talk of Double-Dip Recession No Longer Crazy? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Sy_Harding
Just a month or two ago opinions that the serious recession that ended in the last quarter of last year, will return in a double-dip later this year were blown off as crazy.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 18, 2010
The Next Catastrophic Bubble to Pop Will Be Private Sector Debt / Economics / US Debt
By: Andrew_Butter
Much is said about the propensity of USA to pile on public debt to try and right the wrongs of the moronic lenders of yester-year ….and the risks that entails, but private sector debt is a much bigger “Elephant” in the Jacuzzi than public sector debt.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Sovereign Crisis from Economic Stimulus to Debt Austerity Snowball Effect / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Mike_Larson
A blockbuster draft report from the European Commission saw the light of day recently, thanks to some reporting from Bloomberg. It highlights an incredibly dangerous Catch-22 facing many sovereign nations — the “Snowball Scenario.”
Let me give you an example how this works …
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Friday, June 18, 2010
Trade Cycle Impact on the Market Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
The popularity of inflation and credit expansion, the ultimate source of the repeated attempts to render people prosperous by credit expansion, and thus the cause of the cyclical fluctuations of business, manifests itself clearly in the customary terminology. The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing. Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression. People rebel against the insight that the disturbing element is to be seen in the malinvestment and the overconsumption of the boom period and that such an artificially induced boom is doomed. They are looking for the philosophers' stone to make it last.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Chinese Workers Force the Issue / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Browne
Neeraj Chaudhary writes: It's starting to look like Chinese labor has had enough. Led by workers at the Honda Motors plant in Zhangshan, and perhaps spurred by the suicides of ten workers this year at Foxconn Technology (a supplier to high technology companies such as Apple, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard), Chinese factory workers and other laborers across the country are going on strike. In so doing, these workers are defying the orders of their government-run unions and risking dismissal by their employers. I believe that this monumental step in the development of China's economy will result in a positive outcome. From an international perspective, these strikes may do more than improve working conditions in Chinese factories; they may, in fact, force a currency reform (long-delayed by the Chinese Communist Party) that will have serious implications for the global economy.
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Wednesday, June 16, 2010
United States Construction Industry in Death Spiral / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: JD_Rosendahl
How bad are things in the construction industry? Worse than many really know as Housing Starts in U.S. Fell to a 593,000 Pace in May
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
As the Stimulus Fades U.S. Economy and Stock Market Loses Steam / Economics / US Economy
By: Claus_Vogt
Over the past two years, we’ve seen the largest stimulus policies the world has ever produced.
As a result, sovereign debt and central banks’ balance sheet holdings have gone through the roof!
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Wednesday, June 16, 2010
The U.S. Economic Recovery is on Cruise Control / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Assessing the U.S. economic recovery right now is a bit like buying a used car: Although it sure looks good, you can't help but wonder what's really going on under the hood.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
The Inflation Mega-Trend Continues With UK CPI 3.4%, RPI 5.1% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Another month and another release of UK inflation data at far above the Bank of England's target of 2% and above the upper limit of the Banks 1% to 3% range by reporting CPI of +3.4% for May. Thus the BoE Governor, Mervyn King will write another letter to repeat that the high rate of inflation is just "temporary", though when does "temporary" high inflation stop being temporary? 6 months? a year? 2 years? as the country sleep walks into stagflation with all of the consequences for wage earners and savers.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
The U.S. Federal Government Debt and Deficit - Congressman, Heal Thyself! / Economics / US Debt
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On one of this past Sunday's morning political talk shows, I heard a congressman say that the runaway federal government spending had to stop. Congressman, sir, although the spending continues to increase, the rate of growth in that spending has slowed enormously. In the 12 months ended May 2010, the accumulated spending by the federal government totaled $3.437 trillion, enough to keep the late Senator Dirksen spinning in his grave for near eternity. Although an admittedly high level, this 12-month accumulated total federal spending was only 2.6% higher than the 12-month accumulated total federal spending for May 2009 (see Chart 1).