Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Deflation Relative to What? / Economics / Deflation
By: Adam_Brochert
As the deflation versus inflation debate rages on, both sides present reasonable arguments that sound plausible. I am in the camp that believes stocks, commodities, corporate bonds and real estate have much further to fall. Now falling prices are not the same thing as deflation, but they are a visible symptom. To be honest, I am a pragmatist. I am not as concerned about getting my exact definitions right as I am understanding what to do with my savings.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Recession Ending, Celebrate Economic Growth in Third Quarter / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
We had been expecting that real economic growth would emerge in the fourth quarter of this year, coinciding with the celebrations of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. We now think that it might emerge, albeit, just barely, in the third quarter, in time for the Labor Day celebration - although labor will have little to celebrate. We arrive at this conclusion from observing some economic variables that typically signal the end of a recession. And these economic variables are subject to little, if any, revisions.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
The Fight Between Inflation and Deflation is Over! / Economics / Inflation
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry writes: There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.– Ludwig von Mises
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Global Economic Depression and Regional Wars - Part I / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Stephen_Lendman
James Petras is Binghamton University, New York Professor Emeritus of Sociology. Besides his long and distinguished academic career, he's a noted figure on the left, a well-respected Latin American expert, and a longtime chronicler of the region' popular struggles. He's also a prolific author of hundreds of articles and dozens of books, most recently his new one titled, "Global Depression and Regional Wars" addressing America, Latin America and the Middle East.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
What Are the Prospects for the US Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: “The trade of governing has always been monopolized by the most ignorant and the most rascally individuals of mankind.” — Thomas Paine
The 10-year note auction yielded 3.73%. The bid to cover was 2.49 to 1 versus the average of the last ten auctions of 2.48 to 1. Indirect participation was 45.7% versus an average of 30%; we believe this is because foreign central banks are buying in behalf of the Fed via money they swapped with them.
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Saturday, August 15, 2009
The Statistical Economic Recovery and Thoughts on the Housing Market / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Mauldin
The Statistical Recovery, Part Two
A Recovery Statisticians Can Love
A Few Thoughts on the Housing Market
Some Thoughts from Maine
A few weeks ago I first used the term "statistical recovery" to describe the nature of today's economic environment. Today we are going to further explore that concept, as it is important to have a real understanding of what is happening. This coming "recovery" is not going to feel like a typical one, and those expecting a "V"-shaped recovery are simply making projections from previous economic recoveries, which, based on the fundamentals, are not warranted. And of course, a few thoughts coming back from Maine are in order. There is a lot to cover, and this may take more than one letter.
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Friday, August 14, 2009
Rising Exports, the Basis for a Sustained Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Hans_Wagner
For decades, consumer spending led the U.S. economy. As the U.S. consumer curtails their spending to replenish finances, they will not be leading the way to economic recovery this time. Rather, the U.S. will be looking to the rising export economy to provide the power behind the country’s growth in Gross Domestic Product.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Misguided Worries About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds reading about the threat of massive inflation looming on the horizon are asking "Where's the Inflationary Beef?" It's a good question too, so let's search far and wide for symptoms.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Peas In The Deflationary Economic Pod / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
In the face of mounting job losses with the only real demand coming from cash for clunkers and other silly stimulus programs doomed to fail, it should not be surprising to anyone for retail sales to drop. Nonetheless, Bloomberg notes the following surprise: Sales Unexpectedly Decrease as Job Losses Mount.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Green Shoots Recovery Are a Mirage, Economy Will Deteriorate Further / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Moses_Kim
If there's one thing you can bank on, it's that the public will be controlled by emotional whims rather than rational judgment. I do my best to lay out the facts, and whenever possible, support my claims with hard data. When the characteristics of the the data change, my outlook will as well.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
UK Unemployment Figures Mean Disaster for the Housing Market / Economics / UK Housing
By: MoneyWeek
David Stevenson writes: Britain's dole queues just got a lot longer. Another 220,000 people were added, according to yesterday's official stats. That takes the total to 2,435,000, or a rate of 7.8%, the highest since 1996.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Shifting Sands of Foreign Economic Policy Impacting on America's Shores / Economics / Government Intervention
By: John_Browne
The monstrous typhoon that pounded away at coastal areas of the Pacific last weekend certainly qualified as a disaster for anyone who happened to be in its path. But for those of us safely in bed, the storm not only provided some remarkable meteorological footage, but also a stealth lesson in economics.
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Thursday, August 13, 2009
UK Unemployment Continues to Soar Towards 3Million as Mervyn King Makes Excuses / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Unemployment continues its inexorable rise by hitting 2.435 million despite desperate and unprecedented government measures to prevent electoral suicide that would accompany a 3 million unemployment figure by the date of the next general election due within the next 10 months. Unemployment jumped by 220,000 in the three months to May 2009 to the highest level since Labour came to power, with the jobless rate now standing at 7.8%.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Social Security Safety Nets Mask Deflationary Economic Depression / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In a recent video Robert Prechter says the Dollar's Hit a "Major Bottom" and that a deflationary depression is coming.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Turning America into a Nation of Idiots, Fat, Drunk and Stupid is No Way to go Through Life / Economics / Social Issues
By: James_Quinn
Dean Wormer: Did you boys see your grade point averages yet?
Hoover: They're not posted yet, sir.
Dean Wormer: I've seen them. Mr. Kroger, two C's, two D's and an F - that's a 1.2 grade average. Congratulations, Kroger, you're at the top of the Delta pledge class.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Jaguar Inflation, Layman's Explanation of the Impact of Government Intervention / Economics / Economic Theory
By: EWI
This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter's FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook , part of Prechter's NEW Deflation Survival Guide.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Get Ready for Startling CPI Inflation Data this October / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Get ready to be hit by some startling inflation data. The data soon to be released by the government will put a dagger through the hearts of those who are predicting a protracted period of deflation. Wall Street and Washington are telling you inflation isn’t something we need to be concerned about for years to come. The truth is starting this October the reported Consumer Price Inflation data will become ugly. That is because the year over year comparisons of energy and commodity prices become very unfavorable.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2009
There is No Recession, This is Planned Financial Demolition / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Whitney
Credit is not flowing. In fact, credit is contracting. That means things aren't getting better; they're getting worse. When credit contracts in a consumer-driven economy, bad things happen. Business investment drops, unemployment soars, earnings plunge, and GDP shrinks. The Fed has spent more than a trillion dollars trying to get consumers to start borrowing again, but without success. The country's credit engines are grinding to a halt.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
The Bounce Phase of the Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Bill Bonner writes: “It looks like things are finally turning around,” said a friend at Saturday night’s dinner.
“Not at all…” we replied.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2009
No Economic Recovery, United States the Pink Slip Nation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: LewRockwell
Gary North writes: I don't know when the term "pink slip" originated. The term is at least a century old. It refers to a "your fired" notice.
The American economy shows no signs of reversing its relentless increase in the rate of unemployment. Jobs are disappearing at a rate not seen since the 1981–82 recession.
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