Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
US China Trade Imbalances - In the Shallow End of a Deep Pool / Economics / US Dollar
By: Paul_Petillo
Recent talks with Chinese ended last week with the feeling that we have gained little ground. And with good reason. Only the US sees the growing trade deficits and the dollar-Yuan peg as a problem of growing importance.
T he Chinese general/philosopher Sun Tzu once wrote “. . . If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory will not stand in doubt, if you know Heaven and know Earth, you may make your victory complete”. He seemed to be offering rather pointed advice several thousand years removed on how negotiations with the US should proceed.
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Wednesday, May 30, 2007
The Changing Face of the US Dollar from Tangible Asset to a Fiat Currency / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Hewitt
The US dollar changed from a currency backed up by a tangible asset to a fiat currency. That being a paper note backed up by governmental promises. By looking at the history of American paper money one can clearly see the distinction.
Compare the images of the following historic dollar bills to those in your wallet today. Certain previously displayed phrases have been simply eliminated.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
US Economy, Immigration and the Fallacy of Cheap Labour / Economics / Immigration
By: Gerard_Jackson
The question of illegal immigration has finally come to the boil in the US. In doing so it has exposed as nonsense the arguments of those who say that legalising the current status of illegals will promote growth. This attitude is boneheaded to say the least. Yet this is precisely where the Wall Street Journal. A while ago it published an article by Mary Anastasia O'Grady arguing that the real problem is not immigration per se butRead full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Nolte Notes - Inflationary Growth / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Let's be perfectly honest – economists are a geeky bunch. In what may be their own super Friday, economic reports galore will assist them in determining the overall direction of the economy. Mind you, many of these reports are monthly, they get revised regularly and an economy as large as ours rarely is going to turn on a couple of reports. However, the financial markets are likely to get all worked up about inflation (which we will see with the employment report), consumer spending (in the income/spending report) and job creation (in the employment report).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
The Four Cylinders of Economic Growth - Part 1 / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
Making economic predictions has always been a popular pastime, and never so more than today. We all fancy ourselves armchair economists, and why not, with the stakes higher than ever. Our very livelihoods are to a large extent tied up in the future direction of the economy. With so much at stake now and in the year ahead, the topic of economic growth has never been more relevant.
Yet behind all the economic rhetoric is a question that is seldom asked, namely, what exactly makes our economy tick? Why is it that some countries (notably the U.S.) seem to always have an essentially vibrant economy while others are constantly stuck in neutral...or worse! In short, what are the keys to economic growth? I think you'll agree that they can be distilled into essentially four key principles, which we'll examine here.
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Monday, May 28, 2007
My Two Cents - "The Complacent Consumer" / Economics / Debt & Loans
By: Andy_Sutton
For a long time now as I've watched consumers collectively dig themselves into debt-oblivion, I have wracked my brain trying to figure out why they are doing it. Recently, what I will call consumerism seems to be escalating as we have watched demand for gasoline defy the laws of economics. Instead of focusing on the product, I think it is appropriate to spend some time reflecting on the mentality behind recent behavior. No doubt, consumerism has already been responsible for a number of coming financial debacles, most notably the housing collapse, the negative savings rate in this country, record levels of debt, and rising bankruptcies. This week I am teaming up with a popular My Two Cents contributor CJH from Maryland to take a look at American consumerism....Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 28, 2007
Monetary Theory Of E.C. Riegel / Economics / Money Supply
By: Christopher_Quigley
IntroductionIn a life spanning over 70 years one of the greatest students of money and its meaning was the American E.C. Riegel. Many regarded him as a genius for his understanding of the nature and functioning of money as a human and social institution. This essay is an introduction to his main ideas on this subject as increasingly people are beginning to realise the need for a more stable monetary unit. In essence in his book "Flight From Inflation" he identified money as the mathematics of value and argued that for a democracy to thrive he believed the "money power" must be free.
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Monday, May 28, 2007
United States Battles Won and Battles Lost / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Today is the day I remember my uncle Al, who volunteered for the Battle of the Bulge in World War II, was blown off a transport truck, suffered a lifelong injury, and has since passed away.
But it's also my day to remember my father, Irving Weiss, who fought battles of a less violent kind.
Dad's struggle wasn't against a tangible enemy. Nor did it endanger his life. But its impact on our economy was longer lasting: He fought to safeguard the U.S. dollar. And although he won several battles, ultimately, he lost the war.
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Monday, May 28, 2007
What is a “ Canadian Dollar”? / Economics / Canadian $
By: Mike_Hewitt
have a growing concern regarding paper money. That concern is what defines a “dollar”. A dictionary definition describes a dollar as being a basic monetary unit equivalent to 100 cents. Further investigation reveals that a cent is equal to 1/100th of a dollar. This tautology is clearly an unsatisfactory answer.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 26, 2007
The Econtarian - Waiting for Godot and Predicted Supply-Side Results / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
If ever there have been federal tax cuts tailored to produce supply-side economic behavior, they were implemented during President George W. Bush's administration starting in 2001. Marginal tax rates on wage/salary income as well as the tax rates on capital income (capital gains and dividend income) both were reduced. In fact, according to data from the Tax Policy Center, the marginal effective tax rates on capital income are the lowest (23%) of any year starting with 1953 (see www.taxpolicycenter.org).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 25, 2007
Sound Money Sound Society / Economics / Money Supply
By: Christopher_Quigley
This article is a summary of work by Professor Antal. E Fekete , Professor Heinrich Rittershausen and Ferdinand Lips.
Summary
The World's developing financial crisis is totally inter-connected with a crisis of monetary theory and until we change how money works we will change nothing. What is required is a return to a solid monetary standard that is also a return to a more moral standard, which protects real work and long-term monetary value.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Social, Economic and Energy Trends / Economics / US Economy
By: David_Vaughn
Uranium remains the most exciting commodity moving strong on the markets.
Uranium has so far stayed out of the political mainstream so there has not been a coordinated drive to suppress its price. Uranium continues to be influenced by the simple powers of supply and demand. And the demand for uranium is definitely there. Just in the United States alone a new renaissance in nuclear power is dawning. This fact is probably one of the strongest and most powerful of trends as we move deeper into the 21 st century.
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Thursday, May 24, 2007
Misery Spread Widely, The Destruction of the Middle Class! / Economics / Social Issues
By: Ty_Andros
Just as vast new middle classes are being born around the globe, some are being buried. They are being buried by the people they elected to steward their economies, these public servants are more interested in their next reelection then coming up with practical solutions that meet today's challenges while preserving the economic futures of their current constituents and future generations.
Today's middle classes in the western world have been taught a belief in two things: that you can have “something for nothing”, and that government can “protect and provide for you”. They now vote regularly for these chimeras/illusions. The growth cycle and bull markets in these ways of thinking are a self fulfilling vicious circle, which will culminate in the middle classes demise. This broad social trend is in the United States and in central Europe , and is as destructive a PRIMARY character flaw as I have ever seen, it is an investment theme for the next ten years or more as it plays out.
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Thursday, May 24, 2007
Spain Sells Its Foreign Reserves, Savings Spent? / Economics / Spain
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The Banco de Espana's holdings of foreign currencies and gold have fallen to €13.2bn (£9.02bn), equivalent to 12 days of imports, according to their website. Last week saw a continuation of their sales of gold of, possibly, in the region of 10 to 15 tonnes more.
Over the past two months the Banco de España has sold off 80 tonnes of gold.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Paper, Rock, Gold : Why does Money have Value? / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Hewitt
There are two commonly held views as to why money has value:
1. People are willing to accept it as payment (social convention)
2. The government says so (government decree)
The first reason, that being that money has value because people are willing to accept it as payment is nothing more than a circular argument. It states that money has value because it is accepted. Why is it accepted? …because it has value!
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Wednesday, May 23, 2007
How is Money Created? / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Hewitt
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago used to publish a pamphlet entitled Modern Money Mechanics , which explains M1, M2, and M3. It is a truly fascinating read. That pamphlet is no longer in print, and the Chicago Fed has no plans to re-issue it. However, electronic copies are available (see link ).
In it, the process by which the Fed creates money “out of thin air” is detailed. Consider the opening paragraph:
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Wednesday, May 23, 2007
US Dollar Bills, Construction Employment And Undocumented Workers / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Housing is in a relatively deep recession, yet the decline in residential construction employment (not including specialty contractors) has been relatively mild (see Chart 1).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Hyperinflation in China, 1937 - 1949 / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Hewitt
Till 1927, China had a free banking system through the interaction of private banks operating in various regions of the country. Privately held banks operated like any other Chinese business and competed with one another to obtain customers. Most banks issued their own notes which were redeemable in silver, the traditional medium of exchange in China. The notes from each bank circulated freely with the notes from other banks.
These Chinese banks operated largely without state regulation. A free banking system has inherent checks against inflation - primarily because customers will flee from depreciating currencies - and instances of banks' inflating their currencies were rare.
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007
The US Trade Deficit - Cause for Concern? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Hewitt
Can the US trade deficit continue forever? Will there come a time when foreigners will become less likely to hold US denominated assets? Should such a time arrive, the US Federal Reserve will be forced to increase interests rates to prevent a collapse of the US dollar. This would be catastrophic to the US housing market and US economy as a whole.
Imagine an American counterfeiter who uses the fraudulent dollars to purchase Chinese goods. What would you say of such a scenario? Now imagine a US Central Bank that creates money “out of thin air”, places that money into a bank, where upon the bank lends it to an American importer who then uses them to purchase Chinese goods.
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007
US Economy May Wake Up Without Consumers' Prodding? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In Mondays Wall Street Journal , reporter Christopher Conkey wrote a piece suggesting that with 75% of the economy faltering, the other 25% was going to accelerate, preventing the 100% from stalling out. Let's start with business investment. Historically, business fixed investment is a lagging indicator.
That is, after residential investment (housing) and consumer spending head for the deck, then business investment follows household spending down. This pattern of business fixed investment spending lagging household spending is shown in Chart 1. On a contemporaneous basis, the correlation between the two series is 0.47. The highest correlation between the series, 0.69, occurs when household spending is advanced (leads) by two quarters.
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