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Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Housing-Market

Monday, September 25, 2006

Joseph Rowntrees report into the state of UK Housing / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Sarah_Jones

According to the report, affordability is currently stretched, with mortgage costs currently accounting for 36 per cent of average earnings.

The supply of affordable housing is also at a low level, the study claims, with 35,000 homes available in 2005-06 – half the level experienced in the mid-90s. This is well below the minimum of 48,000 outlined in the government-commissioned report.

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Housing-Market

Saturday, September 16, 2006

IMF warns over UK property crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Sarah_Jones

A sharp rise in interest rates could trigger a slump in house prices, which are overvalued by "any conventional measure", the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday. The world's chief financial watchdog warned that soaring prices posed one of the biggest risks to the UK economy.

"House prices in Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom still look elevated, and could come under pressure in a rising interest rate environment," it said.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, September 10, 2006

The Effects of a US Housing Market Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Sarah_Jones

House prices across the atlantic continue to tumble across the board, with the National Association of Realtors, reporting a price fall of 1.7 per cent last month to $225,000 (£118,000), while sales of existing homes drop 0.5% to an annual rate of 6.3 million. At the same time, ever more owners are being forced to put properties on the market as mortgage rates have steadily risen, further dimming prospects of an improvement in the short term. The total of existing homes on the market is now the highest since April 1993.

As house prices fall, there will likely be many more defaults on mortgage products, such as ARM (adjustable rate mortgages), which the US borrowers were not used to a floating interest rate instead having relied on fixed rate products, now as interest rates have risen to 5.25% from just 1% have seen a surge in foreclosures reaching some 116,000 in August, up 53% on a year ago.

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Housing-Market

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

UK Housing Bubble is Popping / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

From the low in 1995 the average UK house price has risen from £50,930. to the £158,745 by the end of 2005, which is more than tripling in price ! From peak to to peak House prices have risen about the same 50%, as when the peaked in 1990. The Trend analysis suggests any decline could take house prices to the previous peak of approx 105k ! which would represent a staggering drop of 34% off current prices !

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Housing-Market

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

House Prices - Tulip Mania - A lesson from History ! / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Sarah_Jones

Holland in the early 17th century was embarking on its Golden Age. Resources that had just a few years earlier gone toward fighting for independence from Spain now flowed into commerce. Amsterdam merchants were at the center of the lucrative East Indies trade, where a single voyage could yield profits of 400%. They displayed their success by erecting grand estates surrounded by flower gardens. The Dutch population seemed torn by two contradictory impulses: a horror of living beyond one's means and the love of a long shot.

Enter the tulip. ''It is impossible to comprehend the tulip mania without understanding just how different tulips were from every other flower known to horticulturists in the 17th century,'' says Dash. ''The colors they exhibited were more intense and more concentrated than those of ordinary plants.'' Despite the outlandish prices commanded by rare bulbs, ordinary tulips were sold by the pound. Around 1630, however, a new type of tulip fancier appeared, lured by tales of fat profits. These ''florists,'' or professional tulip traders, sought out flower lovers and speculators alike. But if the supply of tulip buyers grew quickly, the supply of bulbs did not. The tulip was a conspirator in the supply squeeze: It takes seven years to grow one from seed. And while bulbs can produce two or three clones, or ''offsets,'' annually, the mother bulb only lasts a few years. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, August 16, 2005

Britains biggest estate agent loses £6.4 million / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Sarah_Jones

Countrywide hit by 'appalling' downturn

Britain's biggest chain of estate agents yesterday showed just how dramatically the housing market had slowed when it revealed it had suffered a loss for the first time in a decade.
Countrywide said its UK estate agency division made losses of £6.4m in the first six months of this year - down 129% on the £22m operating profit notched up a year earlier. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

House Price News from 1989 ! / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Times TUE 03 JAN 1989 Agents optimistic about house prices A leading national firm of estate agents believes a collapse in the property market in 1989 is highly unlikely. Strutt and Parker has completed a review of 1988 trends, dominated by panic buying in the summer, then a London-led slowdown in the last q...

The Times FRI 06 JAN 1989 Shortage of teachers in Essex linked to soaring house prices Essex faces a chronic shortages of teachers because of soaring house prices, according to a survey by the National Association of Schoolmasters/Union of Women Teachers. Eight per cent of teachers are moving from the Basildon and mid-Essex area to ot...

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Housing-Market

Friday, March 18, 2005

The housing bear market will result in a recession / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It is inherent in market systems, to move to between extremes, so at the very least real house prices will decline by 10%, depending on the effects on the economy, which obviously will be negative this will feed through to further declines.

As the bull trend in house prices from 1994 to 2004 was unprecedented, so it can be imagined that the bear trend from 2005 to 200? will also be unprecedented.

Plain old market driving forces of fear and greed. For there is no real reason why house prices have tripled other than greed.

A real 10% drop in house prices will be very bad.
A real 20% drop in house prices will be disastrous
A real 30% drop in house prices will be catastrophic
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Housing-Market

Monday, November 15, 2004

UK House Prices Futures Market Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Futures markets are primarily to hedge against future price movements. So people can 'lock' in a price now and take uncertainty away.

Obviously with house prices, were more talking profit and loss gambling, but if you are looking to sell your house in 15months time, and the futures were at a premium then you could have locked in that price, then you would have the certainty of knowing that, that is the price you will get, i.e. if by then house prices have fallen, you will get less from your sale but have made a profit on the futures. If house prices have risen more than the futures, then you will get more from your sale but have a loss on the futures.
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