Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Central Bank Balance Bullying: Investor Implications / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Axel_Merk
"Bullying" by the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan has been in place for up to six years, forcing not-so-mighty central banks, savers and investors to deal with the consequences. Understanding the dynamics may help investors to navigate what's ahead.
First, let's get one thing straight: it matters little what you; we; or anyone in the blogosphere thinks policy makers should do. We are bystanders that have to deal with the consequences of their actions. The cheapest action undertaken by policy makers is to coerce the markets with verbiage. Their words matter, as they control the printing presses. Having said this, if the words are not followed by action, at some point, the markets may call their bluff.
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Saturday, September 13, 2014
The Fed Has A Big Surprise Waiting For You / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The topic of potential interest rate hikes by central banks is no longer ever far from any serious mind interested in finance. Still, the consensus remains that it will take a while longer, it will take place in a very gradual fashion, and it will all be telegraphed through forward guidance to anyone who feels they have a need or a right to know. Sounds like complacency, doesn’t it?
Friday, September 12, 2014
Debt And The Decline Of Money / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2014
By: Andrew_McKillop
Let it erode, Dump it or Deny it?
For some members of the loosely defined school of Kierkegaard, itself loosely descended from Nietzsche's nihilist school of philosophy, money is a trick invented by human beings to deny their cosmic responsibilities. They use money to create fake value in this world and depreciate the real value of celestial thought and the purpose of cosmic being. Even in this world however, devaluing or repudiating a national money is a time-worn trick for evading responsibilities – like paying debt.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Floating-Rate Funds Poised to Profit as Interest Rates Rise / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Casey_Research
By Andrey Dashkov
Money can’t be this cheap forever. In other words, one of the most likely scenarios the US economy faces is rising interest rates. The current low-interest-rate climate is simply unsustainable. At some point—as it always does—the trend will turn around. We want to be prepared for that turn, and the right floating-rate fund can help.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
Europe Takes the QE Baton / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
If the wide, wide world of investing doesn’t seem a little strange to you these days, it can only be because you’re not paying attention. If you’re paying attention, strange really isn’t the word you’re probably using in your day-to-day investing conversations; it may be more like weird or bizarre. It increasingly feels like we’re living in the world dreamed up by the creators of DC Comics back in the 1960s, called Bizarro World. In popular culture "Bizarro World" has come to mean a situation or setting that is weirdly inverted or opposite from expectations.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
10 Year U.S. Treasury Short Best Place to be Remainder of 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Strategically Shorting Bonds
I have been shorting the 10 year Treasury strategically the last 6 months buying the oversold yield conditions right before the employment report ramp up in yields, it has been quite an effective trading strategy this year, and has contributed in part along with some oil and equity trades to being up over 30% versus the overall market returns for both bond and stock investors which we just approximate to the 10% range year to date depending upon exact portfolio mix.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
What Chimpanzees Can Teach Us about Convertible Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Don_Miller
In a renewed commitment to finally learn Spanish, one of my colleagues spent quite a bit of time this week awkwardly saying, “Qué es eso?” into the headset Rosetta Stone provides with its language learning programs. Translation: “What’s that?”
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Monday, September 08, 2014
U.S. Treasury Bull Market 33rd Anniversary of The Greatest Risk Adjusted Returns in Anglo-American History / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jas_Jain
As we approach the 33rd anniversary of the bull market in the US Treasury 30-year bond, the up-trend in the price, or downtrend in the yield, is fully intact as can be seen in Figure 1.
Monday, September 08, 2014
As ISDAFIX Becomes Next LIBOR, Can GOFO Manage To Avoid The Spotlight? / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: GoldCore
In the wake of the recent LIBOR benchmark interest rate rigging scandal and successful prosecution of a number of global investment banks for participating in LIBOR manipulation, a new interest rate rigging scandal is gathering steam.
Allegations surfaced last year that ISDAFIX, a similar global interest rate benchmark, had been rigged by a group of global banks, and these allegations are under investigation by a number of regulators including the US CFTC and the UK FCA. While the regulators have not provided any feedback as of yet, the class action suits by impacted investors are now beginning.
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Sunday, September 07, 2014
Real U.S. Interest Rates and Future Chaos / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Rubino
The folks at Gresham’s Law just published a nifty interactive chart of real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) interest rates since the 1960s that explains a lot about today’s world.
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Sunday, September 07, 2014
The Simple Truth About QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There’s not a single day that we’re not treated to more smart treats about stimulus measures. Are they necessary, are they good, are they bad, who profits from them. It gets really long in the tooth. Today, former ECB head Trichet says unlimited stimulus ‘risks’ blowing bubbles. “Supplying unlimited amounts of liquidity at interest rates close to zero has “unintended counterproductive consequences.”
Saturday, September 06, 2014
Why There’s Just One Convertible Bond Fund You Should Hold Now / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Casey_Research
By Andrey Dashkov
It might as well be July in San Francisco. There’s fog about why any investor would want to hold convertible bonds in her portfolio, and I’m here to clear that fog away. Their yields aren’t high, their credit ratings often look shaky, and the bonds themselves are quite hard to understand due to their hybrid nature and built-in options.
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Thursday, September 04, 2014
ECB Meets To Tackle Deflation While Ignoring Shrinkflation / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: GoldCore
ECB Meets in Frankfurt
As the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) convenes today in Frankfurt for its monthly policy meeting, markets are focusing on how the ECB will signal the initiation of its quantitative easing (QE) programme which is aimed at countering deflationary forces in the Eurozone.
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Wednesday, September 03, 2014
The U.S. Government Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Moses_Kim
What follows will read like an indictment on our entire economic system. But underlying my (relatively mild) harangue is an observation that people are ignoring the most obvious bubble out there; that is, the bubble in U.S. government bonds. The following is my attempt to figure out why.
Tuesday, September 02, 2014
The Fed's Ice Bucket Challenge / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Michael_Pento
Unless you have been living under a rock for the past month, you have more than likely heard of the ALS Ice bucket challenge. But, just in case you have been living under that rock--the challenge dares nominated participants to be filmed having a bucket of ice water poured on their heads and challenging others to do the same. The stipulation is that the nominated people have 24 hours to comply, or forfeit by way of a charitable donation to ALS. It is an ingenious marketing campaign that has thankfully raised awareness and millions of dollars for ALS.
Friday, August 29, 2014
The Fed Meeting at Jackson Hole Exposed Yellen’s Greatest Weakness / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Money_Morning
James Rickards writes: At the recent central banker conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the two most powerful central bankers in the world, Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), gave back-to-back addresses on the same subject.
It was like a controlled experiment in the attitudes and capabilities of the two leading financial powers in the world.
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Thursday, August 28, 2014
European Bond Market: Bubble of all Bubbles! / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: EconMatters
European Bond Rush
Right now investors in European Bonds are running over each other all in an effort to front run what the Big Banks have been begging the ECB to begin a bond buying program similar to the United States’ QE bond buying program.
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Monday, August 25, 2014
Why Global Bond Yields Are Tumbling / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Michael_Pento
Market pundits appear to be mostly dumbfounded as global bond yields continue to set record lows. For some examples; the 10 year German bund fell below 1%., the Italian 10 year note has dropped below 2.60%, Spanish bonds fell to 2.40 % and Japan is offering a shocking one half of one percent to borrow funds for ten years. Even Greece, whose bonds were on ECB life support just two years ago, has a 10 year note yielding below 6%. Worldwide bond yields are at all-time lows, leaving market commentators scrambling to come up with a creative array of explanations for this phenomenon. Tensions in Ukraine and escalating violence in the Middle East are some favorites. But at least in Europe and Japan, most are willing to attribute record-low bond yields to the real cause…that is no growth and deflation.
Monday, August 25, 2014
The Fed Will Raise U.S. Interest Rates in March 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EconMatters
March or June?
The big question for financial markets is whether the Fed will raise rates in March or June, it used to be Whether it would be June or September of 2015, and I think as the data gets better in the second half of the year, and QE ends in October, the timeline could be moved up even further, say January of 2015 for the first rate hike.
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Saturday, August 23, 2014
U.S. Interest Rates - Is It Time To Ignore The Fed? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Sy_Harding
All eyes are on the Fed. When will it begin to raise interest rates? Some say next summer. Others think sooner, in the first quarter of next year. A few Fed governors insist that will be too late, that the Fed needs to act before year-end.
Analysts hoped some hints could be gleaned by reading between the lines of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday morning, or perhaps from nuances in her tone of voice.
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