Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Markets Failing to Give Another AI Mega-trend Buying Opportunity - 6th Jun 20
Is the Stock Bulls' Cup Half-Full or Half-Empty? - 6th Jun 20
Is America Headed for a Post-Apocalyptic Currency Collapse? - 6th Jun 20
Potential Highs and Lows For Gold In 2020 - 5th Jun 20
Tying Gold Miners and USD Signals for What Comes Next - 5th Jun 20
Rigged Markets - Central Bank Hypnosis - 5th Jun 20
Gold’s role in the Greater Depression of 2020 - 5th Jun 20
UK Coronavirus Catastrophe Trend Analysis Video - 5th Jun 20
Why Land Rover Discovery Sport SAT NAV is Crap, Use Google Maps Instead - 5th Jun 20
Stock Market Election Year Cycles – What to Expect? - 4th Jun 20
Why Solar Stocks Are Rallying Against All Odds - 4th Jun 20
East Asia Will Be a Post-Pandemic Success - 4th Jun 20
Comparing Bitcoin to Other Market Sectors – Risk vs. Value - 4th Jun 20
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals - 3rd Jun 20
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation - 3rd Jun 20
The Corona Riots Begin, US Covid-19 Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 20 -
Stock Market Short-term Top? - 3rd Jun 20
Deflation: Why the "Japanification" of the U.S. Looms Large - 3rd Jun 20
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention - 3rd Jun 20
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter


Early Reversal Signs in EUR/USD

Currencies / Forex Trading Jul 30, 2009 - 02:55 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFollowing an early July high of 1.4337 we had, for various technical reasons, adopted a somewhat speculative bear stance in EUR/USD. After an initial move down (to our first ‘profit-taking’ level) subsequent consolidative action eventually sidelined us – but now, the negative signs are creeping back again…

The FX Trader’s view


Support on the long term chart has come in above 50% so far.

But any rallies in price continue to be viewed as corrective/temporary, like that of late last year.

Note that the old broken rising support/return line could still be exerting its influence here.

It is possible, over time, for this market to slip back to the 76.4% retracement, near 1.0000 – there is an interesting Fibo projection down here too…


In Jun the market had come to a halt not far above a Fibo projection we had previously calculated at 1.4270.

Clear support came from the 1.3737 Mar high, and we had viewed subsequent consolidative action as the precursor to another bear leg.

We had sidelined after the break through falling resistance, but saw the small channel top projection as key to any bull success/bear failure.
It has provided excellent resistance!

Looking closer…



We switch to a candlestick chart to highlight the 28-Jul Key Reversal Day – ideally this is normally marked by a notable blow-off move on the day, but here, at least, the day was marked by steadily down-trending prices followed the next day by further weakness that broke the 1.4118 23-Jul low and then closed below that old falling resistance/return line.

A close below the channel base (1.3920 currently) would confirm the bear signs, but we will adopt an aggressive bear stance ahead of this, while the 1.4303 28-Jul high stays intact.

The initial target would be a retest of the 1.3747/37 support, ahead of

the 1.3618 38.2% retracement. Preliminary thoughts for aggressive sellers on rallies are to sell 10 ticks ahead of the 61.8% bounce level, from whatever s/term low exists at the time (1.4190=current 61.8% level), initial stops ideally just above 1.4303, but at minimum above the 76.4% level (1.4233 currently). Partial profits would either be targeted at the small channel base or towards 1.3747/37.

Philip Allwright
Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead
Be sure to sign up for and receive these articles automatically at Market Updates

Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

© 2009 Copyright Seven Days Ahead - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Seven Days Ahead Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules