Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Jobless Data Shock and Stocks Diamond Formation Signals Imminent Market Plunge

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jan 10, 2010 - 05:56 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. unexpectedly lost 85,000 jobs in December and revisions showed payrolls increased the prior month for the first time in almost two years, indicating improvement in the labor market will be halting.   Payrolls decreased last month after a November gain of 4,000, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected no change in December employment. The jobless rate held at 10 percent.  


Not mentioned in the article is that October payrolls were revised down from -111,000 to -127,000.  The CES Birth/Death Model added 64,000 hypothetical jobs to the ranks of the employed.  If the “discouraged workers” were kept in the labor force statistics, the unemployment rate would be 12%.

There’s a new debt ceiling, but does it matter?

On December 28, 2009 President Obama signed into existence the bill that allows the debt ceiling to be raised to $12.394 trillion.  The bills were passed along party lines in both the House and Senate.  But most debt clocks shattered that limit long before, since there is “debt subject to limit” and off-budget debt that doesn’t see the light of day.  Our lawmakers, however, will run out of wiggle room by March 1, 2010.  This may be the last time they can “kick the can down the road.”

 

 

 

Diamonds are not the market’s friend.
-- A unique diamond formation is now apparent in the S&P 500 Index.  If this formation is appropriate, stocks are due for a fall in the very near future.   The Diamond Formation is a result of a Broadening Top formation combined with a Wedge Formation.  While the Wedge is fairly common, the Broadening Top is not.  It is usually seen at important market highs.

 

 

 

Treasury bonds start the year off badly.
-- Treasuries fell, heading for a weekly loss, before a U.S. report that economists said will show a 23- month run of job losses ended in December.
I am quoting an article from the previous day since the employment situation was worse than expected.  A decline in employment may have the effect of reducing bond yields and driving up the price.

 

 

 

Gold bounces at its trendline.
-- Gold prices fell as the dollar pared a decline, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. The greenback was down 0.2 percent against a basket of six major currencies after dropping as much as 0.7 percent following a report that showed the U.S. unexpectedly lost jobs last month. Gold rose 24 percent last year as the dollar fell 4.2 percent.

 

 

 

The Nikkei had a Santa Rally.

-- Japanese stocks rose on speculation overseas earnings will climb, as the yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar since August following comments by Finance Minister Naoto Kan.   The weaker yen has the potential effect of boosting exports, which may boost manufacturing stocks.

 

 

 

The Shanghai index slumps.
-- Chinese stocks have lost 2.5 percent in the first week of trading this year on concern government steps to curb lending growth and property speculation will slow expansion in the world’s third-largest economy. The central bank offered three- month bills at a higher rate and said it will seek “moderate” loan growth to support the economy while managing inflation expectations.

 

 

 

The dollar pulls back from a strong advance.

The dollar fell from a four-month high against the yen as U.S. employers unexpectedly eliminated jobs last month, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve may extend stimulus measures.

 The headline doesn’t sit well with the dollar,” said Brian Kim, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. “People had been bracing for a flat to positive number. It puts expectations for a Fed rate hike on ice.”

 

 

The market remains irrational on commercial property.
 -- The U.S. apartment vacancy rate rose to an almost 30-year high of 8 percent in the fourth quarter, and rents dropped in the biggest one-year slump in 2009, according to real estate research company Reis Inc.
In the fourth quarter, the U.S. apartment vacancy rate rose 0.10 percentage points from the prior quarter and 1.3 percentage points for the year. At 8 percent, it was the highest national vacancy rate Reis has recorded in its 30 years of tracking the sector.

 


Gasoline prices almost $1.00 higher than a year ago.

The Energy Information Agency weekly report suggests, “The U.S. average price for regular gasoline increased six cents to $2.67 per gallon, $0.98 higher than the price a year ago. Prices rose in all regions of the country. On the East Coast, the average went up a nickel to $2.65 per gallon. The largest increase occurred in the Midwest where the price jumped eight cents to $2.64 per gallon.”

 

 

 

 

Frigid weather affects NatGas prices.
The Energy Information Agency’s Natural Gas Weekly Update reports, “Frigid temperatures throughout most of the lower 48 States and rising crude oil prices appear to have contributed to rising natural gas prices. Price increases since last Wednesday ranged between $0.06 and $7.89 per MMBtu. In general, prices increased by less than $1 per MMBtu at most market locations on the week. However, significant price run-ups in select regions of the lower 48 States characterized the week.”

 

Is Uncle Ben really that dense?

If there is one man in the nation's capitol who maybe isn't too unhappy about Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner being in the news today, it's probably Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who delivered a speech titled Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble over the weekend, a topic that continues to generate a lot of discussion at mid-week, little of it positive.

I will not repeat what others have already written about a speech that, one day, will probably rival (if not exceed) in ignominy the Fed chairman's "helicopter speech" from a decade ago.  This link will recap the weakness of his arguments.

Is The Government Misrepresenting Unemployment By 32%?
(The) government spent a record $14.7 billion on Unemployment Insurance Benefits as of December 30, a 24% jump sequentially from the $11.8 billion in November. Yet the DOL has disclosed a mere 1.7% increase in those to whom insurance benefits are paid: from 9.4 million to just under 9.6 million. To put the $14.7 billion number in perspective, in December the Federal Government paid a total of $14 billion ($700 million less) in Federal Salaries!

And some more perspective: in calendar 2009 the government has paid $140 billion in Unemployment Insurance Benefits. This is yet another economic stimulus that nobody in the administration discusses, yet which undoubtedly has the biggest impact on the economy, as all those millions unemployed can moderate their pain courtesy of a passable weekly check from the government which should just about cover the rent and beer.

Traders alert:  The Practical Investor is currently offering the daily Inner Circle Newsletter to new subscribers.  Contact us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com for a free sample newsletter and subscription information.

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski,
President and CIO
http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules