Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Natural Gas Sets Up Bottom Pattern - 26th June 19
Has Gold Price Broken Out Or Not? Technicals And Fundamentals - 26th June 19
Stocks and XAU Gold Miners Next Bull and Bear Markets are Now Set Up - 26th June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Video - 25th June 19
Today’s Pets.com and NINJA Loan Economy - 25th June 19
Testing the Fed’s Narrative with the Fed’s Data: QT Edition - 25th June 19
What "Pro Traders" use to Find Profitable Trades - eBook - 25th June 19
GDX Gold Stocks ETF - 25th June 19
What Does Facebook’s LIBRA New Crytocurrency Really Offer? - 25th June 19
Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico - 25th June 19
The Next Great Depression in the Making - 25th June 19
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Gold Jumps on Record Chinese Export Data, Silver Hits 30-Year High vs. Sterling

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jan 11, 2010 - 07:52 AM GMT

By: Adrian_Ash

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTHE PRICE OF GOLD and silver both leapt alongside oil prices, base metals and agricultural commodities at the start of Monday's trading, touching a 5-week high against the US Dollar at $1160 an ounce.

Government bonds also pushed higher, sending interest rates lower from last week's multi-month highs.


World stock markets rose 0.5% on the MSCI index.

The US Dollar index – measuring its exchange rate against a basket of other major currencies – fell to its lowest level since Dec. 12th.

"Gold gapped $20 higher at the open in Asia on news of record import figures from China and a weaker US Dollar," notes one London dealer.

Beijing today reported 18% growth in Chinese exports and 56% growth in total imports for last month.

Consensus forecasts had been for 4% and 31% growth respectively. Crude oil deliveries to China – now the world's largest private gold consumer, as well as the No.1 gold mining producer – broke 5 million barrels per day for the first time.

Friday's US pay-roll data, in contrast, was headlined by 85,000 job losses for Dec. But the Labor Dept.'s survey of households in fact pointed to "an enormous" rise in unemployment of 589,000 notes hedge-fund manager and investment author John Mauldin of Millennium Wave.

"Those classified as not in the work force, due to the fact that they did not look for jobs, rose by 843,000."

The US Dollar sank at the start of Asian trade on Monday, losing over 1¢ per Euro and dropping towards four-week lows that unwound more than a quarter of Dec.'s sharp rally.

The price of gold rose faster than the Dollar fell, however, briefly jumping above €800 an ounce for French, German and Italian citizens – a level breached only two days running early last month.

British investors now ready to buy gold saw the price hit £720 an ounce today, barely 2% below the all-time high of early Dec.

US investors saw the London Gold Fix hit a five-week high, some 5% below its all-time peak of Dec. 3rd.

"Gold prices had become overbought [by early Dec.] and that condition has now been corrected," says the latest Precious Metals Monthly from Canada's Scotia Mocatta bullion bank.

"The longer term picture remains bullish and there is still considerable risk and uncertainty as to how the economic malaise will be sorted out.

"In addition, geopolitical issues have resurfaced," says the market maker, citing the attempted Christmas Day airliner bombing, the rising oil price, and political unrest as well as further nuclear tests in Iran.

Latest data from US regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed late Friday that total open interest in New York gold futures and options rose 3.2% last week to a three-week high, but remained more than a tenth below the record peak of late Nov.

Market positioning in the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed little change however for either commercial (industry) players, large speculators (hedge funds etc.) and non-reportable positions (i.e. smaller institutions and private investors).

Commercial players acting for gold miners, refiners and bullion wholesalers continued to hold 3 bearish bets for every 1 bullish contract.

The "net long" position held by speculative, non-commercial traders rose by the equivalent of 8 tonnes to 921 tonnes, still more than 10% below the record of late Oct.

New York's SPDR Gold Trust – the world's largest exchange-traded gold fund – reduced the volume of gold bullion needed to back its stock-market shares by almost 1% to three-week low of 1119.5 tonnes.

"We are expecting further strength in Gold prices, driven not just by Dollar weakness but also by fear of inflation and fiscal dislocations, plus continuing asset diversification moves by central banks," says David Wilson of Société Générale – the highest price-forecaster for 2010 at $1388 in this year's survey by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

The average forecast in 2009 was more than 10% below last year's out-turn at $880. Amongst the 28 bank analysts, traders and dealers surveyed last week, the consensus 2010 forecast puts this year's average gold price just shy of $1200.

"[For silver,] better economic data bodes well for industrial demand," says Scotia Mocatta today, "but overall the market will remain dependent on investors' interest."

Silver prices jumped 2.2% vs. the Dollar early Monday, and touched new 18-month highs vs. the Euro.

Priced in British Pounds Sterling, silver hit a near-30 year high above £11.64 an ounce.

The correlation of silver prices with industrial metals led by copper rose throughout the second-half of 2009.

Analysis prepared by the GFMS consultancy for Washington's non-profit Silver Institute in November said that a sharp drop in industrial and photographic use during 2009 would likely be offset by a near-tripling in coin production and investment-bar hoarding.

Adrian Ash

By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

Gold price chart, no delay | Free Report: 5 Myths of the Gold Market
Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at www.BullionVault.com , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2010

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules