Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024 - 15th June 24
Gold Price Consolidating at High - 15th June 24
NVIDIA Stock Market: Price Prediction for the Future - 15th June 24
When Will the Boom/ Bust Rollercoaster End? - 15th June 24
Stock Market Trouble Lies Ahead. Are You Ready For It? - 15th June 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 8th June 24
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now - 8th June 24
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market - 8th June 24
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown - 8th June 24
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports - 8th June 24
Gold Summer Doldrums - 8th June 24
S&P USD Correction - 7th June 24
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza - 7th June 24
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To - 7th June 24
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH - 7th June 24
How Much Gold Is There In the World? - 7th June 24
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? - 7th June 24
Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy - 31st May 24
Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency - 31st May 24
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total - 31st May 24
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? - 31st May 24
Gold Stocks Catching Up - 31st May 24
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Making Bearish Lower Highs and Lows

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Feb 28, 2010 - 10:09 AM GMT

By: Merv_Burak


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe daily gold trading information still does not give me great confidence that a new bull market is ahead.  Lower highs and lower lows has been the pattern these past few months and needs to change.


The long term P&F chart is still in a bear mode however the activity over the past few days has given us a new resistance level that once breached would reverse the mode into a bull mode.  A move to the $1140 level now would do it.  In the mean time, bear is the operational P&F mode.

As for the usual indicators, they are more positive.  Gold continues to trade above its positive sloping moving average line.  The momentum indicator continues to track inside its positive zone and remains above its positive trigger line.  Only the volume indicator is somewhat negative.  It is tracking a basic lateral path and is below its still slightly positive trigger line.  All in all the rating for the long term remains BULLISH.


Over the past several weeks gold has established a resistance level at about the $1130 mark and needs to break through that level to show it is on the move.  For now it is still some $11 below that level, close but not quite there yet.  Gold dropped below its moving average line earlier in the week but closed on Friday above the line.  The moving average line itself is still in a downward slope.  This would most surely change should the price breach that resistance level.  The volume indicator is moving in a sideways path but remains below its negative sloping trigger line.  The momentum indicator is just above its neutral line in the positive zone and is above its positive trigger line.  The intermediate term rating is BULLISH but we could do with the moving average turning upward.  The short term moving average line is just a hair below the intermediate term line and should confirm this bull rating in another day or so.


The short term has been bouncing around lately and this week it closed on the positive side.  Gold closed the week above its positive short term moving average line.  The momentum indicator is back above its neutral line in the positive zone and above its positive trigger line.  The daily volume activity is still weak and could do with more enthusiasm from the speculators.  The short term is rated as BULLISH.  The very short term moving average line remains above the short term line for confirmation of this rating.

The immediate direction of least resistance seems to be to the up side but there is that resistance level at about the $1130 level that may ruin that direction.  I’ll go with the up side for now but will watch that resistance level.


I keep reading all these articles that silver is the place to be and that it is much more bullish for the future than gold.  From time to time I even echo that sentiment based upon technical comparisons.  In the end the ACTUAL TRADING in silver tells us what the professionals REALLY think of silver at any period in time.  Although silver had a better week than gold it is still in a weaker technical position than gold.  The short and intermediate term Relative Strength (RS) for silver in the weekly Table suggests that silver is in the bottom half of all the components in the table as far as performance is concerned.  One bright spot is that, although the silver RS is in the bottom half its performance is improving and maybe we will see some change in its performance versus the other Table components soon.

On the long term, silver is below its negative moving average line, the momentum is in its positive zone above a positive trigger line and the volume indicator is still below its negative trigger line.  The long term rating is therefore just above a full bear rating at – NEUTRAL.

On the intermediate term, silver is below its negative sloping moving average line, the momentum is below its neutral line in the negative zone but above its positive sloping trigger line and the volume indicator still remains below its negative trigger line.  All in all the intermediate term is still fully BEARISH although not too far from improving.  The short term moving average line is still some distance from the intermediate term line providing continued confirmation of the bear.

On the short term silver has moved above its short term moving average line and the line is sloping in an upward direction.  The momentum indicator has just moved into its positive zone and is above its positive sloping trigger line.  The daily volume activity is picking up as the daily silver activity is moving higher.  On the short term we are fully BULLISH.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that seems to be to the up side.



One of this week’s six stocks reviewed in my weekly Stock Review Section of the Subscribers site was Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (N-GDX).  Since that stock is based upon the NYSE Acra Gold Miners Index I thought I’d show that Index this week.  The ETF stock price tracks a very similar path to the Index as one would expect although on the short term one can see minor differences in activity.  There is always a question when one is interested in an ETF which is based upon an Index.  Should one act on the activity in the stock one is interested in or should one base their decision on the activity of the Index since the stock movement is based upon the Index.  My own personal view would be to act on the actions of the stock with one important proviso, if the stock price starts to exceed the performance of the Index wait for the two to come back in sync otherwise you may be paying a premium that will vanish.

An interesting point when buying into any ETF that is based upon a basket of component stocks in an Index is that it is important to understand how that basket is used towards the Index calculation.  As an example, the above Index has 32 component stocks in its basket.  Since the Index calculation is based upon a weighted method three stocks alone represent 40% of the Index while the bottom one third of the stocks only represent 3.3% of the Index.  You could have a significant portion of the component stocks of the Index in roaring bull markets but the top three stocks could just keep the Index from showing that performance.  This is a problem with investing in ETFs in general.

Overall it was a quiet week in the gold and silver stocks.  Most of the stocks in my universe of 160 stocks closed with minor gains or losses.  There were only 10 stocks with double digit moves, 7 on the up side and 3 on the down side.  Only one stock had a move greater than 30%, one of my guides as to the strength of moves.  As a comparison of the 30 stocks in the Penny Arcade Index there were 8 double digit movers, 4 on the up side and 4 on the down side.  There were no moves greater than 30% indicating a lazy week in the pennies.

The Merv’s Penny Arcade Index does look like it’s ready for a new upside move.  The downside seems to have stabilized but we’ll have to see the new move before we say it’s happening.

Merv’s Precious Metals Indices Table

Well, that will be it for this week.

By Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Technical Information Group
for Merv's Precious Metals Central

For DAILY Uranium stock commentary and WEEKLY Uranium market update check out my new Technically Uranium with Merv blog at .

During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician ( CMT ) and tries to decipher what's going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of Canada 's Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv's driving focus is to KEEP IT SIMPLE .

To find out more about Merv's various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit . There you will find samples of the Indices and their component stocks plus other publications of interest to gold investors.

Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a Qualified Professional Market Technician

Merv Burak Archive

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in