Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK Solar Eclipse - End Time Sign, Judgement Day, Doomsday! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold And Silver - When Will Precious Metals Rally? Not In 2015 - Michael_Noonan
4.Preparing for the Next Stocks Bear Market - Forecast 2015-2016 - Gary_Savage
5.Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent? - David Eifrig
6.Gold Price Slumps as US Dollar Soars, What's Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Dollar Forex Pairs and Gold Chartology - Rambus_Chartology
8.Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The ECB Should End QE Next Month - EconMatters
10.Silver Price Poised to Surge - Zeal_LLC
Last 5 days
Deflation Watch: Key U.S. Economic Measures Turn South - 27th Mar 15
The Hard-Earned Truth About Recreational Real Estate - 27th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Still in Important Territory - 27th Mar 15
Stocks Bear Market Conditions - Index Market Range Warning - 27th Mar 15
BEA Leaves Q4 2014 U.S. GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.22% - 27th Mar 15
Brazil Economy Victim of Vulgar Keynesianism - 27th Mar 15
Gold to Fuel Silver Price Upleg - 27th Mar 15
Gold and Silver Stocks Will Rise Again! - 27th Mar 15
Risk of ‘World War’ between NATO and Russia on Ukraine as Yemen Bombed - 27th Mar 15
FOMC Minutes Turned The Gold Tide - 27th Mar 15
Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps - 27th Mar 15
Gold Effect On Mining & Shale Wasteland - 27th Mar 15
How Stock Investors Should Play the 2016 Presidential Race - 26th Mar 15
MidEast Energy Alert: Why the Crisis in Yemen Could Get Ugly Very Fast - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Downward Spiral of Dumbness - 26th Mar 15
The Monetary Approach Reigns Supreme - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Large Gap Down, Despite the Algos' Push Back - 26th Mar 15
Crude Oil Surges, Gold price Spikes as Middle East Tensions Escalate - 26th Mar 15
The U.S. Housing Market Recovery Is Fabricated Optimism - 26th Mar 15
Why Yemen Is The Next Saudi-Iranian Battleground - 26th Mar 15
The Crude Oil Price Crash and China Economic Slow Down - 26th Mar 15
Global Financial Markets Are More Distorted Than Ever Before - 26th Mar 15
One More Stock Market Rally and Then a Huge Drop Expected - 26th Mar 15
Danger Will Robinson - Stock Market Crash Warning - 25th Mar 15
Learn the Basics of Corrective Elliott Waves - 25th Mar 15
Why CNBC Is Hazardous to Your Financial Health! - 25th Mar 15
Will Your Retirement Accounts Survive The Coming Tax Code "Revolution"? - 25th Mar 15
US Dollar - Americas Phoenix - 25th Mar 15
California’s Epic Drought: Only One Year of Water Left! - 25th Mar 15
What’s Wrong With Silver? - 25th Mar 15
SPX Futures Appear Weak. WTIC and Gold May Be at Max Retracement - 25th Mar 15
We’re at the Dawn of a “New Energy Age” - 25th Mar 15
A Very Weak U.S. Economic Recovery - 25th Mar 15
Zero UK CPI Inflation Rate Prompts Deflation Danger Propaganda For Fresh Money Printing - 25th Mar 15
Stock Market NYSE Hi-Lo Index Aggressive Sell Signal - 24th Mar 15
Palladium Commodity Price Forecast - 24th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Gearing Up for a Fall - 24th Mar 15
Safety Deposit Boxes In UK Being Closed By ‏HSBC – Not Closing Gold Vaults - 24th Mar 15
Japan Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster - 24th Mar 15
China's Fragile Evolution - 24th Mar 15
David Cameron Announces Resignation Even Before Being Re-elected, Handing Labour 6 Seats - 24th Mar 15
City of London's Ownership of American Colonies - 24th Mar 15
Stock Market Reversal May Have Begun - 24th Mar 15
Casey Gathers Top Gold Experts to Share Secrets for Making Money in Any Market - 24th Mar 15
Thoughts on The Current Crude Oil Market - 24th Mar 15
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support - What Your Governments Hiding From You... - 24th Mar 15
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video - 24th Mar 15
Is Stock Market Minor Top Taking Hold? - 23rd Mar 15
Greece and EU Running Out of Time as Bank Runs Intensify - 23rd Mar 15
Stock Market Slightly Negative Expectations Following Last Week's Rally - 23rd Mar 15
This Rising Interest Rates Play Could Make You a Quick 55% - 23rd Mar 15
Platinum Commodity Price False Break Low - 23rd Mar 15
The Real Reason The American Dream is Unraveling - 23rd Mar 15
Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail to Impress Voters, Tory's Lose Seats in Opinion Polls - 23rd Mar 15
Silver Price Reliance During U.S. Dollar Rally - 23rd Mar 15
Gold Price Outlook Dramatic Improvement Following US Dollar Topping Action - 23rd Mar 15
Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Do This - 22nd Mar 15
The "Natural Interest Rate" Is Always Positive and Cannot Be Negative - 22nd Mar 15
Exploring The Gold Market: The Fed, The Charts. The COTS and GLD - 22nd Mar 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 22nd Mar 15
Gold And Silver - China's AIIB Spells U.s. Dollar Demise, Not Clear For Precious Metals - 22nd Mar 15
Cocoa Commodity Price Technical Outlook - 21st Mar 15
Yield Curve, Futures, Suggest No U.S. Interest Rate Hike Until December - 21st Mar 15
Three Iconic Stocks Are Poised for a Dive - 21st Mar 15
We're All Hedge Funds Now! - 21st Mar 15
Why Stock Market Seasonality May Be Critical in 2015 - 20th Mar 15
Yellen's Tiger Riding Dilemma Keeps Interest Rates Near Zero - 20th Mar 15
FOMC is boxed in, Gold and Silver - 20th Mar 15
Silver Price Poised to Surge - 20th Mar 15
Why Aren’t These Investors Worried About The Gold Price? - 20th Mar 15
Gold Price Downside $850/oz; Upside Jump to $2,000/oz on ‘Grexit’ - 20th Mar 15
Cheap Paper Money - Precious Metals Technical Outlook - 20th Mar 15
Best Cash ISA vs Budget 2015 Scrapping Tax on Savings Interest on First £1,000 - 20th Mar 15
GDXJ / Gold Ratio - 20th Mar 15
What the “Yellen Effect” Ultimately Means for Crude Oil - 20th Mar 15
Sharp Fall In USD Index And Its Implications - 20th Mar 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Economy Still on Life Support

The Dollar Nears it's Cyclical Ides of March

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Mar 02, 2010 - 05:28 AM GMT

By: Bob_Clark

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe indexes closed near the high of their monthly range. The S&P and the Nasdaq have been out performing the Dow.  
The transports were very strong Friday making new highs for the recent rally.  The long term interest rates fell hitting levels last see two months ago, as bond prices also closed near monthly highs.  You know a rising tide is lifting all boats when bonds rally, indicating a slowing economy and transports rally suggesting more products being moved and sold.  Clearly the market smells a change in money flow.


Even the dollar closed at it's highs, this must be hurting the Chinese exports to Europe etc. after they benefited so strongly from their yuan/dollar peg during the dollar weakness.  At a time when countries around the world want lower currency values so they can export their way out of debt, it is clear the upward revaluing of the dollar is an impediment.

The metals fought their way back up to close with small gains or losses for the month and near the top of their ranges as well.  The bullish sentiment is coming back into some of the gauges such as the investor's intelligence.
 
It goes to show, if you throw enough money at something, it will increase in value.  Correlation still rules.
 
I received an Email from a reader which made me realize that because I am skilled at calling the market and because these Emails are sent everyday the focus can narrow down somewhat. Exacerbating this, is the fact that we have been going sideways since October in many markets. The purpose of the advisory is to help people reduce risk and stay with the bigger trends.  So if you are a "buy and hold investor" keep in mind that when I make short term calls, that it may not be applicable to your investment planning and strategy.
 
US$...below I have inserted a chart of the dollar going back 20 years.  In it I have inserted  the 3 year cycle which you see is very consistent.  Notice that the next year plus time zone in the 3 year cycle has not been kind to the dollar over the last 20 years.  It is possible that the pattern has changed and  we have started a major up trend in the dollar that will cause the 3 year pattern to fail or give a late translation but we can't bet on it yet.  If the normal pattern is still in force then it has bullish ramifications for stocks and the metals over the next year. It is still too early to call a top in this rally but keep this chart in mind.92
 

SPY...notice we really have not done much in the last 4-5 months. It has been a traders market lately and buy and holders are getting frustrated.  I think this is a rest stop more than a turning point.  Remember we are approaching the one year anniversary of the march low and the stock market may give us a dip in the early March time frame to acknowledge it.  It would be nice to see the bullish sentiment back off one more time, it is the only thing making me nervous  right now.  If we are going to get a c leg down in this correction we need to do it soon.  I am trading both sides of the market as we try to get traction.
 


 
XIU...no chart...The xiu is is being buoyed by the commodities and the U.S. stock indexes.  It seems to have made a good low but it too could be influenced by the psychology of a  March low as well. 


 
 
GLD...if we are going to go up in gold we need to to see some convincing buying over the next week. A  wave C down in the stock indexes will put a damper on this rally but for now I am bullish because of the seasonals and the chart.  Buy dips as long as last weeks low is intact, and when I say buy the dips I am not recommending short term trades, sit tight and see what happens. We should see 117 but use a stop loss.


 

 


 
 SLV...remains in a bullish mode as well, what I said about gld applies here but because of the commercial positions as show in the latest Commitment of traders report (posted on my blog), I favor slv over gld.  Again, buy dips as long as last weeks low holds. Look for 18 if it does.
We have moved our stop up to 14.90 on original positions bought at 14.45 which is a long term trade
 
 

 


 
GDX...because markets are so correlated, gold stocks will be at risk of a March c wave in the general indexes, just as the metals are but seasonal factors remain positive for a while.  A failure now would call the bigger cycles in the metals into question.  The juniors I follow are lagging which is a worry.
 
 TLT...I put in a chart of the yield ($TYX) tonight instead of the bonds themselves to show how rates have dropped.  Rates need to keep falling to help our cause on the metals.  The markets seem to be smelling a fresh round of quantitative easing not yet visible. 
 
 
   
Like the dollar chart above we are fast approaching the time when the metals and their stocks turn and make seasonal yearly lows.  We must remain aware of the possibility that we fail in an attempt to breach recent highs and defend against a sell off with well placed stop loss protection.  The same logic applies to the markets in general.  The fed for some reason has been letting the M2 money supply shrink and if this continues it will be hard to press all markets higher.

This week should either see a high water mark for price or we pop.  Beware the ides of March or at least be aware of it.

Bob Clark is a professional trader with over twenty years experience, he also provides real time online trading instruction, publishes a daily email trading advisory and maintains a web blog at www.winningtradingtactics.blogspot.com  his email is linesbot@gmail.com.

© 2010 Copyright Bob Clark - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014