Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Stock Market Buyers Beware

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Mar 24, 2010 - 03:04 PM GMT

By: Toby_Connor

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe rally off the February bottom is now going on 32 days.  This is probably not the best time to chase stocks higher.  I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks that the market needs to take a breather, preferably before earnings season as it would then be setup for a strong rally through April.


As the “normal” cycle in stocks lasts on average 35-45 days trough to trough we are now getting very deep in the cycle and in jeopardy of putting in a short term top at any time. We just need a catalyst to halt this incredible momentum move.

I’ve been expecting a runaway move to develop as this rally progressed but this is starting to turn into a parabolic move.  Since the February bottom the market has ended higher 68% of the past 32 days and hasn’t closed below the 10 day moving average in over a month.

Compared to the runaway move in 06/07 which averaged 57% up days it’s apparent this rally is getting very overheated.

The leading tech sector is also becoming rather stretched.  At $3.00 above the 50 day moving average it’s now in the range that has marked the tops of previous daily cycles.

Not to mention the Nasdaq 100 is only 12 points away from major resistance.

And the SPYDER’s are now bumping up against the declining 200 week moving average.

I doubt they will be able to penetrate and hold above this level on the first try.

I suspect the catalyst will come from the same area it came from in January, another leg up in the dollar.

The breakout above 81 today gives pretty good odds that the dollar will now be heading up to test the pivot at 83.  That should be an ending move for the current intermediate stock cycle. The expectation would then be for stocks to rally hard for the next four or five weeks as the dollar works its way down into an intermediate low in early to mid May.

I expect the markets to hang in reasonably well during the impending correction, possibly filling the March 5th gap.  Once the dollar begins the trip down we should see an explosive move in stocks and commodities, possibly the final surge higher in this third leg of the cyclical bull market.

I’m expecting the correction in stocks will also correspond to the final leg down in what now looks to be a D-wave decline in gold that will most likely test the $1000-$1025 level. The left translated character of the current daily cycle is also confirming this.

That should be followed by a powerful A-wave advance as the dollar moves down into its intermediate cycle low.

For now the best strategy is to sit patiently and wait for the dollar to rally up into resistance at the 83 level and the market to move down into the cycle low. Once that happens we should have a fairly low risk entry for long positions in almost any asset class as the dollar works its way down into the intermediate cycle low.

Toby Connor
Gold Scents  

A financial blog with emphasis on the gold bull market.

© 2010 Copyright Toby Connor - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules