Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21
US House Prices Momentum Analysis - 20th Feb 21
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now - 20th Feb 21
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset - 20th Feb 21
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? - 20th Feb 21
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD - 20th Feb 21
The Stock Market Big Picture - 19th Feb 21
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? - 19th Feb 21
Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! - 19th Feb 21
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold - 19th Feb 21
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness - 19th Feb 21
Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test - 19th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 19th Feb 21
New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way - 19th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! - 18th Feb 21
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now - 18th Feb 21
The Commodity Cycle - 18th Feb 21
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze - 18th Feb 21
Why I’m Avoiding These “Bottle Rocket” Stocks Like GameStop - 18th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs - 18th Feb 21
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! - 18th Feb 21
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT - 18th Feb 21
Crypto Mining Craze, How We Mined 6 Bitcoins with a PS4 Gaming Console - 18th Feb 21
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review - 17th Feb 21
Vaccine Nationalism Is a Multilateral, Neocolonial Failure - 17th Feb 21
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? - 17th Feb 21
5 Reasons Why People Prefer to Trade Options Over Stocks - 17th Feb 21
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal - 17th Feb 21
WARNING Oculus Quest 2 Update v25 BROKE My VR Headset! - 17th Feb 21
UK Covid-19 Parks PACKED During Lockdown Despite "Stay at Home" Message - Endcliffe Park Sheffield - 17th Feb 21
How to Invest in ETFs in the UK - 17th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian Ethnic minorities are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 16th Feb 21
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 16th Feb 21
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean - 16th Feb 21
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper - 16th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? - 16th Feb 21
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? - 16th Feb 21
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS! Investing Newbs Pump and Dump Roller coaster Ride - 16th Feb 21
Thinking About Starting to Trade This Year? Here Are Some Things to Keep in Mind - 16th Feb 21
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review - 15th Feb 21
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? - 15th Feb 21
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? - 15th Feb 21
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless - 15th Feb 21
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink - 15th Feb 21
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally - 15th Feb 21
How to Change Car Battery Without Losing Power, Memory, Radio Code Settings - 15th Feb 21
Five reasons why a financial advisor can make a big difference to your small business - 15th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Trading Lessons From the 1998 Russian Debt Default

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Apr 23, 2010 - 05:38 AM GMT

By: Steven_Vincent

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI remember the 1998 Russian debt default crisis and the associated Long Term Capital Management collapse very well. I was a novice trader who found the bearish arguments of the time convincing. It was evident, they said, that the market was in a massive bubble based on debt and loose money and that it couldn't go on much longer before the whole thing blew up. All that was needed was the right catalyst. Not knowing yet that the trend is your friend, I lost money continually trying to short every rally.


When the Russian crisis struck I began to short heavily and made some remarkable gains for a time. In the end all my profits and my capital evaporated in the massive rally that came out of the shakeout.

The current situation surrounding Greece reminds me of the 1998 setup in many respects. Both events involve an extended, overbought bull run. Both involve scenarios that seemingly manifest the deflationist bear criteria for "the collapse". Both follow up scary financial panics (the 1998 affair was preceded by the 1997 Asian contagion crisis).

There are many differences of course. Today we are rallying against a 10 year bear trend after a historic financial panic and the move is only now being accepted as "real". In 1998 the market was well into a major, nearly continuous bull trend and it was broadly accepted with widespread public participation. And twelve years ago, Russia's debt troubles were primarily internal whereas Greece is much more involved in the international debt markets and the condition of global financial markets was not nearly as suspect then as it is today. Russia was clearly an isolated, primarily internal problem whereas the Greece troubles are part of a continent-wide European sovereign debt crisis.

Interestingly, when the decline began in July the price of the S&P 500 was at nearly the same level that it finds itself today--1191.

The first indications of trouble in Russia came on March 23rd when a political crisis came to a head as Russian president Boris Yeltsin suddenly dismissed Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and his entire cabinet. After an extended, nearly continuous run off an early year bottom the first wave of fear rippled through the market and it began to falter.

On July 13, a $22.6 billion International Monetary Fund and World Bank financial package was approved on to support reforms and stabilize the Russian market by swapping out an enormous volume of the quickly maturing GKO short-term bills into long-term Eurobonds. As you can see from the chart, the market was not expecting IMF/World Bank intervention and was caught by surprise.

On August 17th, Russia announced the suspension of debt payments and other measures which amounted to sovereign debt default. A panic ensued, leading to a total 23% decline in under 2 months.

A month later, Long Term Capital Management collapsed as a result of the Russian crisis and was bailed out.

Does this scenario sound familiar? The Greek Tragedy unfolding on the world stage today has thus far followed the Russian script nearly to the letter.

In January the market topped as the Euro rolled over and the US Dollar surged on fears that Greece would default and trigger a European financial contagion. As in '98, the market quickly caught its footing and rallied nearly vertically to new highs. Are we now at a peak similar to that of July 1998?

This week the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the Greek government are meeting to attempt to resolve the crisis. The consensus seems to be growing that there is no way for Greece to avoid using an IMF/EU bailout fund established last month, which would in effect be a sovereign debt default.

A default announcement could even come as soon as this weekend. Greek debt downgrades have become an almost daily event with the latest coming today from Moody's.

What can we expect when the news on Greece is announced? Will the analogy with the Russian crisis end there with a "buy the news" response? Indeed, there is potentially a setup which allows for this. In many ways the news is already out and may be priced in; this is in sharp contrast to the surprise of IMF/World Bank intervention in the Russian affair.

On the other hand, the markets are quite overextended and in all probability the only element missing from a good shakeout is an excuse. A Greece default would provide one, however anticipated. Most of the recent rise appears to be late, public money "piling on" and of course such positions are generally shaken out before the real move commences.

My guess as to a likely scenario: an initial mini-panic on the news which drives the SPX to a partial decline within the Ascending Broadening Wedge formation--a bullish setup for an quick reversal and breakout to new highs. Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns estimates a 43% gain resulting from this setup. I would put a target of SPX 1150--the January high--on the partial decline. This would also retest the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the February low as well as the 50 EMA. A more serious correction would take the SPX down to the 200 EMA and the 23.6% level from the entire bull run at the 1080-1090 zone.

In summation, I would not expect the fallout from a Greek default to result in a major trend reversal or shorting opportunity. Rather, it will more likely set up a good buying opportunity. I'm in cash.

Epilogue:  Russia returned to the international debt market today for the first time since 1998 with the sale of $5.5 bln in bonds.

Generally these reports as well as twice weekly video reports are prepared for BullBear Trading Service members and then released to the general public on a time delayed basis.  To get immediate access just become a member.  It's easy and currently free of charge.

Disclosure: No current positions.

By Steve Vincent

http://www.thebullbear.com

The BullBear is the social network for market traders and investors.  Here you will find a wide range of tools to discuss, debate, blog, post, chat and otherwise communicate with others who share your interest in the markets.

© 2010 Copyright Steven Vincent - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules