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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Critical Juncture - Update on the Euro, Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen

Currencies / Euro May 27, 2010 - 07:21 AM GMT

By: Axel_Merk

Currencies

Our long-term outlook on the euro remains more positive than that of many market participants. There are numerous reasons for our view, amongst others because it is more difficult to print and spend money in the eurozone. Fiscal coordination is rapidly improving in the eurozone, addressing the euro area's key deficiencies. Since the announcement of the $1 trillion credit line less than 3 weeks ago, Spain, Portugal and Italy have all passed substantial fiscal consolidation measures. Germany is also seizing the opportunity, proposing to reform labor markets.


That said, the market is demanding more substantial changes that not only cut costs, but provide a catalyst for future growth. To achieve this, true reform of the labor markets is needed, including increasing the retirement age. Germany may be the leader in imposing austerity, but the country's bizarre approach to capital market reform is not inviting future investments.

Further, strains on the banking system in Europe are increasing. The largest Spanish banks are relatively strong, with the vast majority of their business outside of Spain (much of it in Brazil); however, their funding is also dependent on international markets – recently, BBVA, Spain's 2nd largest bank, appears to be shunned from U.S. commercial paper markets, possibly depriving the bank of a source where $1 billion in funding has previously come from. Central banks can provide assistance for funding shortfalls, but it highlights the fact that the Spanish government needs to be far more aggressive in cleaning up the banking sector; there needs to be an integrated approach to addressing the ills of the many small regional banks in Spain (cajas), not the sporadic government takeover of the occasional failed bank. As an important step, the Spanish prime minister has set a deadline for the end of June for the cajas to clean up balance sheets and ask for state money, if needed.

The achilles heel in Europe is the banking system: since the beginning of the crisis, European banks have been slow to raise capital and mark down investments. While the European Central Bank (ECB) can provide liquidity, the ECB cannot address solvency issues. Keeping zombie banks alive is not a good solution, but would be workable (likely leading to Japanese-style slow growth); however, this option is a precarious one when banks become too big to fail. Spain continues to issue debt at an increased rate, rewarding risk friendly investors with higher yields. However, in the absence of an integrated approach to resolving banking issues, even a country like Spain could get overwhelmed. If that happens, the bailout package prepared by eurozone finance ministers may well be called to the test; except that such a test will go beyond helping the weaker governments, and would need to provide direct assistance to the failing banks, raising the stakes and cost of any bailout.

All of this requires far more assertive leadership than we have seen to date. Our support for the euro is not unconditional. Having said that, during the month of April, with all the limelight on the euro, the worst performing currency versus the U.S. dollar was not the euro, but actually the Australian dollar. We have argued that while we like the Australian dollar (Australia's resource dependent economy is a prime beneficiary of global reflationary efforts), the challenge is that "everyone else" likes it too, thus making it more vulnerable in a downturn.

We expect another "shock and awe" response from Europe. Such a response should be beneficial to those currencies that have suffered the most this month; as a result, we have increased our Australian dollar position. With regard to the euro, we have now become more cautious. While we do not consider ourselves technicians, one has to respect the dynamics created by market forces; in any case, however, the Australian dollar is likely to react more violently to the upside then the euro if and when a recovery does happen.

Talking about market dynamics, the Japanese yen has been a focus of our attention lately. When we dropped the yen as a hard currency early this year (Jan 7: Yen no longer Hard Currency), we cited a government that has found its focus again, able to spend money and exert more pressure on the Bank of Japan. Little did we know how quickly this new government’s effectiveness and credibility would fizzle; in the absence of a strong government in Japan, market forces may play out once again, encouraging consumers to save more, which we consider to be a positive for the yen. With a less interventionist government, we may include the yen yet again in our hard currency strategy. That said, long-term, Japan may be required to access foreign markets to fund its deficit; this story will require constant monitoring and assessment.

By Axel Merk


Manager of the Merk Hard, Asian and Absolute Return Currency Funds, www.merkfunds.com

Axel Merk, President & CIO of Merk Investments, LLC, is an expert on hard money, macro trends and international investing. He is considered an authority on currencies. Axel Merk wrote the book on Sustainable Wealth; order your copy today.

The Merk Absolute Return Currency Fund seeks to generate positive absolute returns by investing in currencies. The Fund is a pure-play on currencies, aiming to profit regardless of the direction of the U.S. dollar or traditional asset classes.

The Merk Asian Currency Fund seeks to profit from a rise in Asian currencies versus the U.S. dollar. The Fund typically invests in a basket of Asian currencies that may include, but are not limited to, the currencies of China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.

The Merk Hard Currency Fund seeks to profit from a rise in hard currencies versus the U.S. dollar. Hard currencies are currencies backed by sound monetary policy; sound monetary policy focuses on price stability.

The Funds may be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with a currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in or profit from a secular bear market. For more information on the Funds and to download a prospectus, please visit www.merkfunds.com.

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses of the Merk Funds carefully before investing. This and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may be obtained by visiting the Funds' website at www.merkfunds.com or calling 866-MERK FUND. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest.

The Funds primarily invest in foreign currencies and as such, changes in currency exchange rates will affect the value of what the Funds own and the price of the Funds' shares. Investing in foreign instruments bears a greater risk than investing in domestic instruments for reasons such as volatility of currency exchange rates and, in some cases, limited geographic focus, political and economic instability, and relatively illiquid markets. The Funds are subject to interest rate risk which is the risk that debt securities in the Funds' portfolio will decline in value because of increases in market interest rates. The Funds may also invest in derivative securities which can be volatile and involve various types and degrees of risk. As a non-diversified fund, the Merk Hard Currency Fund will be subject to more investment risk and potential for volatility than a diversified fund because its portfolio may, at times, focus on a limited number of issuers. For a more complete discussion of these and other Fund risks please refer to the Funds' prospectuses.

This report was prepared by Merk Investments LLC, and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute investment advice. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.

Axel Merk Archive

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