Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.China Crash, Greece Collapse, Harbingers of Stock Market Apocalypse Forecast 2015? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Awaiting Outcome of Greece Crisis - Clive_Maund
3.Gold Price Peculiar 6 Month Cycles - Rambus_Chartology
4.Gold Price Just a Little Bit More - Bob_Loukas
5.8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble - EWI
6.Gold And Silver – Without Either, You Will Be Greeced - Michael_Noonan
7.Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - James_Quinn
8.China Crash, Greece Crisis Harbingers of Stocks Bear Market? Video - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold and Silver Record Shorting - Zeal_LLC
10.Markets Big Deflationary Downwave Quick Reference Guide... - Clive_Maund
Last 5 days
Gold’s Amazing Resiliency - 31st July 15
Silver – A Century of Prices - 31st July 15
Demand for Gold Bullion Surges – Perth Mint, and U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand - 31st July 15
Reasons Why the Greek Crisis Will Only Get Worse - 30th July 15
The War On Cash: Why Now? - 30th July 15
Greece - The IMF Experts Flunk, Again - 30th July 15
Threat Of Cyber Warfare the “Other Reason To Own Physical Gold” Warns Rickards - 30th July 15
The 5 Biggest Myths and Lies about the Middle East - 30th July 15
Greece, Diversion, and the New World Order - 30th July 15
Ibuprofen Warning - The Pain Killer that can Kill You! - 29th July 15
More Ritholtz on Gold, and Another Response - 29th July 15
Crude Oil Price Is Lower – and You’re Richer - 29th July 15
U.S. Home Sales Market Is Dead – This Chart Proves It - 29th July 15
Greece- What Happens When Economists Talk Politics - 29th July 15
The Gold - U.S. House Prices Ratio As A Valuation Indicator - 29th July 15
Will Crude Oil Price Decline Continue? -Video - 28th July 15
Gold & Silver Money Has Devolved Into Debt and Plastic - 28th July 15
Buy and "Own Gold Krugerrands" Says Money Expert Jim Grant, Very Bullish on Gold - 28th July 15
How to Protect Yourself from China's Crashing Stock Market - 28th July 15
Quantum Geopolitics - 28th July 15
Gold Mining Stocks to Weather the Storm - 28th July 15
Stock Market Bulls Beware! - 28th July 15
Will Chinese Stock Market Crash Affect the US? - 27th July 15
Crude Oil Price Under $48! - 27th July 15
Are We Seeing a Trend Reversal with U.S. Interest Rates? - 27th July 15
How to Know When the Gold Bear Market is Over - 27th July 15
Gold Bear Market Phase III - 27th July 15
Silver Bull Hammer Buy Signal - 27th July 15
Gold Cracks Support and Plunges to New Lows - How Low Will Price Go? - 27th July 15
Commodity Markets Breakdown Of 2015 Is Now A Fact - 26th July 15
Gold Price at a Five-Year Low: Here’s What to Do - 26th July 15
Stock Market Primary III Inflection Point - 26th July 15
Central Banks and Our Dysfunctional Gold Markets - 25th July 15
Gold And Silver - The US Dollar Does Not Exist, Part II - 25th July 15
How Wall Street Put Apple Stock in Animal House - 25th July 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Bubble in Trouble

Gold and Silver Bubble?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jul 22, 2010 - 02:46 PM GMT

By: John_Browne

Commodities

In the first few days of July, the prices of gold and silver appeared to break a five-month upward trend by drawing back about five per cent from the record June peaks. Despite many similar corrections that have occurred frequently during the long bull market in precious metals, pundits nevertheless looked to draw bold and significant conclusions from the drop. But just as investors were getting comfortable with the leading explanation - that a looming double dip recession will prevent inflation and thereby dampen demand for precious metals - the markets for both metals stabilized.


Most investors still credit the accepted orthodoxy that metals will only gain if inflation is widespread or a financial crisis encourages investors to seek safe havens. The failure of both metals to break below their upward trend lines, despite the lack of news on both fronts, should lay to rest these canards. Unfortunately, nothing appears more resilient than the belief in a gold bubble.

In my opinion, the current rise of precious metals is the direct result of the evident profligacy of governments the world over. Spendthrift politicians in Washington, London, and Tokyo, have caused people to lose faith in paper currencies. Investors, as well as an increasing number of lay citizens, understand that debts cannot be accumulated forever and that the most tempting solution will be to simply print more currency. The only alternative is an unpalatable tax hike that will only serve to reduce long-term revenue, as explained by the famed Laffer Curve.

This conflict will remain whether or not the CPI is currently spiking, and whether or not appetite for risk returns to the marketplace. So, until the political currents change or we face sovereign catastrophe, I believe gold and silver will be in a sustainable secular (long-term) bull market - not a bubble.

With the long term trend line of gold and silver still intact, but with current prices below their recent highs, many investors may be sensing buying opportunities. If so, which metal looks more attractive?

The price of gold and silver are typically influenced by several factors that do not affect prices for conventional commodities.

Gold holds the status of being the world's ultimate store of value. Neither governments nor wealthy individuals seem to be able to sleep soundly without some cache of the yellow metal. Gold is less used in the industry and its price less easily manipulated. Therefore, the big players in the precious metals markets, especially central banks, tend to invest portions of their vast holdings into gold.

Silver is generally the province of smaller investors. It is more accessible on a price-per-ounce basis, akin to the B-shares of Berkshire Hathaway. Silver has many industrial uses, giving it exposure to the commodity and monetary markets. This means the silver price tends to be more volatile and relatively less favored as a safe haven by the big players.

During the financial panic of 2008, the fortunes of gold and silver parted drastically. In that calendar year, when nearly every asset class fell dramatically, gold lost only 29% of its value from peak to trough. Silver, on the other hand, fell much harder - down 57%. But silver has bounced back harder. Since the trough, the price of silver is up 97%, as compared to 66% for gold. What's more, the price of silver is still below its 2008 high, while gold has been continually setting new records on a daily basis. Based on these technicals, it is likely that many investors may perceive value in silver.

Generally, the rule of thumb is that gold offers relative stability and silver offers greater upside (and downside). Therefore, the amount of additional risk an investor is willing to take will determine the gold/silver ratio in his portfolio. The other aspect is the ratio between physical metals and metal mining companies. The former are historically relatively safer, but don't generate revenues like owning stock in a miner can. Again, the allocation to each would be up to the individual investor. Each alternative represents a different way to access what I have argued is a secular bull market in precious metals.

I believe that more and more observers will recognize the nascent sovereign debt crisis as merely the precursor to a currency collapse. If I am correct, then investors will likely continue to pour into assets with intrinsic value, including precious metals. From my vantage point, the choice between gold and silver is of secondary concern. Investors should be more wary of clinging irrationally to an anachronistic US dollar regime.

New Special Report: Peter Schiff's Five Favorite Gold & Silver Mining Stocks. Click here to download.

By John Browne
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/

More importantly make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

John Browne is the Senior Market Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.  Mr. Brown is a distinguished former member of Britain's Parliament who served on the Treasury Select Committee, as Chairman of the Conservative Small Business Committee, and as a close associate of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Among his many notable assignments, John served as a principal advisor to Mrs. Thatcher's government on issues related to the Soviet Union, and was the first to convince Thatcher of the growing stature of then Agriculture Minister Mikhail Gorbachev. As a partial result of Brown's advocacy, Thatcher famously pronounced that Gorbachev was a man the West "could do business with."  A graduate of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Britain's version of West Point and retired British army major, John served as a pilot, parachutist, and communications specialist in the elite Grenadiers of the Royal Guard.

John_Browne Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History