Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - James_Quinn
3.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - Rambus_Chartology
6.Global Currency Reserve At Risk - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Gold and Silver: Your Stomach Is Probably Wrenching Right Now - The_Gold_Report
8.Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - Graham_Summers
9.Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - Rambus_Chartology
10.Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - Harry_Dent
Last 7 days
The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - 16th Aug 17
Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and Serbia, Camp Kotok 2017 - 16th Aug 17
U.S. Stock Market: Sunrise ... Sunset - 16th Aug 17
The Next Tech Crash Could Delay Your Retirement by a Decade - 15th Aug 17
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - 15th Aug 17
North Korea Showdown: Pivotal Market Turning Point - 15th Aug 17
Tech Stocks DOT COM Bubble Do-Over? - 14th Aug 17
Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - 14th Aug 17
From the Trans-Atlantic Axis and the Trans-Asian Axis - 14th Aug 17
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway - 14th Aug 17
The Islamic State Jihadi Pivot to Asia - 13th Aug 17
Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold - 13th Aug 17
North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - 12th Aug 17
Gold Stocks Coiled Spring - 12th Aug 17
Neil Howe: The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine the Future of Retail - 12th Aug 17
How to Alton Towers Half Price Discount Entry 2017 and 2018, Any Time, No Pre-Booking! - 12th Aug 17
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 2: Relative Strength Index (RSI) - 11th Aug 17
What Makes Women Better Investors - 11th Aug 17
Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August - 11th Aug 17
Influencer Marketing Predictions All Businesses Should Take Into Account - 11th Aug 17
Really Bad Ideas - Government Debt Isn’t Actually Debt - 10th Aug 17
Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat - 9th Aug 17
Why Is The Stock Market Not Trading On Fundamentals Lately? - 9th Aug 17
USD/CAD - Can We Trust This Breakout? - 9th Aug 17
New Monthly Rebate to Help Reduce Your Trading Costs - 9th Aug 17
Stock Market Divergences Are Now Appearing! - 9th Aug 17
Is Inflation an issue or did the Fed Mess Up? - 8th Aug 17
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 1: Japanese Candlesticks - 8th Aug 17
Researchers Find $10 Billion Hidden Treasure In A Dead Volcano - 8th Aug 17
What Happened to Thousands of Sheffield's Street Trees 2017 - Fellings Documentary - 8th Aug 17
Solar, Bubble, Banks, War, and Legal Tender: Five Reasons Why You Should Buy Silver Now - 7th Aug 17
CRASH - If Some People Do It, Nothing Bad Happens, But If Everyone Does It, All Hell Breaks Loose - 7th Aug 17
Gold and Silver : The Battle for Control - 7th Aug 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 7th Aug 17
Stock Market - Has Time Run Out? - 7th Aug 17
Get Ready for an Historic Upside Gold and Silver Run - 7th Aug 17
BOOM! Bitcoin Rockets To New All-Time High As Cryptocurrencies Surge Higher! - 7th Aug 17
U.S. Dollar: This Crash Signals the End - 6th Aug 17
Predicting The Price Of Gold Is A Fool’s Game - 6th Aug 17
Asda Sales Collapse and Profits Crash! UK Retailer Sector Crisis 2017 - 6th Aug 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

More Quantitative Easing Will Threaten the Dollar and Western Economies

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jul 30, 2010 - 12:34 PM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. economy can, at best, be described as in an "L"-shaped recovery. It is anemic, faced with unyieldingly high unemployment and overburdened with debt, but worst of all, the average consumer that has little to no confidence in the economy or housing for the next couple of years.


The Fed Chairman, Mr. Ben S. Bernanke tells us the future of the U.S. economy is "unusually uncertain", sapping confidence further. In such a climate a slight push to the negative will see the economy slip back into a recession. Like, 'depression', 'recession' has become an unacceptable word, because its use would drain confidence even more heavily. The housing market is already tipping into another negative slide with new house sales falling and mortgage rates at record lows. What can be done? We, like most other qualified commentators, free of political bias, see more quantitative easing as being unavoidable within three months, if the bad news continues. But this time, we have to ask, can it be managed without frightening side effects?

The U.S. Debt Crisis

Forty-eight U.S. states will be in deficit this year and the combined shortfall will probably exceed $300 billion. That puts Greece's expected 2010 budget shortfall of around $28 billion and the Eurozone crisis into perspective. Greece's shortfall is put at around 13.6% of G.D.P., whereas there are a good number of U.S. states anticipating deficits of more than 20% this year, including some, like California [that has already declared an emergency], New York, Florida and Illinois, with far bigger economies than Spain, Greece and Portugal lumped together. There are around a dozen U.S. states with bigger economies than Greece and most of these anticipate 2010 deficits at this kind of level! The result is going to have to be massive Federal Government bailouts in the midst of quantitative easing.

Deflation attacked by Inflation

The net effect is the threat of default and massive deflation. The word 'depression' will be heard if there is no, almost unlimited, quantitative easing. While such measures may stave off the worst economically, the impact on confidence will be remarkable, but not in a good way. We believe that the Fed and government will accept that inflation is the lesser of two evils and overall, will lessen the threat of deflation, recession and bad debts. When all else fails, and a crisis demands extreme measures, extreme measures and consequences will come. Look back at the early eighties after inflation had run towards 25%, Volker emasculated it with interest rates of 25% leading to the next 20+ years of boom times. Can't this be done again? [The author was working for Chase Manhatten at the time and pointed out that interest rates and inflation in terms of Technical forecasts pointed to this level a year before it happened. Senior management ridiculed the prospect at that time.]

Certainly, it will result in the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar both internally and externally. But the rescue of the U.S. economy will be the top priority of the Fed and the government, irrespective of external consequences.

Consequences

Inside the U.S. the current thriftiness of the consumer will turn to spending as he realizes that his savings are also being devalued, as is his debt. This will speed the velocity of money again as well as stimulate retail sales, inventory building, investment in capital goods and growth. Wonderful! Just what is wanted! Should inflation run amok, they always have the Volker solution. Such consequences will be seen as more than justifying the debilitation of the Dollar.

International Consequences

Outside the U.S. the scene will be different. Externally the Dollar will be devalued too.

Trade-dependent satellite nations will have to follow suit to keep exports at constant levels. Competitive devaluations of these currencies will become rampant. Even the Swiss Franc will devalue to keep in line with the Dollar [to keep international trade competitiveness], just as it did a couple of years ago, when it lowered interest rates for that reason.

Europe will be very unhappy to see the Euro hold value while the Dollar devalues and will attempt to follow suit. We do not believe any other currencies will be safe havens from U.S. Dollar devaluation. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see international cooperation to make currency devaluations act in synch.

But that's not the worst of it. Foreign surplus holders who form the backbone of U.S. Treasury Bills and Bond holders will be very unhappy with such devaluation after being castigated by the U.S. for holding their currencies down.

The Chinese have, in the past, sought reassurances that their holdings were safe from such devaluations. What recourse do they have? Very little, but they may simply not invest or acquire new Dollar holdings, thereafter. If that or part of that happens the Treasury markets will suffer badly. These nations will prefer to price their exports in other currencies. No matter what happens to exchange rates, the lowering of the demand for the Dollar from these sources will hit the U.S. very hard. After that rising interest rates alongside runaway inflation will be forced onto the U.S. public.

The real danger

But this is not where the real danger lies. It lies with the potential for runaway inflation and interest rates. The careful balancing act needed to manage such an environment may be too much for the Fed with its limited tools. If it acts too early to slow inflation, deflation resurges. If they act too late, inflation will be rocketing, so subsequent cooling of inflation will once again have a devastating effect on the economy, bringing much heavier deflation and an environment of mortally wounded confidence, back again. Letting these forces loose will catch the tiger by the tail and they may not be able to let go.

The consequences for gold in and outside the States
Subscribers only

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2009 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife