Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Will Deutsche Bank Crash The Global Stock Market? - Clif_Droke
3.Gold Price In Excess Of $8000 While US Dollar Collapses - Hubert_Moolman
4.BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Stocks Massive Price Correction - Zeal_LLC
6.Stock Market Predicts Donald Trump Victory - Austin_Galt
7.Next Financial Crisis Will be Far Worse than 2008/09 - Chris_Vermeulen
8.The Gold To Housing Ratio As A Valuation Indicator - Dan_Amerman
9.GDXJ Gold Stocks - A Diamond in the Rough - Rambus_Chartology
10.Gold Boom! End Game Nears As Central Banks Buying Up Gold Mining Companies! - Jeff_Berwick
Last 7 days
Gold’s Moving Averages and Long-Term Outlook - 26th Sept 16
September Stock Market - The Not So Silent Demise of Deutsche Bank - 26th Sept 16
SPX sell signal confirmed - 26th Sept 16
SPX is testing the next level of support - 26th Sept 16
Outrageously Entertaining US Presidential Campaign Final Stages - What Happens Next? - 26th Sept 16
BoJ, FOMC and Where To Now? - 26th Sept 16
Stock Market New All Time Highs Next - 26th Sept 16
Why Trump Will Win US General Election 2016 Prediction Forecast - 26th Sept 16
Martial Law Rolls Out Across the US As Jubilee Nears - 26th Sept 16
Stock Market More Correction Likely - 25th Sept 16
US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House - 25th Sept 16
US Economy GDP Growth Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% Q3, 1.22% Q4 - 24th Sept 16
Gold and Gold Stocks Corrective Action Continues Despite Dovish Federal Reserve - 24th Sept 16
Global Bonds: Why Our Analyst Says Things Just Got "Monumental" - 24th Sept 16
Where Did All the Money Go? - 23rd Sept 16
Pension Shortfalls Could Be 4X To 7X Greater Than Reported - 23rd Sept 16
Gold Unleashed by the Fed - 23rd Sept 16
Gold around U.S Presidential Elections - 23rd Sept 16
Here’s Why Eastern Europe Is Doomed - 23rd Sept 16
Nasdaq NDX 100 Big Cap Tech Breakout ? - 23rd Sept 16
The Implications of the Italian Banking Crisis Could Be Disastrous - 22nd Sept 16
TwinLakes Theme Park Summer Super 6 FREE Return Entry for Real? - 21st Sept 16
Has the Silver Bullet Run Out of Fire Power? - 21st Sept 16
Frack Sand: The Unsung Hero Of The OPEC Oil War - 21st Sept 16
What’s Happening With Gold? - 21st Sept 16
Gold vs. Stocks and Commodities, Pre-FOMC - 20th Sept 16
BrExit UK Inflation CPI, RPI Forecast 2016, 2017 - 20th Sept 16
European banks may be more important than the Fed this week - 20th Sept 16
Gold, Silver, Stocks and Bonds Grand Ascension or Great Collapse? - 20th Sept 16
Mass Psychology in Action; Instead of Selling Gilead it is Time to Take a Closer Look - 20th Sept 16
Hillary - Finally Well Deserved Recognition for Deplorables - 20th Sept 16
Fascist Business Model: Reich Economics - 19th Sept 16
Multiweek Correction in Gold and Silver Markets Continues - 19th Sept 16
Stock Market May Turn Ugly This Week - 19th Sept 16
China Is Digging Itself into a Deeper Hole - 19th Sept 16
Yellen’s Footnote 8 Would Put Interest Rates on Autopilot - 19th Sept 16
Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Revolution in Banking? - 19th Sept 16
UK Government Surrenders to China / France to Build Nuclear Fukushima Plant At Hinkley Point C - 19th Sept 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Power of the Wave Principle

More Quantitative Easing Will Threaten the Dollar and Western Economies

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jul 30, 2010 - 12:34 PM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. economy can, at best, be described as in an "L"-shaped recovery. It is anemic, faced with unyieldingly high unemployment and overburdened with debt, but worst of all, the average consumer that has little to no confidence in the economy or housing for the next couple of years.


The Fed Chairman, Mr. Ben S. Bernanke tells us the future of the U.S. economy is "unusually uncertain", sapping confidence further. In such a climate a slight push to the negative will see the economy slip back into a recession. Like, 'depression', 'recession' has become an unacceptable word, because its use would drain confidence even more heavily. The housing market is already tipping into another negative slide with new house sales falling and mortgage rates at record lows. What can be done? We, like most other qualified commentators, free of political bias, see more quantitative easing as being unavoidable within three months, if the bad news continues. But this time, we have to ask, can it be managed without frightening side effects?

The U.S. Debt Crisis

Forty-eight U.S. states will be in deficit this year and the combined shortfall will probably exceed $300 billion. That puts Greece's expected 2010 budget shortfall of around $28 billion and the Eurozone crisis into perspective. Greece's shortfall is put at around 13.6% of G.D.P., whereas there are a good number of U.S. states anticipating deficits of more than 20% this year, including some, like California [that has already declared an emergency], New York, Florida and Illinois, with far bigger economies than Spain, Greece and Portugal lumped together. There are around a dozen U.S. states with bigger economies than Greece and most of these anticipate 2010 deficits at this kind of level! The result is going to have to be massive Federal Government bailouts in the midst of quantitative easing.

Deflation attacked by Inflation

The net effect is the threat of default and massive deflation. The word 'depression' will be heard if there is no, almost unlimited, quantitative easing. While such measures may stave off the worst economically, the impact on confidence will be remarkable, but not in a good way. We believe that the Fed and government will accept that inflation is the lesser of two evils and overall, will lessen the threat of deflation, recession and bad debts. When all else fails, and a crisis demands extreme measures, extreme measures and consequences will come. Look back at the early eighties after inflation had run towards 25%, Volker emasculated it with interest rates of 25% leading to the next 20+ years of boom times. Can't this be done again? [The author was working for Chase Manhatten at the time and pointed out that interest rates and inflation in terms of Technical forecasts pointed to this level a year before it happened. Senior management ridiculed the prospect at that time.]

Certainly, it will result in the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar both internally and externally. But the rescue of the U.S. economy will be the top priority of the Fed and the government, irrespective of external consequences.

Consequences

Inside the U.S. the current thriftiness of the consumer will turn to spending as he realizes that his savings are also being devalued, as is his debt. This will speed the velocity of money again as well as stimulate retail sales, inventory building, investment in capital goods and growth. Wonderful! Just what is wanted! Should inflation run amok, they always have the Volker solution. Such consequences will be seen as more than justifying the debilitation of the Dollar.

International Consequences

Outside the U.S. the scene will be different. Externally the Dollar will be devalued too.

Trade-dependent satellite nations will have to follow suit to keep exports at constant levels. Competitive devaluations of these currencies will become rampant. Even the Swiss Franc will devalue to keep in line with the Dollar [to keep international trade competitiveness], just as it did a couple of years ago, when it lowered interest rates for that reason.

Europe will be very unhappy to see the Euro hold value while the Dollar devalues and will attempt to follow suit. We do not believe any other currencies will be safe havens from U.S. Dollar devaluation. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see international cooperation to make currency devaluations act in synch.

But that's not the worst of it. Foreign surplus holders who form the backbone of U.S. Treasury Bills and Bond holders will be very unhappy with such devaluation after being castigated by the U.S. for holding their currencies down.

The Chinese have, in the past, sought reassurances that their holdings were safe from such devaluations. What recourse do they have? Very little, but they may simply not invest or acquire new Dollar holdings, thereafter. If that or part of that happens the Treasury markets will suffer badly. These nations will prefer to price their exports in other currencies. No matter what happens to exchange rates, the lowering of the demand for the Dollar from these sources will hit the U.S. very hard. After that rising interest rates alongside runaway inflation will be forced onto the U.S. public.

The real danger

But this is not where the real danger lies. It lies with the potential for runaway inflation and interest rates. The careful balancing act needed to manage such an environment may be too much for the Fed with its limited tools. If it acts too early to slow inflation, deflation resurges. If they act too late, inflation will be rocketing, so subsequent cooling of inflation will once again have a devastating effect on the economy, bringing much heavier deflation and an environment of mortally wounded confidence, back again. Letting these forces loose will catch the tiger by the tail and they may not be able to let go.

The consequences for gold in and outside the States
Subscribers only

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2009 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife