Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Dow Trend Forecast into End January 2015 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver Stocks Apocalypse Now, Bear Market Review - Rambus_Chartology
3.NHS Baldrick Plan to Spread Ebola Across UK - Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, London Hospitals - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Ebola Terror Threat Suicide Bio-Weapons Threatens Multiple 9/11's, Global Plague - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Second-Richest Man Says Mortgages Now a "No Brainer" - Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
6.Gold And Silver Still No End In Sight - Michael_Noonan
7.NHS Baldrick Plan to Spread Ebola Across UK - Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, London Hospitals - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Gold Bug is Set to Bite Back - EWI
9.How Alibaba Could Capitalize on the EBay-PayPal Split - Frank_Holmes
10.The Consequences of the Economic Peace - John_Mauldin
Last 5 days
How Will We Know That the Gold & Silver Price Bottom Is In? - 21st Oct 14
Is Gold as Dead as Florida Hurricanes? - 21st Oct 14
First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side In Lead At 45% - 21st Oct 14
The Similarities Between Germany and China - 21st Oct 14
The REAL Reason Why the Stock Market Turned Down - 21st Oct 14
Petrobras is a 'Scheme, Not a Stock' - 21st Oct 14
Stocks Bear Market Indicator Is Off the Mark - 20th Oct 14
Stock Market Ideal Turning Point is at Hand - 20th Oct 14
Investors Quit Complaining, The Environment is Perfect Right Now - 20th Oct 14
Ebola Armageddon Could Trigger a Rebirth in Gold and Silver Prices - 20th Oct 14
Gold vs Euro Risk Due To Possible Return of Italian Lira - Drachmas, Escudos, Pesetas and Punts? - 20th Oct 14
Stocks Rebounded Following Recent Sell-Off, But Will It Last? - 20th Oct 14
U.S. Responsible for West Africa Ebola Outbreak Says Liberian Scientist - 20th Oct 14
Stock Market Intermediate B Wave has Started - 20th Oct 14
Gold Stocks Analysis – FNV, CG, NCM, SBM - 19th Oct 14
Stock Market Primary IV Wave Counter Trend Rally - 19th Oct 14
Gold And Silver - Financial World: House Of Cards Built On Sand - 18th Oct 14
Anatomy of a Stock Market Sell-Off - 18th Oct 14
Why OPEC Has Declared an Oil War on Russia - 18th Oct 14
Gold and Silver Extreme Shorting Peaks - 18th Oct 14
Bitcoin Price Fall to $350? - 18th Oct 14
Tesco Supermarket Crisis Worse To Come as Customers Vanish! - 18th Oct 14
Sheffield Roma Crisis School Place Application's Fraud Perfect Storm - 17th Oct 14
Stock Markets, Commodities and Indicators - 17th Oct 14
“Save Our Swiss Gold ” - Game Changer For Gold? - 17th Oct 14
How to Trade the Ebola Stock Market Sell-Off - 17th Oct 14
When... Not if... Crude Oil Price Drops Below $70 - 17th Oct 14
Either You're The Butcher or You're The Cattle - 17th Oct 14
Gold Benefits from Market Uncertainty - 17th Oct 14
Stock Market Pullback Underway, Euro downside, Commodities - 17th Oct 14
Stock Market Seven Year Cycle and A Correction Ahead? - 17th Oct 14
Three Ways to Play Uranium: Top Stock Picks - 17th Oct 14
America Flirts With Deflation - 17th Oct 14
Why the Fed Should Consider Delaying the End of QE - 16th Oct 14
Gold Prices Since 9-11 - 16th Oct 14
The Inflation Imputation, Dear Saver, May You RIP - 16th Oct 14
Flight To Safety - Gold Rises As Stocks, European Bonds Sink - 16th Oct 14
The March Of History And The End Of Nations - 16th Oct 14
Stocks Bear Markets Move Fast and Are Intensely Emotional - 16th Oct 14
Stocks Got Their Piece – Now It’s Our Turn - 16th Oct 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stocks Epic Bear Market

More Quantitative Easing Will Threaten the Dollar and Western Economies

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jul 30, 2010 - 12:34 PM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. economy can, at best, be described as in an "L"-shaped recovery. It is anemic, faced with unyieldingly high unemployment and overburdened with debt, but worst of all, the average consumer that has little to no confidence in the economy or housing for the next couple of years.


The Fed Chairman, Mr. Ben S. Bernanke tells us the future of the U.S. economy is "unusually uncertain", sapping confidence further. In such a climate a slight push to the negative will see the economy slip back into a recession. Like, 'depression', 'recession' has become an unacceptable word, because its use would drain confidence even more heavily. The housing market is already tipping into another negative slide with new house sales falling and mortgage rates at record lows. What can be done? We, like most other qualified commentators, free of political bias, see more quantitative easing as being unavoidable within three months, if the bad news continues. But this time, we have to ask, can it be managed without frightening side effects?

The U.S. Debt Crisis

Forty-eight U.S. states will be in deficit this year and the combined shortfall will probably exceed $300 billion. That puts Greece's expected 2010 budget shortfall of around $28 billion and the Eurozone crisis into perspective. Greece's shortfall is put at around 13.6% of G.D.P., whereas there are a good number of U.S. states anticipating deficits of more than 20% this year, including some, like California [that has already declared an emergency], New York, Florida and Illinois, with far bigger economies than Spain, Greece and Portugal lumped together. There are around a dozen U.S. states with bigger economies than Greece and most of these anticipate 2010 deficits at this kind of level! The result is going to have to be massive Federal Government bailouts in the midst of quantitative easing.

Deflation attacked by Inflation

The net effect is the threat of default and massive deflation. The word 'depression' will be heard if there is no, almost unlimited, quantitative easing. While such measures may stave off the worst economically, the impact on confidence will be remarkable, but not in a good way. We believe that the Fed and government will accept that inflation is the lesser of two evils and overall, will lessen the threat of deflation, recession and bad debts. When all else fails, and a crisis demands extreme measures, extreme measures and consequences will come. Look back at the early eighties after inflation had run towards 25%, Volker emasculated it with interest rates of 25% leading to the next 20+ years of boom times. Can't this be done again? [The author was working for Chase Manhatten at the time and pointed out that interest rates and inflation in terms of Technical forecasts pointed to this level a year before it happened. Senior management ridiculed the prospect at that time.]

Certainly, it will result in the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar both internally and externally. But the rescue of the U.S. economy will be the top priority of the Fed and the government, irrespective of external consequences.

Consequences

Inside the U.S. the current thriftiness of the consumer will turn to spending as he realizes that his savings are also being devalued, as is his debt. This will speed the velocity of money again as well as stimulate retail sales, inventory building, investment in capital goods and growth. Wonderful! Just what is wanted! Should inflation run amok, they always have the Volker solution. Such consequences will be seen as more than justifying the debilitation of the Dollar.

International Consequences

Outside the U.S. the scene will be different. Externally the Dollar will be devalued too.

Trade-dependent satellite nations will have to follow suit to keep exports at constant levels. Competitive devaluations of these currencies will become rampant. Even the Swiss Franc will devalue to keep in line with the Dollar [to keep international trade competitiveness], just as it did a couple of years ago, when it lowered interest rates for that reason.

Europe will be very unhappy to see the Euro hold value while the Dollar devalues and will attempt to follow suit. We do not believe any other currencies will be safe havens from U.S. Dollar devaluation. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see international cooperation to make currency devaluations act in synch.

But that's not the worst of it. Foreign surplus holders who form the backbone of U.S. Treasury Bills and Bond holders will be very unhappy with such devaluation after being castigated by the U.S. for holding their currencies down.

The Chinese have, in the past, sought reassurances that their holdings were safe from such devaluations. What recourse do they have? Very little, but they may simply not invest or acquire new Dollar holdings, thereafter. If that or part of that happens the Treasury markets will suffer badly. These nations will prefer to price their exports in other currencies. No matter what happens to exchange rates, the lowering of the demand for the Dollar from these sources will hit the U.S. very hard. After that rising interest rates alongside runaway inflation will be forced onto the U.S. public.

The real danger

But this is not where the real danger lies. It lies with the potential for runaway inflation and interest rates. The careful balancing act needed to manage such an environment may be too much for the Fed with its limited tools. If it acts too early to slow inflation, deflation resurges. If they act too late, inflation will be rocketing, so subsequent cooling of inflation will once again have a devastating effect on the economy, bringing much heavier deflation and an environment of mortally wounded confidence, back again. Letting these forces loose will catch the tiger by the tail and they may not be able to let go.

The consequences for gold in and outside the States
Subscribers only

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2009 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014