Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.China Crash, Greece Collapse, Harbingers of Stock Market Apocalypse Forecast 2015? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Awaiting Outcome of Greece Crisis - Clive_Maund
3.Gold Price Peculiar 6 Month Cycles - Rambus_Chartology
4.Gold Price Just a Little Bit More - Bob_Loukas
5.8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble - EWI
6.Gold And Silver – Without Either, You Will Be Greeced - Michael_Noonan
7.Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - James_Quinn
8.China Crash, Greece Crisis Harbingers of Stocks Bear Market? Video - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold and Silver Record Shorting - Zeal_LLC
10.Markets Big Deflationary Downwave Quick Reference Guide... - Clive_Maund
Last 5 days
Stock Market SPX Triggers Sell Signal - 3rd Aug 15
The Gold Investment Demand Juggernaut - 3rd Aug 15
Stock Market Pullback at Hand, Gold About to Rally? - 3rd Aug 15
Gold – The More Hate, The More Bullish We Become - 3rd Aug 15
Stock Market Critical Week Ahead - 3rd Aug 15
Gold Price Near Intermediate Bottom - 3rd Aug 15
Stock Market Reluctant Primary Wave IV? - 2nd Aug 15
Power and Compassion - 2nd Aug 15
Preparing for The Stock Market Crash - Inverse ETFs and Puts Timing... - 2nd Aug 15
Commodity Prices Slump Signals Slow Economic Growth Outlook - 2nd Aug 15
BSE Sensex Stocks Bear Market Underway - 2nd Aug 15
What Microsoft’s Dismal Earnings Report Really Tells You - 2nd Aug 15
Gold And Silver Charts Are The Compelling Story. Fundamentals Do Not Apply - 2nd Aug 15
The Fed Can't Stop the Commodity Bear Market - 1st Aug 15
Meet the Leader Who Turned Google Into a “Buy” - 1st Aug 15
The Greek Coup: Liquidity as a Weapon of Coercion - 1st Aug 15
Gold’s Amazing Resiliency - 31st July 15
Silver – A Century of Prices - 31st July 15
Demand for Gold Bullion Surges – Perth Mint, and U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand - 31st July 15
Reasons Why the Greek Crisis Will Only Get Worse - 30th July 15
The War On Cash: Why Now? - 30th July 15
Greece - The IMF Experts Flunk, Again - 30th July 15
Threat Of Cyber Warfare the “Other Reason To Own Physical Gold” Warns Rickards - 30th July 15
The 5 Biggest Myths and Lies about the Middle East - 30th July 15
Greece, Diversion, and the New World Order - 30th July 15
Ibuprofen Warning - The Pain Killer that can Kill You! - 29th July 15
More Ritholtz on Gold, and Another Response - 29th July 15
Crude Oil Price Is Lower – and You’re Richer - 29th July 15
U.S. Home Sales Market Is Dead – This Chart Proves It - 29th July 15
Greece- What Happens When Economists Talk Politics - 29th July 15
The Gold - U.S. House Prices Ratio As A Valuation Indicator - 29th July 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Bubble in Trouble

The Mainstream Financial Media Wants to Brainwash and Bankrupt You

Politics / Mainstream Media Dec 09, 2010 - 01:31 PM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDan Ferris writes: The financial news media is conspiring to blow up your brokerage account and flush your retirement savings down Ben Bernanke's new commode.

I'm not saying the editors of top financial newspapers and magazines sat down together and hashed out a plan to brainwash you and bankrupt you. No, I really don't think they did that. It only looks like they did it...


The conspirator I'd like to focus on today is Barron's, one of the most well-respected publications in the industry. By the look of it, you'd think it made a bet that it could nail the best "cover story sell signal"...

The cover story sell signal is one of the best contrarian indicators around. Whenever a trend is deeply ingrained enough in the public mind to sell magazines off the newsstand, you know it's about to end.

For example, in March 1999, oil was around $15-$16 a barrel. The cover of The Economist showed a picture of two oil workers covered in the stuff, with the headline, "Drowning in Oil," implying weaker oil prices. That was the beginning of the massive bull run that eventually took oil to $147 a barrel in 2008. Another famous example is from BusinessWeek. In August 1979, the cover said, "The Death of Equities." Stocks bottomed in the second quarter of 1980, retested the bottom in 1982, and took off on the biggest bull market in history.

These days, you'll find the most irresponsibly ostrich-like, head-in-sand attitude on the cover of the November 29 issue of Barron's...

It shows a retiree lounging with a cocktail next to a waterfall of money. The headline promises, "How to keep the income flowing." The article inside is called "Going with the flow."

That doesn't sound very contrarian to me... It's essentially an invitation to throw caution to the wind and take on more overpriced risk. And the Barron's story is recommending a whole slew of risky investments...

Among the high-risk offerings touted by Barron's: emerging market debt, foreign government bonds, high-yield corporate bonds, Build America Bonds (subsidies for municipal bond issuers), senior bank loans, MLPs, dividend-paying stocks (well, that one's a pretty good idea, actually), variable annuities, and the one that's been going straight to hell faster than the rest of them lately, municipal bonds.

It's as though someone at Barron's sat down and decided to make a list of the riskiest stuff you could buy right now. Income – especially fixed income – is clearly a bubble. That Barron's is trying to sell this list of fixed-income and near-fixed-income investments as a retirement-worthy portfolio seems more irresponsible than usual.

It even tells retirees to take more risk, saying, "Generating a rich stream of post-retirement income these days requires investments that retirees once might have shunned."

Adding particular insult to injury, a smaller headline on the left-hand margin of Barron's November 29 cover says, "REITs have the right stuff."

I guess as long as you ignore the cacophonous crashing sound coming from the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market, the equity in commercial real estate looks positively peachy. In particular, the delinquency rates on mortgage-backed securities secured by apartment buildings spiked more than 100 basis points in November, to 15.8%. That's from the same report by CMBS tracker Trepp that says the overall CMBS delinquency rate rose to 8.93%, up 35 basis points from October.

The loans underlying U.S. commercial real estate are blowing up at higher rates. But Barron's thinks the equity slice, the riskiest piece of the pie, is somehow appropriate for retirees.

Let me tell you something: If the bond holders aren't getting paid, the equity holders can throw their tickets in the trash, have a smoke and a pancake, and resign themselves to getting crushed.

And like every other kind of yield, REIT yields have compressed like prosciutto under a Sumo wrestler. The U.S. Real Estate Index dividend yield has fallen from 11.19% in February 2009 to less than 4.6% today. For taking on all kinds of risk, you're paid just a little more than 30-year Treasurys.

That's a bad deal. And you should turn up your nose.

Barron's and the rest of the financial news industry is a shameless tout machine, by all appearances in the direct employ of Wall Street, the Fed, and anybody who's already got a ton of money. It's forgotten how to say, "Inflation is bad for business, and what's bad for business is bad for stocks. Sell fairly valued stocks. Hold cash. Buy only when valuations are dirt cheap and business quality is stellar."

See, that wasn't hard. Sure, subscriptions to my newsletter, Extreme Value, won't fly off the shelf with that kind of advice. But at least we'll all sleep soundly, knowing we understand exactly what the heck is going on.

Good investing,

Dan
Editor's note: Dan Ferris is the editor of Extreme Value, which boasts one of the most impressive track records in the business. Over the past six months, Dan has closed out winners for 249%, 248%, and 104% gains. And he has four more triple-digit winners in his open portfolio. To learn more about Extreme Value – and get immediate access to Dan's latest research – click here.

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2010 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History