Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.China Crash, Greece Collapse, Harbingers of Stock Market Apocalypse Forecast 2015? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Awaiting Outcome of Greece Crisis - Clive_Maund
3.Gold Price Peculiar 6 Month Cycles - Rambus_Chartology
4.Gold Price Just a Little Bit More - Bob_Loukas
5.8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble - EWI
6.Gold And Silver – Without Either, You Will Be Greeced - Michael_Noonan
7.Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - James_Quinn
8.China Crash, Greece Crisis Harbingers of Stocks Bear Market? Video - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold and Silver Record Shorting - Zeal_LLC
10.Markets Big Deflationary Downwave Quick Reference Guide... - Clive_Maund
Last 5 days
Reasons Why the Greek Crisis Will Only Get Worse - 30th July 15
The War On Cash: Why Now? - 30th July 15
Greece - The IMF Experts Flunk, Again - 30th July 15
Threat Of Cyber Warfare the “Other Reason To Own Physical Gold” Warns Rickards - 30th July 15
The 5 Biggest Myths and Lies about the Middle East - 30th July 15
Greece, Diversion, and the New World Order - 30th July 15
Ibuprofen Warning - The Pain Killer that can Kill You! - 29th July 15
More Ritholtz on Gold, and Another Response - 29th July 15
Crude Oil Price Is Lower – and You’re Richer - 29th July 15
U.S. Home Sales Market Is Dead – This Chart Proves It - 29th July 15
Greece- What Happens When Economists Talk Politics - 29th July 15
The Gold - U.S. House Prices Ratio As A Valuation Indicator - 29th July 15
Will Crude Oil Price Decline Continue? -Video - 28th July 15
Gold & Silver Money Has Devolved Into Debt and Plastic - 28th July 15
Buy and "Own Gold Krugerrands" Says Money Expert Jim Grant, Very Bullish on Gold - 28th July 15
How to Protect Yourself from China's Crashing Stock Market - 28th July 15
Quantum Geopolitics - 28th July 15
Gold Mining Stocks to Weather the Storm - 28th July 15
Stock Market Bulls Beware! - 28th July 15
Will Chinese Stock Market Crash Affect the US? - 27th July 15
Crude Oil Price Under $48! - 27th July 15
Are We Seeing a Trend Reversal with U.S. Interest Rates? - 27th July 15
How to Know When the Gold Bear Market is Over - 27th July 15
Gold Bear Market Phase III - 27th July 15
Silver Bull Hammer Buy Signal - 27th July 15
Gold Cracks Support and Plunges to New Lows - How Low Will Price Go? - 27th July 15
Commodity Markets Breakdown Of 2015 Is Now A Fact - 26th July 15
Gold Price at a Five-Year Low: Here’s What to Do - 26th July 15
Stock Market Primary III Inflection Point - 26th July 15
Central Banks and Our Dysfunctional Gold Markets - 25th July 15
Gold And Silver - The US Dollar Does Not Exist, Part II - 25th July 15
How Wall Street Put Apple Stock in Animal House - 25th July 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Bubble in Trouble

Barron’s Gold Mining Index To Double Over The Next Couple Of Years?

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Mar 15, 2012 - 07:57 AM GMT

By: Hubert_Moolman

Commodities

The behaviour of gold stocks during this gold bull market is really not that different to the gold bull market of the 70s. It was not until almost the end of the bull market (in 1979) that the gold stocks really started to take-off. Those who think gold stocks will not rise during this bull market will be disappointed, and need to consider the evidence presented here.


Below, is a long term chart (from sharelynx.com) for the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI):

On the chart, I have highlighted two fractals (or patterns), marked 1 to 6, which appear similar. What makes these two fractals so special is the similarity of the circumstances in which they exist.

Both patterns started where the Dow/Gold ratio peaked, as well as where the gold bull markets started.

There was a significant peak in the Dow (1973 and 2007) between point 1 and 2 of both fractals. Both peaks in the Dow came about 7 years after the peak in the Dow/Gold ratio. After point 2, on both fractals, the oil price made a significant peak (1974 and 2008), about 8 years after the peak in the Dow/Gold ratio.

Based on the fractals on the chart, we could still have more than two years before we could get a top in the BGMI, like we had at the end of 1980. That is more than 14 years after the Dow/Gold ratio top (beginning of 1966 to the end of1980 vs the end of 1999 to some time in 2014).

If you compare the two patterns, then it seems we are currently just past point 6, which is similar to the beginning of 1979. The correction since the beginning of 2011 is in the closing stages, and price should advance significantly over the next couple of years. If the patterns continue their similarity, then we should expect the BGMI to reach levels more than double its current peak.

In a previous article, I have illustrated why current levels could be a good time to buy gold stocks (HUI).

For more detailed analysis of gold, silver and the Dow, you are welcome to subscribe to my free or premium service.

Warm regards and God bless,

Hubert

http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

© 2012 Copyright Hubert Moolman - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History