Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.How U.S. Dollar Destruction Threatens the Global Economy - Steve Forbes
2.Why UK House Prices Will Continue Rising - 'It's Immigration Stupid' - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin Price at Beginning of a Move up? - Mike_McAra
4.Gold Price to Plunge, Visiting Fort Knox - David_Hague
5.Silver Price Forecast - Metal to Gain Ground in August on These Factors - Jim Bach
6.Gold And Silver Will Rise With US Dollar Demise, Just Not Soon - Michael_Noonan
7.Bitcoin Price Strong Move Possible - Mike_McAra
8.Israel Gaza War Crimes - Soldier's Ordered to Shoot Civilians Including Children - C4News - C4News
9.UK House Prices Crash Warning - Daily Mail Cognitive Dissonance - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK House Prices Boom - Top Quick Cheap Tips to Help Sell Your Home - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
President Obama Strongest Statement Yet on Israel Gaza War - 20th Aug 14
Peak Gold? Russia To Surpass Australia As World No 2 Gold Producer - 20th Aug 14
AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs - 20th Aug 14
Stock Market Investors What's Your Exit? - 20th Aug 14
The Gold War - Thinker, Trader, Holder, Why? - 20th Aug 14
Ukraine Interest Rates Soars to 17.5% As External Debt Cannot be Repaid - 20th Aug 14
Rising Interest Rates and The End of Stimuland - 20th Aug 14
Inflation Watch: $245,000 to Raise a Child in United States - 20th Aug 14
Inside the Stunning Deal That Put Apple and IBM on the Same Side - 20th Aug 14
The US Gold in Fort Knox is Secure, Gone, or Irrelevant? - 19th Aug 14
Bitcoin Price On The Brink of a Possible Reversal - 19th Aug 14
Why Tesla Stock Price Will Double in the Next 12 Months - 19th Aug 14
Europe's Economic Malaise: The New Normal? - 19th Aug 14
The Coming U.S. Economic Collapse Will Trigger a Revolution - 19th Aug 14
Market Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere - 19th Aug 14
This is Your Economic Recovery With and Without Drugs - 19th Aug 14
Stock Market Strong Start to Jackson Hole Week - 19th Aug 14
Iraq, Ukraine - Oh, What A Tangled Mess We Weave - 19th Aug 14
How to Apply Moving Averages as a Trading Tool - Video - 18th Aug 14
Why Short Stock Traders Are Losing Money This Week - 18th Aug 14
Stock Market Rally May be Complete - 18th Aug 14
Why Chinese Citizens Invest In Gold - 18th Aug 14
Palladium Reaches 13-Year High Over $900 oz as Gold Trading Volumes Surge 66% - 18th Aug 14
Understand and Profit from Surging European Volatility - 18th Aug 14
No Escape from The Dollar as The Currency Standard - 18th Aug 14
Stock Market New Highs Less Certain - 18th Aug 14
German Stock Market DAX About To Drop - 18th Aug 14
Stay on Board - Stock Market Big Picture - 18th Aug 14
Europe Economy Is Tanking, QE Is Coming - 18th Aug 14
Are You Ready for The Greatest Technology Revolution Yet? - 17th Aug 14
Why King Coal is Bigger than Oil or Gas - 17th Aug 14
U.S. Empire of Death and Lies - 17th Aug 14
Ukraine - Whose Spin Are We Caught Up In Here? - 17th Aug 14
Time Decay And No Escape For Abenomics - 17th Aug 14
India BSE SENSEX The Party Is Over In Bombay - 17th Aug 14
Stock Market Uptrend Looks Underway - 17th Aug 14
The Key Role Of Conspiracy Theory In Dumbing Down Society - 17th Aug 14
The Federal Reserve in Denial Mode - Bond Market Explained - 17th Aug 14
Stock Market Ukraine-Triggered Volatility, But a Flat Finish - 16th Aug 14
Stock Market Investors Conditioned To Catch The Falling Knife - 16th Aug 14
Decline And Fall Of The CO2 Crisis - 16th Aug 14
Gold Stocks Major New Upleg - 15th Aug 14
Don’t Assume What Is “Unseen” Doesn’t Exist - 15th Aug 14
HUI, Gold and Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts - 15th Aug 14
Cry for Argentina: Fiscal Mismanagement or Pillage? - 15th Aug 14
New 'LBMA Silver Price' - Still Not Transparent - 15th Aug 14
America the Neighborhood Bully Recklessly Throws its Weight Around - 15th Aug 14
The Single Best Investment for the Semiconductor Tek Stock Boom - 15th Aug 14
The Something For Nothing Society - Inflation and Getting Paid NOT to Work - 15th Aug 14
Forecasting Ability of the Elliott Wave Principle - Trader Education - 15th Aug 14
The Most Hated Stocks Bull Market - 15th Aug 14 - Puru_Saxena
America's First Oil Sands Producer and Other Natural Resources Surprises - 15th Aug 14
Life and Times in Propagandistan - 15th Aug 14
The Biggest Lesson from Microsoft’s Recent Battle with the US Government - 15th Aug 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Biggest lie in Stock Market History Revealed

Stock Market SPX Uptrend Extends

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Mar 18, 2012 - 04:00 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA good performance by US and European markets as the US broke through resistance at SPX 1378 and rallied to 1406 on friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.40%, and the NDX/NAX were +2.35%. Asian markets gained 0.8%, European markets gained 2.9%, and the DJ World index gained 1.9%. Economic indicators for the week were solidly to the upside. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, export prices, the NY and Philly FED, the CPI/PPI, capacity utilization, and the weekly jobless claims plus the WLEI improved. On the downtick: the budget deficit expanded, while import prices and consumer sentiment declined. Overall it was quite a positive week for stocks and the economy. Next week we get an update on the Housing market and Leading indicators.


LONG TERM: bull market

While our economic indicators remain below neutral, the economy continues to improve and the bull market continues to make new highs. Our weekly technical indicators are starting to hit extreme overbought levels, as the RSI is nearly 91 and the MACD is over 38. This kind of technical activity only occurs in bull markets.

The count from the Mar09 SPX 667 low remains the same. This bull market is unfolding in five Primary waves to complete a Cycle wave [1] of the next Supercycle bull market. Primary waves I and II completed at SPX 1371 and 1075 respectively in 2011. Primary wave III is underway now. Within Primary wave I we had five Major waves with a detailed Major wave 1. Within Primary III we have most likely completed Major waves 1 and 2, and are in Major wave 3 now. Before this bull market ends, likely in 2013, we still need Major waves 4 and 5 to complete for Primary III, and then, Primary waves IV and V. It would appear this market has a long way to go, in wave structure, before completing it bull market. As for price, we continue to target the SPX 1545-1586 range by 2013.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1406

Despite recent downtrend confirmations by 10 of the 20 international indices we track, the major US indices broke out to new highs this week carrying many international indices with them. Our latest tally now displays only 4 of the 20 international indices remain in confirmed downtrends. When this uptrend began in November at SPX 1159 we were expecting it to run into resistance between the OEW 1291-1313 pivot zone. It did, and took about one month to clear that area. Then we expected resistance between the OEW 1363-1386 resistance zone. Again the market stalled for about one month in this area, but broke out this week to move over SPX 1400. Now there is a large gap to the next resistance at the OEW 1440 pivot, and then another gap to the OEW 1499 pivot.

Also, at the beginning of this uptrend we expected a conservative three month rise and were labeling it as Intermediate wave one of Major wave 3. Now it appears, with the extension into its fourth month, and the rise above SPX 1400, this uptrend may be all of Major wave 3. We have been carrying this count, as an alternate, on the DOW charts. We have now decided to make Major wave 3 the preferred count, and the Intermediate wave one count the alternate. The counts on the SPX and DOW charts have been updated to reflect this change.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with overhead resistance at SPX 1407, then the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum is declining from a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1365 with support at the 1386 pivot.

With the extension of the uptrend into its fourth month, and into the SPX 1400′s, we are likely dealing with a Major wave 3 uptrend now. The short term charts have been updated to reflect this change. The short term count is now as follows: Int. one SPX 1267, Int. two SPX 1202, Int. three SPX 1378, Int. four SPX 1340, and Int. five underway. Within Int. wave five we are currently counting the rally from SPX 1340 as Minor wave 1. The first level of fibonacci/pivot resistance is at SPX 1407: Int. v = 0.618 Int. 1. The next level is at the OEW 1440 pivot, and SPX 1448: Int. v = Int. i and 0.618 Int. iii. The last level is at the OEW 1499 pivot, and SPX 1516: Int. v = 1.618 Int. i and Int. iii. Since we are expecting this uptrend to continue into May the most obvious targets would be the OEW 1440 pivot, then the 1499 pivot. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net gain of 0.8%. Australia and India remain in downtrends.

The European markets were all higher on the week for a gain of 2.9%. Spain remains in a downtrend.

The Commodity equity group were mixed on the week for a net gain of 1.8%. Canada remains in a downtrend.

The DJ World index remains uptrending and gained 1.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continued their downtrend losing 1.6% on the week.

Crude remains volatile, is still uptrending, and lost 0.3% on the week.

Gold remains in a downtrend losing 3.3% on the week.

The USD is uptrending, but lost 0.3% on the week. The EUR is downtrending, but gained 0.4%. The JPY remains in a downtrend losing 1.2% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Housing is the primary focus of this weeks economic reports. On monday at 10:00 the NAHB sentiment will be released. On tuesday, Housing starts and Building permits. Wednesday we have Existing home sales. Then thursday weekly Jobless claims, the FHFA housing index, and Leading indicators. On friday, New home sales. The FED has a busy week. On monday at 9:30, FED director Killian testifies before congress on foreclosures and the housing market. On tuesday, FED chairman Bernanke starts his four part lecture on the financial crisis. On thursday, FED governor Tarullo testifies before the senate on regulatory reform, and FED chairman Bernanke gives his second lecture. Then on friday, FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech at the Wash. DC FED. Best to your week.

Stockcharts has made some significant changes to its public charts list. They require each member to resubmit their public charts list, with an initial limit of 100 charts. Since we currently have 228 charts posted, we will need to review the list and post what we feel are the only most important charts for now. Please bare with us as we make these changes. Sorry for the inconvenience. The new link is posted below.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2012 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014