Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2017 Seats Final Forecast, Labour, Conservative Lib-Dem, SNP - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK General Election 2017 Forecast: Conservative 358, Labour 212 Seats - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Conservative Seats Result - Nadeem_Walayat
6.The Stock Market Crash of 2017 That Never Was But Could it Still Come to Pass? - Sol_Palha
7.[TRADE ALERT] Write This Gold Stock Ticker Down Now - WallStreetNation
8.UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Orphaned Poisoned Waters,Severe Chronic Water Shortage Imminent - Richard_Mills
10.How The Smart Money Is Playing The Lithium Boom - OilPrice_Com
Last 7 days
Gold Back With A Vengeance As Bitcoin Bubble Bursts - 26th Jun 17
Crude Oil Trade & Nasdaq QQQ Update - 26th Jun 17
Gold and Silver Ongoing Consolidation May End Soon - 25th Jun 17
Dollar May Become “Local Currency of the U.S.” Only - 25th Jun 17
Sheffield Great Flood of 2007, 10 Years On - Unique Timeline of What Happened - 24th Jun 17
US Stock Market Correction Could be Underway - 24th Jun 17
Proof That This Economic Recovery Narrative is False - 24th Jun 17
Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - 24th Jun 17
Gold Summer Doldrums - 23rd Jun 17
Hedgers Net Short the Euro, US Market Rotates; 2 Horsemen Set to Ride? - 23rd Jun 17
Nether Edge By Election Result: Labour Win Sheffield City Council Seat by 132 Votes - 23rd Jun 17
Grenfell Fire: 600 of 4000 Tower Blocks Ticking Time Bomb Death Traps! - 22nd Jun 17
Car Sales About To Go Over The Cliff - 22nd Jun 17
LOG 0.786 support in CRUDE OIL and COCOA - 22nd Jun 17
More Stock Market Fluctuations Along New Record Highs - 22nd Jun 17
Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - 22nd Jun 17
Green Party Could Control Sheffield City Council Balance of Power Local Election 2018 - 22nd Jun 17
Ratio Combo Charts : Hidden Clues to the Gold Market Puzzle - 22nd Jun 17
Steem Hard Forks & Now People Are Making Even More Money On Blockchain Steemit - 22nd Jun 17
4 Steps for Comparing Binary Options Providers - 22nd Jun 17
Nether Edge & Sharrow By-Election, Will Labour Lose Safe Council Seat, Sheffield? - 21st Jun 17
Stock Market SPX Making New Lows - 21st Jun 17
Your Future Wealth Depends on what You Decide to Keep and Invest in Now - 21st Jun 17
Either Bitcoin Will Fail OR Bitcoin Is A Government Invention Meant To Enslave... - 21st Jun 17
Strength in Gold and Silver Mining Stocks and Its Implications - 21st Jun 17
Inflation is No Longer in Stealth Mode - 21st Jun 17
CRUDE OIL UPDATE- “0.30 risk is cheap for changing implication!” - 20th Jun 17
Crude Oil Verifies Price Breakdown – Or Is It Something More? - 20th Jun 17
Trump Backs ISIS As He Pushes US Onto Brink of World War III With Russia - 20th Jun 17
Most Popular Auto Trading Tools for trading with Stock Markets - 20th Jun 17
GDXJ Gold Stocks Massacre: The Aftermath - 20th Jun 17
Why Walkers Crisps Pay Packet Promotion is RUBBISH! - 20th Jun 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The MRI 3D Report

High Risk of Near Term Global Financial, Stock Market Crash

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash May 15, 2012 - 02:36 AM GMT

By: Steven_Vincent

Stock-Markets Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAt each juncture, I look at the available information as represented in the market price and technical data. I approach the body of evidence without preconception and with an open "beginner's mind". I see what I see. I analyze. I develop a set of probabilistic outcomes and then rank them. Then I write my report. I simply report my findings.

There is an extraordinarily high risk of some variety of global market panic in the relatively near term. In fact, I would say that there is a extant setup that is as perfectly aligned for an extreme market event as could be dreamed of by the most bearish of permabears. I'm no permabear, but a thorough review of the current price and technical charts has revealed an inordinate confluence of data points which collaborate to represent a very high risk profile. The current extreme risk profile is amplified by a nearly total lack of recognition on the part of market participants. A deflationary episode, potentially on the scale of the 2008 event, is presently on the table. Investors would do well to at least consider the facts, analysis and conclusions of this report.


BULLISH CONSENSUS

I generally place Sentiment and Psychology at the bottom layers of my analysis since it it the softest and least reliable data to consider, but in this case I am going to lead with it simply because there appears to be not merely a significant gap between perception and reality but apparently a widening chasm.  Bulls are repeatedly citing "excessive" or "extreme" Bearishness as a primary basis for an ongoing Bullish outlook, but the evidence strongly suggests this is not only not warranted but that the exact opposite conditions prevail.

There appears to be nearly total complacency in the present market environment.  Few if any analysts are currently willing to consider a market top of any kind, much less a crash.  Based on the findings in my current BullBear Market Report, the continued bold bullishness of the overwhelming majority is simply not supported by the technicals of the market.  

Of late many Bulls are citing American Association of Individual Investors poll data which they view as proof positive of extreme bearishness in the market. First, let it be said that this data is soft and its interpretation is highly subjective and as such it is rarely useful and its best use comes when one side of the market is leaning heavily on its perception of the data to justify its market position.

Let's have a look at the current AAII data. Theoretically, a reading of 25% bulls and 43% bears tells us that most individual investors are bearishly aligned and therefore out of the market or short, setting up a bullish resolution. Let's backtest that a little:

In late May of 2011 there was a reading that exceeded the current poll. While it did mark a short term bottom and a sharp rally ensued (and the current setup could be similar), it was very brief and was immediately followed by a market crash. At the 2007 top, there were multiple readings which exceeded the current poll and yet that turned out to be a spectacularly good time to be Bearish. In 2008, just before the main leg of the crash, there were readings which exceeded the current poll and yet that was certainly a time when the smart money was Bearish. It only took a glance at the actual data to discover that drawing a long term Bullish conclusion from a single week's AAII polling data is entirely unsupported by the facts.

One might also want to look and see if there is some supporting, corroborative data. I did, and there isn't any. In fact, the exact opposite appears to be true. Other similar sentiment data appears to suggest excessive Bullishness in the market at this juncture.

Investor's Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio remains relatively high with a slight increase in Bulls and a sharp drop in Bears to very low levels:


In addition, the percent of II respondents calling for a Correction has surged to a 12 year high as the percent who are Bearish has dropped to levels seen at the 2007, 2010 and 2011 tops:

In this context those calling for a Correction are in fact long term Bulls who are looking to buy this dip. For the contrarian, this can be interpreted as a strongly Bearish setup.

National Association of Active Investment Managers poll surged to over 60% bulls last week and increased yet again this week:

Consensus Inc survey is certainly in the sell zone:

Market Vane is at levels far more correlated with significant tops than bottoms:

Hulbert Stock Sentiment is closer to its Bull extreme than its Bearish extreme:

Now let me be clear. I am not basing my Bearish market view on this sentiment data. I am merely pointing out that, contrary to current popular perception, sentiment polling data supports a Bearish rather than a Bullish view.

A survey of the financial news media and popular blog sites also reveals very little in the way of bearish psychology. Few if any are calling a top of significance while some grudgingly admit the possibility of a "pullback" or "correction".

BEARISH ASSET ALLOCATION, LOW CASH

A little more digging into the AAII data shows that the same investors who are supposedly "extremely bearish" have allocated assets in a pattern that closely resembles that which has been found at important tops:



Stock allocation is at the same levels found immediately preceding the 2008, 2010 and 2011 crashes and only slightly below levels found immediately preceding the 2001 and 2002 crashes. Investors were similarly allocated to bonds just prior to the 2010 and 2011 declines. Cash allocation is identical to that found at the 2007, 2010 and 2011 tops and only slightly higher than that found at the 2000 top.

Rydex fund asset distribution data corroborates the AAII data:



Available cash in Money Market funds is nearly at a 3 year low. Rydex Bull fund allocation is hovering near the highs while Bear fund allocation is at the lows. Total assets in all Rydex funds is falling as money exits the markets.

Rydex asset ratio also corroborates the AAII data. It has surged to the bullish side recently to levels above the 2011 highs and is at levels far above those found at the 2007 and 2010 tops:



It appears that market participants have clearly chosen to view the recent decline as a buying opportunity and show no sign of fearing a significant bearish turn in the markets. This smacks of late bulls desperately seeking an entry point at the top of the market, trying to make up for having missed the big run. In light of the technical analysis I present in the current BullBear Market Report, this behavior may represent a dangerous misalignment with reality.

Much ado is currently being made of equity Mutual Fund outflows and Bond fund inflows. In my view the evaporation of public interest in stocks in the current environment is not bullish. Bulls argue that this means that the public is not invested and therefore represents latent buying power on the sidelines. While this may be true in the context of a healthy bull market, we will see later in this report that this market is not technically sound. In this context the flight of public capital from the markets represents a dearth of available cash, not a surplus:

Mutual Fund cash is at all time lows.

The available cash sitting on the sidelines in money market funds ready to be deployed is near record lows:

In the context of a bullish consensus coupled with a technically weak market, this is a very dangerous situation. Any unexpected market dislocation could result is a free fall with little in the way of sideline cash to stop the fall.

The 200 EMA of Total Market Volume peaked on the first decline of the 2007 bear market:



It has been declining steadily since then. Declining volume during the 2007-2009 bear market was not Bullish.

Even downside volume slipped during the 2007-2009 decline:


Upside volume is now at levels seen in 1997:

How does the behavior of market volume during the current Bear market compare and contrast with prior bear markets?

As we can see, volume on the Dow has fallen off a cliff since 2007 and since 2009 volume has come in well below the 50 Quarter EMA. Volume declined in every quarter sequentially except in the down quarters during major market pullbacks in 2010 and 2011.



During the 1966-1982 bear market, volume stayed well above the 50 Quarter EMA and even managed to expand during the course of the Bear, with periods of higher volume during Bullish phases and lower volume during Bearish phases, the opposite of what we have seen during our current market. As the Bear neared its end and began to enter a new Bull, market volume began to expand dramatically, doubling as the Bull began its run. That's the opposite of the behavior we have seen in the present market. It's well known that the public fled the markets during this period, much as they have during the current phase, and famously the "Death of Equities" was declared. A dramatic drop in public participation was bearish then, until the bear market ended on expanding volume.



During the 1929-1932 Bear market, volume fell dramatically during the Bear as investors fled the market. During the early stages of the new Bull, volume in excess of the 50 Quarter EMA came almost exclusively during big rallies and Bullish phases with very low volume during Bearish phases. Again, this is quite distinct from the behavior we are seeing in the present market.


Historical precedent does not support the thesis that low volume and investor flight is a sign or condition of a nascent Bull market.

CONCLUSIONS

The current sentiment and psychology of the market, when taken together with the rigorous and thourough technical analysis provided in the latest BullBear Market Report, shows that there is simply no question whatsoever that the overwhelming weight of evidence indicates a strong potential for a near term crash of world financial markets. Certainly, there are many times when latent potential is not realized and there is a valid setup for a near term rally as well. But in an environment of psychological and emotional complacency the probabilities become heavily skewed towards a realized bearish outcome. Global financial markets are currently in a bona fide crash window and panic events similar to the 1987, 2008, 2010 or 2011 episodes are all very real possibilities.
There's an elephant in the room and no one wants to acknowledge it.

Go here to read the full BullBear Market Report:


Disclosure: No current positions.
By Steve Vincent

http://www.thebullbear.com

Steven Vincent has been studying and trading the markets since 1998 and is a member of the Market Technicians Association. He is proprietor of BullBear Trading which provides market analysis, timing and guidance to subscribers. He focuses intermediate to long term swing trading. When he is not charting and analyzing the markets he teaches yoga and meditation in Los Angeles.

© 2011 Copyright Steven Vincent - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

ktt
15 May 12, 11:51
Woh I can not beliefe this

attention High Risk of Near Term Global Financial, Stock Market Crash While it did mark a short term bottom and a sharp rally ensued (and the current setup could be similar).

What is your proberbility of the first scenario in your heading and what is the properbilty in the second scenario of A SHARP RALLEY

Or is this a 50/50 coin flip.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife