Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2017 Seats Final Forecast, Labour, Conservative Lib-Dem, SNP - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK General Election 2017 Forecast: Conservative 358, Labour 212 Seats - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Conservative Seats Result - Nadeem_Walayat
6.The Stock Market Crash of 2017 That Never Was But Could it Still Come to Pass? - Sol_Palha
7.[TRADE ALERT] Write This Gold Stock Ticker Down Now - WallStreetNation
8.UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Orphaned Poisoned Waters,Severe Chronic Water Shortage Imminent - Richard_Mills
10.How The Smart Money Is Playing The Lithium Boom - OilPrice_Com
Last 7 days
Grenfell Fire: 600 of 4000 Tower Blocks Ticking Time Bomb Death Traps! - 22nd Jun 17
Car Sales About To Go Over The Cliff - 22nd Jun 17
LOG 0.786 support in CRUDE OIL and COCOA - 22nd Jun 17
More Stock Market Fluctuations Along New Record Highs - 22nd Jun 17
Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - 22nd Jun 17
Green Party Could Control Sheffield City Council Balance of Power Local Election 2018 - 22nd Jun 17
Ratio Combo Charts : Hidden Clues to the Gold Market Puzzle - 22nd Jun 17
Steem Hard Forks & Now People Are Making Even More Money On Blockchain Steemit - 22nd Jun 17
4 Steps for Comparing Binary Options Providers - 22nd Jun 17
Nether Edge & Sharrow By-Election, Will Labour Lose Safe Council Seat, Sheffield? - 21st Jun 17
Stock Market SPX Making New Lows - 21st Jun 17
Your Future Wealth Depends on what You Decide to Keep and Invest in Now - 21st Jun 17
Either Bitcoin Will Fail OR Bitcoin Is A Government Invention Meant To Enslave... - 21st Jun 17
Strength in Gold and Silver Mining Stocks and Its Implications - 21st Jun 17
Inflation is No Longer in Stealth Mode - 21st Jun 17
CRUDE OIL UPDATE- “0.30 risk is cheap for changing implication!” - 20th Jun 17
Crude Oil Verifies Price Breakdown – Or Is It Something More? - 20th Jun 17
Trump Backs ISIS As He Pushes US Onto Brink of World War III With Russia - 20th Jun 17
Most Popular Auto Trading Tools for trading with Stock Markets - 20th Jun 17
GDXJ Gold Stocks Massacre: The Aftermath - 20th Jun 17
Why Walkers Crisps Pay Packet Promotion is RUBBISH! - 20th Jun 17
7 Signs You Should Add Gold To Your Portfolio Now - 19th Jun 17
US Bonds and Related Market Indicators - 19th Jun 17
Wireless Wars: The Billion Dollar Tech Boom No One Is Talking About - 19th Jun 17
Amey Playing Cat and Mouse Game with Sheffield Residents and Tree Campaigners - 19th Jun 17
Positive Stock Market Expectations, But Will Uptrend Continue? - 19th Jun 17
Gold Proprietary Cycle Indicator Remains Down - 19th Jun 17
Stock Market Higher Highs Still Likely - 18th Jun 17
The US Government Clamps Down on Ability of Americans To Purchase Bitcoin - 18th Jun 17
NDX/NAZ Continue downward pressure on the US Stock Market - 18th Jun 17
Return of the Gold Bear? - 18th Jun 17
Are Sheffield's High Rise Tower Blocks Safe? Grenfell Cladding Fire Disaster! - 18th Jun 17
Globalist Takeover Of The Internet Moves Into Overdrive - 17th Jun 17
Crazy Charging Stocks Bull Market Random Thoughts - 17th Jun 17
Reflation, Deflation and Gold - 17th Jun 17
Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy - 17th Jun 17
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 17
Drones Upending Business Models and Reshaping Industry Landscapes - 16th Jun 17
Grenfell Tower Cladding Fire Disaster, 4,000 Ticking Time Bombs, Sheffield Council Flats Panic! - 16th Jun 17
Heating Oil Bottom Is In.(probably) - 16th Jun 17
Here’s the Investing Reason Active Funds Can’t Beat Passive Funds—and It Worries Me a Lot - 16th Jun 17
Is There Gold “Hype” and is Gold an Emotional Trade? - 16th Jun 17
The War On Cash Is Now Becoming The War On Cryptocurrency - 15th Jun 17
The US Dollar Bull Case - 15th Jun 17
The Pros and Cons of Bitcoin and Blockchain - 15th Jun 17
The Retail Sector Downfall We Saw Coming - 15th Jun 17
Charts That Explain Why The US Rule Oil Prices Not OPEC - 15th Jun 17
How to Find the Best Auto Loan - 15th Jun 17
Ultra-low Stock Market Volatility #ThisTimeIsDifferent - 14th Jun 17
DOLLAR has recently damaged GOLD and SILVER- viewed in MRI 3D charts - 14th Jun 17
US Dollar Acceleration Phase is Dead Ahead! - 14th Jun 17
Hit or Pass? An Overview of 2017’s Best Ranked Stocks - 14th Jun 17
Rise Gold to Recommence Work at Idaho Maryland Mine After 60 Years - 14th Jun 17
Stock Market Tech Shakeout! - 14th Jun 17
The #1 Gold Stock of 2017 - 14th Jun 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The MRI 3D Report

The Time Has Come Mr. Bernanke for More Stimulus!

Stock-Markets / Economic Stimulus Jun 02, 2012 - 02:26 PM GMT

By: Sy_Harding

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor several months Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been assuring Congress and by extension, investors, that the Fed stands ready with ammunition to re-stimulate the economy “if it becomes necessary.”

It has become necessary.


In each of the last two summers the Fed waited until the economic recovery had stumbled near the point of sliding into recession, and the stock market correction was close to crossing the 20% line into a bear market, before coming to the rescue (with QE2 in 2010 and ‘Operation Twist’ last summer). And it lucked out. Both times the economy picked up for another six months before rolling over again. Both times the stock market recovered and resumed the bull market that has been in place since early 2009.

But the global problems of the last two summers were picnics in the park compared to what is going on this year. Sure, both times the eurozone debt crisis had reared its head again, and there were worries about how much it would cost to bail Greece out, and how much it would cost to put a ‘ring fence’ around the rest of the eurozone.

However, this year we are witnessing a train-wreck of historic proportions taking place in the eurozone, Greece expected to fall off the tracks and tumble clear out of the eurozone, with who knows what results to the European financial system, with Spain’s train following and now potentially piling into the wreckage, while economically the 17-nation eurozone is already clearly in a worsening recession.

In the last two summers, the worries from Asia were merely that China and India faced rising inflation, and in their efforts to bring it under control might slow their booming economic growth, which could have a marginal effect on economies elsewhere.

This year, Asia’s problems are much worse. The slowdown in China, the world’s second largest economy continues to worsen. Its manufacturing output has declined for seven straight months, with its HSBC PMI now running under 50, indicating recessionary contraction. India reported this week that its economic growth slid to its lowest level in nine years.

In South America, Brazil, the world’s 7th largest economy, cut its official interest rates to a record low this week in an increasingly desperate effort to re-stimulate its slowing economy.

And then there are stock markets, which tend to lead the economy by six to nine months. They sure don’t seem to like what they’re seeing down the road.

While in the U.S. the S&P 500 has declined less than 10% since mid-March, global markets outside of the U.S. have been in serious corrections. The stock markets of the world’s next 11 largest economies have plunged an average of 18.4% and show few signs of bottoming. Several have exceeded the 20% decline that defines entry into a bear market.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic reports have been grim for several months, and the additional dismal reports this week do not encourage the thought that the U.S. recovery can get back on track on its own.

The week’s reports included economic growth (GDP) for the first quarter being revised down to just 1.9%, from the previously reported 2.2%. Consumer Confidence fell in May in its biggest monthly decline in 8 months (versus forecasts that it would rise). The Pending Home Sales Index (contracts for future home sales) fell 5.5% in April, its first decline in 4 months. The closely watched Chicago PMI, which measures business conditions in the Fed’s Chicago region, fell to 52.7 in May from 56.2 in April. Any number above 50 indicates that businesses are still expanding, but it was the third straight monthly decline, clearly headed in the wrong direction. And the national ISM Mfg Index dropped to 53.5 in May from 54.8 in April.

On Friday, the Labor Department released a bomb of a jobs report. Only 69,000 new jobs were created in May, versus already pessimistic forecasts of 150,000. And perhaps worse, as it provides further evidence that the economy has been weaker even than feared, the previous report for April that 115,000 jobs had been created was revised down to only 77,000.

For the Fed, as the U.S. economic recovery stumbles again this summer, that’s a much uglier backdrop than in the slowdowns of the last two summers.

It makes it much less likely the Fed will luck out if it waits until the last minute to come to the rescue this time. In fact there’s no assurance that the Fed even has firepower that will work this time. But at least an effort might pick up confidence enough to make some difference.

Observers believe that stimulus needed to reinvigorate China’s economy is on hold until the Chinese government leadership changes in October. But, analysts expect the European Central Bank to step in with renewed stimulus efforts next week.

The Fed’s next FOMC meeting is June 20. Expectations have been for it to take no action. But this week’s economic reports and further plunges in global stock markets should change its mind. It’s time for the Fed to act.

In the interest of full disclosure, I don’t really mind what’s going on. My indicators came off their October buy signal in mid-February, and I and my subscribers took our profits, and we currently are 40% in ‘inverse’ etf’s (SH and RWM), and 60% in cash. But, it’s not as much fun to make profits from the downside when many are experiencing losses again.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., and editor of the free market blog Street Smart Post.

© 2012 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

gAnton
02 Jun 12, 20:42
The Bankers Best Friend

Well, FED stimulus seemed to work before–why might it not work this time?

Well, first of all, “before” the EU and EURO currency were not in the advanced stage of going to hell in a handbasket.

Secondly, “before” the China economy was not in decline and on the verge of a USA 2008 style real estate bust.

Thirdly, every past FED action has had many negative effects on the economy, such as weakening of the dollar, inflation, much higher soverign debt, etc.. In other words, Dr. Bernanke’s patient (the economy) is basically in much worse shape than ever before because of Bernanke’s past treatments.

When Bernanke uses the word “recovery”, I assume he means an economy with the economic statistics similar to those of the economy before the 2008 bust. But that wasn’t a healthy economy–it was an economy on the verge of a big bust.

It should be clear by now to everyone that all of the

results of Bernanke’s past efforts were at best cosmetic and temporary, and at worst illusionary or catastrophic.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife