Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve 3 Amigos Update - 22nd Jun 18
Gold - How Long Can This Last? - 22nd Jun 18
Dow Has Fallen 8 days in a Row. Medium-long Term Bullish for Stocks - 22nd Jun 18
Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help - 22nd Jun 18
Financial Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts 2018 - A Message from Nadeem Walayat - 21st Jun 18
SPX Bouncing Above Support - 21st Jun 18
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now - 21st Jun 18
The NASDAQ’s Outperformance vs. the Dow is Very Bullish - 21st Jun 18
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation - 20th Jun 18
Gold GLD ETF Update… Breakdown ? - 20th Jun 18
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think - 19th Jun 18
Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited - 19th Jun 18
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD - 15th Jun 18
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off - 15th Jun 18
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? - 15th Jun 18
The Biggest Online Gambling Companies - 15th Jun 18
Powell's Excess Reserve Change and Gold - 15th Jun 18
Is This a Big Sign of a Big Stock Market Turn? - 15th Jun 18
Will Italy Sink the EU and Boost Gold? - 15th Jun 18
Bumper Crash! Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Audi - 15th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Pause Before Going Higher? - 14th Jun 18
Is the ECB Ending QE a Good Thing? Markets Think So - 14th Jun 18
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten. A Bullish Sign for the Stock Market - 14th Jun 18
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy - 14th Jun 18
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support - 14th Jun 18
Stock Market Near Another Top? - 14th Jun 18
Thorpe Park REAL Walking Dead Living Nightmare Zombie Car Park Ride Experience! - 14th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Draghi Just Pulled Out His Bazooka… How Long Before the Stock Market Crash?

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Jul 27, 2012 - 07:27 AM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday, the markets exploded higher on ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments that the ECB stands by ready to do whatever is needed to hold the EU together

We’ve seen this exact same game plan before in 2008 when Hank Paulson claimed that getting a blank check from Congress to battle the US banking Crisis would be like having a bazooka: the markets would be shocked and awed back into functioning properly.


Setting aside the absurdity of an alleged capitalist claiming that government policy could scare the market into behaving properly, we all know that Paulson’s bazooka turned out to be a peashooter. Indeed, all he got for his efforts (combined with the SEC banning short selling on financial institutions) was about two months of market gains.

The ECB’s Mario Draghi appears to have taken a page straight out of Paulson’s playbook (obviously he didn’t bother paying attention to how this particular play panned out). His comments have the same vagueness and the same illusory sense of control.

With that in mind, I ask all of you to make a note of yesterday’s date, July 27 2012, because it’s going to go down in Europe’s history as the “bazooka moment.”

Once again we have a monetary authority figure (another former Goldman Sachs employee to boot) claiming he can shock and awe the markets into behaving properly. His comments assisted by short-selling bans in Europe, have sent stocks through the roof.

However, I have no doubt that these effects will be even more short-lived than Paulson’s bazooka. The reasons are numerous. Here are a few worth exploring if you’re actually buying into this rally:

1)   Spain requested a €100 billion bailout in June… it then requested €300 billion this month… and Spain’s Prime Minister admitted via text message that the real capital needs are in the ballpark of €500 billion, assuming he knows what he’s talking about and Spanish banks have been honest with him (HIGHLY doubtful).

2)   Greece, without additional intervention, will run out of money by mid-August. The ECB no longer accepts Greece bonds as collateral. The IMF has halted funding to Greece. And Germany’s politicians are pushing Merkel to give Greece the boot. So who is going to stop Greece from defaulting?

3)   Speaking of which, Greece has now seen a 20% contraction in GDP. This is akin to Argentina in 2001 when the entire financial system there imploded. Expect the same to happen in Greece the very minute that the money tap is turned off.

4)   Germany is already on the hook for €1 trillion in backdoor bailouts to the EU and is now on negative watch for Moody’s. Do you think Merkel will let Germany lose its AAA status the year before she’s up for election?

5)   Germany, thanks to its EU interventions, now has a Debt to GDP ratio of 90%: the level at which its own solvency is called into question.

If you think the ECB can contain this mess, you’re wrong. The ECB is out of ammo. How do I know?

1)   The ECB hasn’t bought a single EU Sovereign Bond in 16 weeks.

2)   The ECB blew over €1 trillion via LTRO 1 and LTRO 2 only to find that

  1. The effects lasted less than two months
  2. The markets punished those banks that called on the ECB for aid (these requests were seen as public admissions of insolvency)

3)   If the ECB hits the print button and monetizes, Germany will walk. End of story. The word Weimar is still fresh in the German collective memory.  And the German population is already outraged by their country’s EU interventions, the risk of losing their AAA status, and the fact they’re now heading into a recession.

4)   Angela Merkel has told Draghi and others that there will not be Eurobonds as long as she lives. Unlike Draghi, she’s not bluffing.

5)   And finally, the ECB’s balance sheet is roughly $4 trillion. The EU banking system is $46 trillion. And EU bank derivative exposure is north of $200 trillion. How exactly can the ECB contain this mess?

It can’t. Draghi is pulling a classic Central Banker stunt: verbal intervention. If Draghi could in fact solve this mess, he would have already done so. The EU Crisis started in 2010 after all. And here we are, over two years later, and even Greece, which only comprises 2% of EU GDP, has yet to see its problems solved.

If the ECB cannot solve Greece’s problems, how on earth could it solve those of Spain or the entire EU for that matter?

The answer is obvious: it can’t.

Those investors looking for actionable investment ideas could also consider our Private Wealth Advisory newsletter: a bi-weekly detailed investment advisory service that distills the most important geopolitical, economic, and financial developments in the markets into concise investment strategies for individual investors.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you navigate the markets successfully…

Click Here Now!!!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

http://gainspainscapital.com

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2012 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules