Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Trend Forecast, Where are the Gold Traders? - Bob_Loukas
2.Stocks Bear Market of 2017 Begins? Shorting the Dow At its Peak! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Betting on President Trump Leaving Office Early, Presidency End Date - Betfair Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Why Stock Market Analysts Will be Wrong About 2017 - Clif_Droke
5.Is This The Best Way For Investors To Play The Electric Car Boom - OilPrice_Com
6.Silver Price 2017 Trend Forecast Update - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold Price Set For Very Bullish 2017, Trend Forecast - Austin_Galt
8.10 Things I learned From Meetings With Trump’s Transition Team - - John_Mauldin
9.How Investors Can Profit From Trumps Military Ambitions - OilPrice_Com
10.Channel 4 War on 'Fake News', Forgets Own Alt Reality Propaganda Broadcasting - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market SPX New All-time Highs Continue - 25th Feb 17
POWERFUL GOLD & SILVER COILED SPRINGS: Important Charts You Have To See - 25th Feb 17
Underperformance in Gold Stocks Argues for Interim Peak - 25th Feb 17
Watch What Happens When Silver Price Hits $26...  - 25th Feb 17
Gold Futures Buying Yet to Start - 25th Feb 17
When the Stock Market Flying Pig Tops - 24th Feb 17
Gold, Second Fed Hike and Interest Rates - 24th Feb 17
Bitcoin Price Hits Record High! - 24th Feb 17
Another Stock Market Bubble? Bring it On! - 24th Feb 17
What Investors Need To Know About U.S. Money Market Funds? - 24th Feb 17
When Was America’s Peak Wealth? - 24th Feb 17
The Oscars – Worth Their Weight in Gold? - 24th Feb 17
The Best Reasons to Buy Gold in the Age of Trump - 22nd Feb 17
Silver, The Return of Stagflation - 22nd Feb 17
Why EU BrExit Single Market Access Hard line is European Union Committing Suicide - 22nd Feb 17
Gold: Short End US Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields - 22nd Feb 17
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES: Example Of What Is Horribly Wrong With The U.S. Shale Oil Industry - 22nd Feb 17
Here’s Proof Rising Rates Are Good for Gold - 21st Feb 17
Gold and Silver Weekly Update - 21st Feb 17
US Dollar and Gold Battle of the Cycles - 21st Feb 17
NSA and CIA is the Enemy of the People - 21st Feb 17
Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases - 21st Feb 17
Stock Market Uptrend Continues - 21st Feb 17
Brent Crude Oil Price Technical Update: Low Volatility Leads to High Volatility - 20th Feb 17
Trump’s Tax System Could Spark The Wave Of Self-Employment - 20th Feb 17
Here’s How to Stay Ahead of Machines and AI - 20th Feb 17
Warning Signs Of Instability In Russia - 20th Feb 17
Warning: This Energy Investment Could Wreak Havoc On Your Portfolio - 20th Feb 17
The Mother of All Financial Bubbles will be Unimaginably Destructive when it Bursts - 19th Feb 17
Gold’s Fundamentals Strengthen - 18th Feb 17
The Flynn Fiascom, the Trump Revolution Ends in a Whimper - 18th Feb 17
Not Nearly Enough Economic Growth To Keep Growing - 18th Feb 17
SPX Stocks Bull Market Continues to make New Highs - 18th Feb 17
China Disaster to Trigger Gold Run, Trump to Appoint 5 of 7 Fed Governors - 18th Feb 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

State of Global Markets 2017 - Report

Where Would Stock Market Be Without Fed Intervention?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Sep 12, 2012 - 12:26 PM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe’ve entered a truly dangerous environment in the financial markets.

Economic fundamentals are deteriorating rapidly. Consider the US…

By all counts, the latest ISM (a measure of manufacturing in the US) was a complete and total disaster. In August the ISM hit 49. Anything below 50 is considered a recessionary rating.


However, things are even worse below the surface. The ISM is made up of several components. Its Production component is back to May 2009 levels. The New Orders component is back to April 2009 levels.

And worse of all, Prices Paid is up to 54, up from a reading of just 39 in July.

In very simple terms this tells us that inflation appears to be hitting “lift off” in the US at the very same time that we are entering another recession that could potentially be on par with that of 2008. And with corn and soybean prices at or near record highs, we could be on the verge of a stagflationary disaster combined with a food crisis at the very same time.

We get additional confirmation of a major economic contraction from corporate earnings. Recently we’ve seen earnings forecast cuts from Fed Ex, Bed Bath and Beyond, Proctor and Gamble, Adobe, Starbucks, McDonald’s and more.  Indeed, when you remove financials, S&P 500 earnings FELL year over year for 2Q12.

This is hardly indicative of a strong economy. The fact a record number of Americans are on food stamps doesn’t bode well either. And the Rasmussen Employment Index indicates worker confidence is at levels not seen since the FALL OF 2008!

Against this backdrop, stocks have rallied higher and higher on hopes of more liquidity from global Central Banks. As a result, the market has completely disconnected from underlying economic realities. Based on the business cycle alone, the S&P 500 should be closer to 1,000. And even the NY Fed has revealed that without the impact of Fed meetings, the S&P 500 would be at 600!

This is a truly staggering admission from a Fed official. This is the Fed admitting to us, point blank, that without investors trading based on hopes of Fed intervention, the markets would essentially be even lower than they were in March 2009.

Again, this is a truly dangerous environment. Because if investors lose faith in the Fed or ECB, then it’s GAME OVER. This process is definitely already underway already as the impact of each successive intervention by a Central Bank is having a shorter and shorter lifespan.

I cannot say when exactly the Central Banks will lose control of the markets. But we’re not far from it. Some major takeaway items you should consider:

1)   The Fed will likely be dismantled or restructured in the coming years. It’s clear from various dynamics that some Fed Presidents are positioning themselves to replace Bernanke if Romney wins. Moreover, even former Fed Presidents are admitting they’re concerned about the future of central banking.

2)   Politicians, worldwide, have proven incapable of implementing real fundamental fiscal reforms (all the talk of “austerity” is a lie as few if any countries have begun a serious process of deleveraging). Central Bankers are beginning to catch on to this game and are increasingly blaming politicians for the fact the Crisis has yet to be resolved. Look for this relationship (between Central Bankers and politicians) to continue to deteriorate with serious consequences.

3)   Europe will be the first area in which the “End Game” hits. We’ve just had the promise of “unlimited” bond buying. In terms of verbal intervention, you cannot go any further than this. When this promise turns out to be a bluff (see yesterday’s article for why this will prove to be the case) then the markets will crater.

I give this last item perhaps a month or so before it takes hold. Unless Germany completely changes and goes along with the idea of Eurobonds (unlikely given that it violates the German constitution and would cost Angela Merkel her bid for re-election in 2013), then the ECB is essentially out of bullets. You cannot say “unlimited” and bluff about it. And the ECB is doing nothing now but bluffing.

Those investors looking for actionable investment ideas could also consider our Private Wealth Advisory newsletter: a bi-weekly detailed investment advisory service that distills the most important geopolitical, economic, and financial developments in the markets into concise investment strategies for individual investors.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you navigate the markets successfully…

Click Here Now!!!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

http://gainspainscapital.com

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2012 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife