Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.U.S. Inner City Turmoil and Other Crises: Ron Pauls Predictions for 2015 - Dr_Ron_Paul
2. What’s In Store For Gold Price in 2015? - Ben Kramer-Miller
3.Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2025: Importers Set to Receive a $600 Billion Refund - Andrew_Butter
4.Je ne suis pas Charlie - I am not Charlie - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The New Normal for Oil? - Marin_Katusa
6.Will Collapse in Oil Price Cause a Stock Market Crash? - OilPrice.com
7.UK CPI Inflation Smoke and Mirrors Deflation Warning, Inflation Mega-trend is Exponential - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Winter Storms Snow and Wind Tree Damage Dangers, DIY Pruning - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Oil Price Crash and SNP Independent Scotland Economic Collapse Bankruptcy - Nadeem_Walayat
10.U.S. Housing Market Bubble 2.0 Meet the Pin - James_Quinn
Last 5 days
The Fed and ECB Take the West back to when the Rich Owned Everything - 28th Jan 15
Washington's War on Russia - 28th Jan 15
Cyber War Poses Risks To Banks and Deposits - 28th Jan 15
Lies And Deception In Ukraine's Energy Sector - 28th Jan 15
EUR, AUD, GBP USD – Invalidation of Breakdown - 28th Jan 15
“Backup-Camera Envy” Is Driving This Unstoppaple Investment Trend - 28th Jan 15
The Great "inflated" Expectations for Gold, Oil, Commodities -- and Now Stocks - 28th Jan 15
How to Find the Best Offshore Banks - 28th Jan 15
There’s More to the Gold Price Rally Than European Market Fears - 28th Jan 15
Bitcoin Price Tense Days Ahead - 27th Jan 15
The Most Overlooked “Buy” Signal in the Stock Market - 27th Jan 15
Gold's Time Has Come - 27th Jan 15
France America And Religious Terror War - 27th Jan 15
The New Drivers of Europe's Geopolitics - 27th Jan 15
Gold And Silver - Around The FX World In Charts - 27th Jan 15
It’s Not The Greeks Who Failed, It’s The EU - 27th Jan 15
Gold and Silver Stocks Investing Basics - 27th Jan 15
Stock Market Test of Strength - 26th Jan 15
Is the Gold Price Rally Over? - 26th Jan 15
ECB QE Action - Canary’s Alive & Well - 26th Jan 15
Possible Stock Market Pop-n-drop in Store For SPX - 26th Jan 15
Risk of New Debt Crisis After Syriza Victory In Greece - 26th Jan 15
How Eurozone QE Works: A Guide to Draghi's News - 26th Jan 15
Comprehensive Silver Price Chart Analysis - 26th Jan 15
Stock Market More Retracement Expected - 26th Jan 15
Decoding the Gold COTs: Myth vs Reality - 26th Jan 15
Greece Votes for Syriza Hyperinflation - Threatening Euro-zone Collapse or Perpetual Free Lunch - 26th Jan 15
Draghi's "No-growth" QE Money for Stocks, Zilch for the Economy - 25th Jan 15
Unjust and Undeclared Wars - 25th Jan 15
The European Central Bank Commits Monetary Suicide - 25th Jan 15
Stock Market ECB EQE week - 25th Jan 15
Gold And Silver Timing Is Most Important Element - 25th Jan 15
The Best Way to Invest in the Next Alibaba Internet Stock IPO - 25th Jan 15
The Outpatient Surgery Business Rains Cash into Healthcare Stocks - 25th Jan 15
Stock Traders Flock to Gold GLD ETF - 24th Jan 15
10 Reasons Why You Need an Offshore Bank Account - 24th Jan 15
Goldman Sachs Blankfein - Regulation is Like Background Noise - 24th Jan 15
Gold in Euros Surges As ECB To Print Trillion Euros and Greek Election This Sunday - 24th Jan 15
Gold Bear Market Rally or New Bull ? - 24th Jan 15
Euro-zone 'QE already Working' Says IMF Lagarde - 23rd Jan 15
ECB and EU LTRO and QE for Dummies: Or, Make These Trades - 23rd Jan 15
Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts - There's More Than Falling Prices - 23rd Jan 15
Market Should Not Doubt' Mario Draghi ECB QE - 23rd Jan 15
Francs, Bonds, Barrels, and Bail-Ins - 23rd Jan 15
Are Plunging Petrodollar Revenues Behind the Fed’s Projected Rate Hikes? - 22nd Jan 15
Stocks Bear Market Lessons from History - 22nd Jan 15
Russia's Plans for Arctic Supremacy - 22nd Jan 15
166 Trillion Reasons Why Bank Stocks Are So Cheap - 22nd Jan 15
Will Gold Price Break Out Once Again? - 22nd Jan 15
The Cult of Central Banking - 21st Jan 15
Five Stock Market Questions Wall Street Hopes You’ll Never Ask - 21st Jan 15
China's Yuan Enters the Currency "Big Leagues" to Take on the Dollar - 21st Jan 15
Investor implications of QE by the ECB - 21st Jan 15
Deflation Bonanza! And the Fool's Mission to Stop It - 21st Jan 15
Messin' With My Financial Brain - 21st Jan 15
Are Stock Market Buyouts Checking Out? - 20th Jan 15
Legal “Steroids” Are Making This Tech Stock a “Buy” - 20th Jan 15
Are Stock Market Storm Clouds Massing? - 20th Jan 15
The Swiss Release the Kraken! - 20th Jan 15
The European Union, Nationalism and the Crisis of Europe - 20th Jan 15
Swiss Say No to QE - 20th Jan 15
Gold Demand Explodes as Volatility and Fear Stalk Market - 20th Jan 15
The Truth About This Stock Market "Meltdown" Indicator - 20th Jan 15
Markets 2015 More Of The Same? - 20th Jan 15
Is Market Sentiment Shifting to Gold? - 20th Jan 15
U.S. Dollar’s Major Breakout and Gold’s Simultaneous Rally - 19th Jan 15
Silver Price Breaks Out on Swiss France Euro Decoupling - 19th Jan 15
Gold Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern - 19th Jan 15
Bundesbank Announces Repatriation of 120 Tonnes of Gold from Paris and New York Federal Reserve - 19th Jan 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

State of US Markets 2015 Report

Derivative Meltdown and U.S. Dollar Collapse

Stock-Markets / Derivatives Oct 17, 2012 - 07:21 AM GMT

By: BATR

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe frightening prospects from a derivative meltdown, well known for years, seem to deepen with every measure to prop up a failing international financial system. The essay Greed is Good, but Derivatives are Better, characterizes the gamble game in this fashion:

"The elegance of derivatives is that the rules that defy nature are not involved in intangible swaps. The basic value in the payment from the risk is always dumped on the back of the taxpayer. Ponzi schemes are legal when government croupiers spin loaded balls on their fudged roulette tables."


Under conventional international trading settlement, the world reserve currency is the Dollar. The loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve System causes a corresponding decline in value in U. S Treasury obligations. Add into this risk equation, derivative instruments that are deadly threats that can well destroy national currencies. One such response to this unchecked danger can be found in a Bloomberg Businessweek perceptive article, A Shortage of Bonds to Back Derivatives Bets, makes a stark forecast.

"Starting next year, new rules will force banks, hedge funds, and other traders to back up more of their bets in the $648 trillion derivatives market by posting collateral. While the rules are designed to prevent another financial meltdown, a shortage of Treasury bonds and other top-rated debt to use as collateral may undermine the effort to make the system safer."

However, what happens when buyers of Treasury notes abandon the reoccurring cycle of rollover debt and stop buying new T-Bonds? Take the Chinese example as a template for things to come. China's yuan hits record high amid US pressure, "The Yuan touched an intraday high of nearly 6.2640 to $1.0, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, marking the highest level since 1994 when the country launched its modern foreign exchange market."

While it is old news that the Dollar consistently drops in purchasing power, the circumvention of typical trade agreements, that by-pass transitions using the Dollar as the currency of exchange, is relatively recent. The next report forewarns of a major departure from the post Bretton Woods global trade environment.

China And Japan Move Away From Dollar, Will Conduct Bilateral Trade Using Own Currencies, is one method to avoid the direct consequences of a derivative meltdown.

"The China Foreign Exchange Trade System, the division of the People's Bank of China which manages currency trading, said that the country will set a daily trading rate based on a weighted average of prices given by market makers. The People's Bank said on Tuesday that an initial trading rate would be set at 7.9480 Yuan for every 100 Yen at market in Shanghai. Unlike yuan-dollar trading, which only allows for a daily fluctuation of 1 percent in Yuan trading value, Yuan trading with the Yen will be able to move within a 3 percent range."

Timing of a Dollar reputation is almost impossible to pinpoint with precise market foreknowledge. Yet the inevitability that The Dollar is Doomed, refers to the insight of "Hans F. Sennholz in his essay - Saving the Dollar from Destruction - we are presented with a bleak financial future. Even under optimum conditions, the alternatives are not pleasant. Now let’s ask the 64,000 dollar question. What will happen when interest rates start to rise?"

The economic havoc, with the rise in interest rates, will greatly disrupt existing worldwide trade agreements and practices. In the article How The U.S. Dollar Will Be Replaced, Brandon Smith addresses the pragmatic measures undertaken by major trade partners to protect their domestic economies from a Dollar freefall.

"To those people who consistently claim that the dollar will never be dropped, my response is, it already has been dropped! China, in tandem with other BRIC nations, has been covertly removing the greenback as the primary trade unit through bilateral deals since 2010. First with Russia, and now with the whole of the ASEAN trading bloc and numerous other markets, including Japan. China in particular has been preparing for this eventuality since 2005, when they introduced the first Yuan denominated bonds. The bonds were considered a strange novelty back then, especially because China had so much surplus savings that it seemed outlandish for them to take on treasury debt. Today, the move makes a whole lot more sense. China and the BRIC nations today openly call for a worldwide shift away from the dollar:"

 
After historic downgrade, U.S. must address its chronic debt problems.

"Dagong Global, a fledgling Chinese rating agency, degraded the U.S. treasury bonds late last year, yet its move was met then with a sense of arrogance and cynicism from some Western commentators. Now S&P has proved what its Chinese counterpart has done is nothing but telling the global investors the ugly truth."

The derivatives time bomb lingers over every financial market on the planet. Reforms cannot remove excess and greed, from risk management fiscal contracts. When the largest foreign trading partners look to insulate their transactions from an unstable Dollar currency, the panic has already begun.

It should be self-evident that additional U.S. Treasury bailouts with unlimited Federal Reserve claims against every asset of collateral that can be attached, is obscene in its nature. Hedging is equivalent to reassigning betting risk to unfunded insurance underwriters that would never be able to pay off the claim. Governments are broke by almost any financial standard. Central banksters accumulate titles to real property and assets by hook or crook.

Nation states held hostage to financial manipulation are slaves to the central banks. With the demise of the Dollar, the fake debt obligations of the United States must be repudiated. Foreign states are prepared to sever their links to the Dollar reserve currency, by trading directly in the domestic currencies of other countries. Interacting commerce in Dollars with American companies will continue, but the yoke of Federal Reserve Notes legal tender will be rejected when the derivative meltdown explodes.

James Hall – October 17, 2012

Discuss or comment about this essay on the BATR Forum

Source : http://www.batr.org/negotium/101712.html

http://www.batr.org

"Many seek to become a Syndicated Columnist, while the few strive to be a Vindicated Publisher"

© 2012 Copyright BATR - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014