Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.London House Prices Bubble, Debt Slavery, Crimea 2.0 - Russia Ukraine Annexation - Nadeem_Walayat
2. Gold And Silver – 2014 Coud Be A Yawner; Be Prepared For A Surprise - Michael_Noonan
3.Sheffield, Rotherham Roma Benefits Plague, Ch5 Documentary Gypsies on Benefits & Proud - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Glaring Q.E. Failure Spotted - Money Velocity Is Falling Rapidly - Jim_Willie_CB
5.Don't Miss the Boat on Big Biotech Catalysts: Keith Markey - Keith Markey
6.Gold Prices 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says - David Zeiler
7.Bitcoin Price Strong Appreciation to Be Followed by Declines? - Mike_McAra
8.Gold Preparing to Launch as U.S. Dollar Drops to Key Support - Jason_Hamlin
9.Doctor Doom on the Fiat Money Empire Coming Financial Crisis - Andrew_McKillop
10.The Real Purpose Of QE - It’s Not Employment - Darryl_R_Schoon
Last 72 Hrs
Stock Market Bears Wrong Again, Apple to Push Dow to New All time High - 24th Apr 14
Gold Prepared for the Attack of the Short Sellers - 24th Apr 14
Weak U.S. Housing Data Supports Euro - 24th Apr 14
Killing the Maximum-Wage Myth - 23rd Apr 14
U.S. Quarterly Economic Review - Optimism at the Fed - 23rd Apr 14
Why Mohamed El-Erian Left Pimco - Video - 23rd Apr 14
QE Is A Fraud Perpetrated By Made Men - 23rd Apr 14
Gold and Miners Outperform Once Again - 23rd Apr 14
G-20 and the US Tell the Bank of Japan to End Quantitative Easing - 23rd Apr 14
How to Get in the Trading Game and Profit - 23rd Apr 14
Fed Follies, U.S. Housing Market Fiasco - 23rd Apr 14
What Will December 31, 2014 Financial Headlines Look Like? - 23rd Apr 14
Why Gasoline Prices are Surging Again - 22nd Apr 14
Cold War 2.0 - 22nd Apr 14
The JIS – Junk Ideology Syndrome - 22nd Apr 14
How to Avoid Losing All Your Money - 22nd Apr 14
Silver Up, Stocks S&P Down - 22nd Apr 14
U.S. Mainstream Media Propaganda Setting the Stage for War With Pakistan - 22nd Apr 14
U.S. Interest Rates are NOT Rising! - 22nd Apr 14
A Crisis vs. the REAL Crisis: Keep Your Eye on the Debt Ball - 22nd Apr 14
Bitcoin Implications of Lack of Price Action - 22nd Apr 14
Japan - The Twilight Of The Rising Sun - 22nd Apr 14
Is This What a Credit Bubble Looks Like? - 22nd Apr 14
The Dark Side Of The Silver Mining Industry - 21st Apr 14
Strong U.S. Dollar Rally Could Pull Rug From Under Gold and Silver - 21st Apr 14
Silver Feeble Rally Fails to Hold Breakout, Falling Back Towards Support - 21st Apr 14
Stock Market Smart Money – All Out or More to Go? - 21st Apr 14
Fast Rising Pump Prices Counterattack - 21st Apr 14
Extreme Climate Change And Life On This Planet - 21st Apr 14
Gold and Silver Stocks Sitting Tight - 21st Apr 14
Stock Market Minor Correction Imminent - 21st Apr 14
Gold and Silver - Counting Blessings and Tender Mercies - 20th Apr 14 - Jesse
The CIA Through The Looking-Glass - 20th Apr 14 - Stephen_Merrill
Gold And Silver - Gann, Cardinal Grand Cross, A Mousetrap, And Wrong Expectations - 20th Apr 14 - Michael Noonan
Nikkei Stock Market - Sell Japan - 20th Apr 14 - WavePatternTraders

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Marc Faber, Gold and a Special Picture of Ben Bernanke

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Nov 17, 2012 - 03:30 AM GMT

By: Adrian_Ash

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat Marc Faber said in Hong Kong this week…

YOU ALWAYS get great presentations from the biggest players in gold and silver at the annual London Bullion Market Association conference.

Being in Hong Kong this year, the world's premier event for the bullion industry also got lots of great insights from genuine Asian insiders – ICBC, Kotak Mahindra, the People's Bank of China no less. 


"When the People's Bank speaks it pays to listen," as Tom Kendall of Credit Suisse put it in his conference summary.

"Especially when it talks about gold." 

But the star of the show, at least by popular vote at Tuesday's close, was Swiss ex-pat and long-time Asian resident, Marc Faber. 

If you know his work, you can guess his theme – what doom and gloom mean for the boom in gold. Starting, of course, with the unintended consequences of constant government meddling.

"Continuous interventions by governments with fiscal and monetary measures, instead of smoothing the business cycle, have actually led to greater instability. The short-term fixes of the New-Keynesians have had a very negative impact, particularly in the United States."

Faber's big beef is with US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke. But "numerous Fed members make Mr. Bernanke look like a hawk," he said. Nor does it matter who is running the White House. Because thanks to welfare and military budgets, "spending is out of control, tax is low, and most spending is mandatory."

So Federal Reserve policy is inevitable, Faber went on, and while we haven't yet got the negative interest rates demanded by Fed member Janet Yellen, we have got negative real interest rates. The US and the West had sub-inflation interest rates in the 1970s too, and we got a boom in commodity prices then as well. But with exchange controls now missing from the developed world, "One important point," said Marc Faber:

"Ben Bernanke can drop as many Dollar bills as he likes into this room," he told the LBMA conference in Hong Kong, "but what he doesn't know is what we will do with them. His helicopter drop will not lead to an even increase in all prices. Sometimes it will be commodities, sometimes precious metals, collectibles, wages or financial assets. [More importantly], the doors to this room are not locked. And so money flows out and has an impact elsewhere – not in this room."

That elsewhere has of course been emerging Asia, most notably China (see our video pick of the Top 5 Slides from LBMA 2012 on YouTube for more). But back home, these negative interest rates are forcing people to speculate, to do something with the money, said Faber.

These rates artificially low, well below the 200-year average.

That's doing horrible things to the United States' domestic savings and thus capital investment."You don't become rich by consuming. You need capital formation," said Marc Faber. Unlike investing in a factory to earn profits and repay your loan, "Consumer credit is totally different. You spend it once, and you have merely advanced expenditure from the future."

So far, so typical for the doom-n-gloomster. Noting total US debt at 379% of GDP, "if we included the unfunded liabilities then this chart would jump to the fifth floor of this hotel!" said Faber, waving his red laser pointer at the ceiling. After the private sector "responded rationally" to the runaway 20% credit growth of 20% by collapsing credit in 2007-2009, the US government stepped in to take over – and "Government credit is the most unproductive credit of all."

In short, the easy money and bail-outs which got us here – from the Fed's rescue of Goldman Sachs during the early '80s Tequila Crisis in Mexican debt, through LTCM in the late '90s and then the Tech Stock boom and bust – have had serious consequences. "Bubbles are a disaster from a social point of view," said Faber. Looking at his charts of the generational shift in wealth, it would take a Fed voting member to disagree.

"Only at the Federal Reserve they don't eat or drive!" exclaimed Faber as he turned on the central bank's inflation target, produced by "the Ministry of Truth, the Bureau of Labor Studies. It is a complete fraud." But even as the United States' persistently mistaken policies lead to the emerging powers side-stepping it ("We are in a new world. China's exports to commodity-producing countries – such as Australia and Brazil – are greater than its exports to the United States. Exports from South Korea to commodity-exporting countries are greater than its exports to the US and Europe combined!"), there will come a slowdown in commodity demand and leveling off in prices in time.

"I would rather be long precious metals than industrial commodities," said Marc Faber.

Which was of course what most people at the LBMA conference wanted to hear. Less welcome was his warning not to hold gold in the United States or even Switzerland. Because "if gold is owned by a minority, then in a crisis the government will take it away." But even Faber said that some of his 25% personal allocation to precious metals is still in his home country, rather than in Asia where he's lived for almost 30 years.

Once the deflationary collapse finally arrives (the impossible question is knowing when, said Faber), there will be great opportunities in real and productive assets. But until then, and as for the Gold Price ahead, "Gold is not anywhere close to a bubble stage," he concluded. And every time he thinks about selling to take profit?

"I keep in my toilet a picture of Mr. Bernanke. And every time I think about selling my gold, I look at it and I know better!"

Want more? See the top 5 slides from the conference as chosen by BullionVault...

By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at www.BullionVault.com , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014