Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold – A Look Back, And A Look Forward

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Dec 13, 2012 - 03:24 AM GMT

By: Peter_Degraaf

Commodities

“History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes”, as Mark Twain noted.

Featured is the five year weekly gold chart. The green boxes highlight pullbacks from overbought conditions. The blue boxes show the testing of a breakout from below the 50 week moving average. The green arrows point to the expected upward direction upon the completion of this test.


Featured is the same chart with the focus on the upside breakouts from beneath the 50WMA. The blue arrow points to the last breakout in early 2009. The green line highlights what happened to the gold price upon that breakout. The green arrow points to a similar setup.

“In the absence of the gold standard there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value without gold. This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists versus gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process that stands as a protector of property rights”....Alan Greenspan in 1966.


Featured is the daily gold chart. In its simplest form this chart spells ‘MONEY’. During the last gold bull market gold rose from $35.00 to $850.00for a 24-fold increase. A similar increase from the low point in 2001 ($260.00), sets up a target of $6,240.00.

“Every minute of every day the central bankers of the world print 2 million dollars worth of currency”. ...Jim Grant

Featured is a ’look back’ at a gold chart between 2008 and 2009. The first green arrow points to the record high gold price reached during March of 2008. The blue arrow points to the upside breakout of the 50DMA rising above the 200DMA. The second green arrow points to a new record high price for gold in October of 2009. It took 19 months for the new high price to occur.

“Gold is the soul of all civil life. It can resolve all things to itself and turn itself into all things.” Samuel Butler (British author 1835 – 1902).

Featured is the weekly gold chart for the past two years. The last all-time high price ($1930) happened in August of last year. Moving forward by 19 months (see previous chart), brings us to March 2013. This is not a guarantee that the new high in gold will be reached during March, but the average gold correction of 10% or more has resulted in a delay of 12 – 19 months before a new record high was established.

During the ‘Dot-com’ bull market Nortel rose from pennies to $125; Cisco to 82.00; Yahoo to $127; and Microsoft to $60. All four were based on a ‘concept’. By comparison ‘gold is money!’

This table courtesy Michael J. Kosares show the ‘real rate of return’ of gold since 2002. The first column shows the steady annual increase and the third column shows the rate of increase after the rate of inflation has been deducted.

Gold closing price at last day of the year: 2000 = $274; 2001 = $279; 2002 = $348; 2003 = $416; 2004 $ $439; 2005 = $519; 2006 = $638; 2007 = $838; 2008 = $889; 2009 = $1097; 2010 = $1420; 2011 $ 1566; 2012 (so far $1710).

Happy trading!

By Peter Degraaf

Peter Degraaf is an on-line stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekend report on the markets for his many subscribers. For a sample issue send him an E-mail at itiswell@cogeco.net , or visit his website at www.pdegraaf.com where you will find many long-term charts, as well as an interesting collection of Worthwhile Quotes that make for fascinating reading.

© 2012 Copyright Peter Degraaf - All Rights Reserved

DISCLAIMER: Please do your own due diligence. I am NOT responsible for your trading decisions.

Peter Degraaf Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in