Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Trump Bubble Bursts, Stock Market Panic Dow 1175 Point Crash Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van - Jeff_Berwick
8.Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis - B.R. Hollister
10.Stock Market Analysis: Baying for Blood - Abalgorithm
Last 7 days
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 - 18th Feb 18
Get on Top Of Debt Before It Gets on Top of You - 18th Feb 18
Will the Stock Market Make a Double Bottom? - 18th Feb 18
5 Reasons Why Commodities Are the Investment Place to be in 2018 - 18th Feb 18
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On - 17th Feb 18
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? - 17th Feb 18
Free 1000 Youtube Subscribers Services - YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow Test - 17th Feb 18
How to Trade as We Near March Stock Market Top - 16th Feb 18
Bitcoin as Poison - 16th Feb 18
GDX Gold ETF Weathers Stock Market Selloff - 16th Feb 18
Casino Statistics and Demographics - 16th Feb 18
IS Today Thee Stock Market Turn Day? - 16th Feb 18
Huge SMIGGLE Shopping HAUL, Pencil Cases, Drinks Bottles, Back Packs, Toys.... - 16th Feb 18
Tesla Cash Keeps Burning at $320 a Share - 15th Feb 18
Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets - 15th Feb 18
Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near - 15th Feb 18
Stock Market Out on a Limb... - 15th Feb 18
Things Only a True Friend Would Say About Gold - 14th Feb 18
Global Debt Crisis II Cometh - 14th Feb 18
Understanding Crude Oil Behavior - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market is Getting Scary... - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! - 13th Feb 18
Gold and Silver Long-term Buy, Short-term Sell Signal - 13th Feb 18
SPX Futures Are Sliding... - 13th Feb 18
Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin - 13th Feb 18
Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 - 13th Feb 18
Gold Stocks Groundhog Week - 13th Feb 18
Platinum Looks Poised for Surprising Gains This Year - 12th Feb 18
Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume - 12th Feb 18
The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction - 12th Feb 18
February 2018 Stock Market Crisis – What Next? - 12th Feb 18
How To Profit From The Bitcoin Bloodbath - 12th Feb 18
The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach  - 12th Feb 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 12th Feb 18
What Does the Stock Market Decline Mean for Gold - 12th Feb 18
Addicted to SMIGGLE Mega Review, Pencil Cases, Stationary, Back Packs, Drinking Bottles, Toys... - 12th Feb 18
Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - 11th Feb 18
The Fed’s Impossible Choice, In Three Charts - 11th Feb 18
US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop - 11th Feb 18
After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” - 11th Feb 18
How to Grow Tomatoes From Seeds, Homegrown Organic Money Saving Gardening - 11th Feb 18
Youtube KILLS ALL Small Channels with New DeMonetization Rules - 11th Feb 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Gold – A Look Back, And A Look Forward

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Dec 13, 2012 - 03:24 AM GMT

By: Peter_Degraaf

Commodities

“History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes”, as Mark Twain noted.

Featured is the five year weekly gold chart. The green boxes highlight pullbacks from overbought conditions. The blue boxes show the testing of a breakout from below the 50 week moving average. The green arrows point to the expected upward direction upon the completion of this test.


Featured is the same chart with the focus on the upside breakouts from beneath the 50WMA. The blue arrow points to the last breakout in early 2009. The green line highlights what happened to the gold price upon that breakout. The green arrow points to a similar setup.

“In the absence of the gold standard there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value without gold. This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists versus gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process that stands as a protector of property rights”....Alan Greenspan in 1966.


Featured is the daily gold chart. In its simplest form this chart spells ‘MONEY’. During the last gold bull market gold rose from $35.00 to $850.00for a 24-fold increase. A similar increase from the low point in 2001 ($260.00), sets up a target of $6,240.00.

“Every minute of every day the central bankers of the world print 2 million dollars worth of currency”. ...Jim Grant

Featured is a ’look back’ at a gold chart between 2008 and 2009. The first green arrow points to the record high gold price reached during March of 2008. The blue arrow points to the upside breakout of the 50DMA rising above the 200DMA. The second green arrow points to a new record high price for gold in October of 2009. It took 19 months for the new high price to occur.

“Gold is the soul of all civil life. It can resolve all things to itself and turn itself into all things.” Samuel Butler (British author 1835 – 1902).

Featured is the weekly gold chart for the past two years. The last all-time high price ($1930) happened in August of last year. Moving forward by 19 months (see previous chart), brings us to March 2013. This is not a guarantee that the new high in gold will be reached during March, but the average gold correction of 10% or more has resulted in a delay of 12 – 19 months before a new record high was established.

During the ‘Dot-com’ bull market Nortel rose from pennies to $125; Cisco to 82.00; Yahoo to $127; and Microsoft to $60. All four were based on a ‘concept’. By comparison ‘gold is money!’

This table courtesy Michael J. Kosares show the ‘real rate of return’ of gold since 2002. The first column shows the steady annual increase and the third column shows the rate of increase after the rate of inflation has been deducted.

Gold closing price at last day of the year: 2000 = $274; 2001 = $279; 2002 = $348; 2003 = $416; 2004 $ $439; 2005 = $519; 2006 = $638; 2007 = $838; 2008 = $889; 2009 = $1097; 2010 = $1420; 2011 $ 1566; 2012 (so far $1710).

Happy trading!

By Peter Degraaf

Peter Degraaf is an on-line stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekend report on the markets for his many subscribers. For a sample issue send him an E-mail at itiswell@cogeco.net , or visit his website at www.pdegraaf.com where you will find many long-term charts, as well as an interesting collection of Worthwhile Quotes that make for fascinating reading.

© 2012 Copyright Peter Degraaf - All Rights Reserved

DISCLAIMER: Please do your own due diligence. I am NOT responsible for your trading decisions.

Peter Degraaf Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules