Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Spain Ignores Scotland Lesson as Catalan Independence Referendum Could Spark Civil War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Used Car Buying From UK Dealer Top Tips, CarMotion.co.uk Real Customer Experience - N_Walayat
3.Spanish New Civil War Begins as Madrid Regime Storm Troopers Quell Catalan Independence Rebellion - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Virgin Media Broadband Down, Catastrophic UK Wide Failure! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Are the US Markets setting up for an Early October Surprise? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.The Pension Storm Is Coming To Europe—It May Be The End Of Europe As We Know It -John_Mauldin
7.Stock Market Crash 2018; Will it Prove to be Another Buying Opportunity - Sol_Palha
8.The Profoundly Personal Impact Of The National Debt On Our Retirements - Dan_Amerman
9.Stock Market as Good as it Gets; Like 2000 With a Twist -Gary_Tanashian
10.1987 Stock Market Crash 30th Anniversary Greatest Investing Lesson Learned - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Debt-Driven Consumer Economy Breaking Down - 23rd Oct 17
Next Wall Street Stock Market Crash Looms? Lessons On Anniversary Of 1987 Crash - 23rd Oct 17
This Super Metal Is Set To Soar By 300% - 23rd Oct 17
More New Record Highs As S&P 500 Gets Closer To 2,600 Mark - 23rd Oct 17
Another Minor Stock Market Top? - 23rd Oct 17
Bitcoin Hits $6,000, $100 Billion Market Cap As Helicopter Ben and Jamie Demon Warn The End Is Near! - 22nd Oct 17
Time for Caution in Gold Miners - 22nd Oct 17
“Great Rotation” Ahead; Will it Be Inflationary or Deflationary? - 21st Oct 17
The Trigger for Volatility, Rates and the Next Crisis - 21st Oct 17
Perks to Consider an Agent for Auto Insurance - 21st Oct 17
Emerging Megatrends Hurting Consumers - 21st Oct 17
A Catalyst of the Stock Market Bubble Bust - 21st Oct 17
Silver Stocks Comatose - 21st Oct 17
Stock Investors Ignore What May Be The Biggest Policy Error In History - 20th Oct 17
Gold Up 74% Since Last Stock Market Peak 10 Years Ago - 20th Oct 17
Labour Sheffield City Council Employs Army of Spy's to Track Down Tree Campaigners / Felling's Watchers - 20th Oct 17
Stock Market Calm Before The Storm - 20th Oct 17
GOLD Price Creates Bullish Higher Low - 20th Oct 17
Here’s the US’s Biggest Vulnerability in NAFTA Negotiations - 20th Oct 17
The Greatest Investing Lesson Learned from the 1987 Stock Market Crash - 20th Oct 17
Stock Market Time to Go All-in. Short, That Is - 19th Oct 17
How Gold Bullion Protects From Conflict And War - 19th Oct 17
Stock Market Super Cycle Wave C May Have Started - 19th Oct 17
Negative Expectations, Will the Stock Market Correct? - 19th Oct 17
Knowing the Factors Affect your Car Insurance Premium - 19th Oct 17
Getting Your Feet Wet In Crypto Currencies - 19th Oct 17
10 Years Ago Today a Stocks Bear Market Started - 19th Oct 17
1987 Stock Market Crash 30th Anniversary Greatest Investing Lesson Learned - 19th Oct 17
Virgin Media Broadband Down, Catastrophic UK Wide Failure! - 19th Oct 17
The Passive Investing Bubble May Trigger A Massive Exodus from Stocks - 18th Oct 17
Gold Is In A Dangerous Spot - 18th Oct 17
History Says Global Debt Levels Will Lead to Another Crisis - 18th Oct 17
Deflation Basics Series: The Quantity Theory of Money - 18th Oct 17
Attractive European Countries for Foreign Investors - 18th Oct 17
Financial Transcription Services – What investors should know about them - 18th Oct 17
Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures - 18th Oct 17
Surge in UK Race Hate Crimes, Micro-Racism, Sheffield, Millhouses Park, Black on Asian - 18th Oct 17
Comfortably Numb: Surviving the Assault on Silver - 17th Oct 17
Are Amey Street Tree Felling's Devaluing Sheffield House Prices? - 17th Oct 17
12 Real-Life Techniques That Will Make You a Better Trader Now - 17th Oct 17
Warren Buffett Predicting Dow One Million - Being Bold Or Overly Cautious? - 17th Oct 17
Globalization is Poverty - 17th Oct 17
Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government - 16th Oct 17
Stock Market Trading Dow Theory - 16th Oct 17
Stocks Slightly Higher as They Set New Record Highs - 16th Oct 17
Why is Big Data is so Important for Casino Player Acquisition and Retention - 16th Oct 17
How Investors Can Play The Bitcoin Boom - 16th Oct 17
Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief - And Why It Matters  - 16th Oct 17
Stock Market Only Minor Top Ahead - 16th Oct 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 16th Oct 17
Really Bad Ideas - The Fed Should Have And Defend An Inflation Target - 16th Oct 17
The Bullish Chartology for Gold - 15th Oct 17
Wikileaks Mocking US Government Over Bitcoin Shows Why There Is No Stopping Bitcoin - 15th Oct 17
How to Wipe Out Puerto Rico's Debt Without Hurting Bondholders - 15th Oct 17
Gold And Silver – Think Prices Are Manipulated? Look In The Mirror! - 15th Oct 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

Desperately Seeking A Gold Cycle Low

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 21, 2012 - 09:31 AM GMT

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Commodities

A Dollar in decline, a 3 Year Cycle Top, and a “Dollar pummeling into the New Year” all sound wonderful for Gold. Ordinarily of course gold would be rocketing from here as the dollar collapses. For gold to drop this far while the dollar collapses is only masking the true severity of the precious metal decline.

As for the gold Cycle, we officially have to contend with remarking our Cycles to better understand what the market is doing. Remember that Cycles are the true interpretation of what the asset has done, there is no ambiguity, a Cycle by its very definition can never be wrong. The fault lies with the Cyclists, the analyst who attempt to predict the movement of the asset by predicting the type of Cycle we’re going to experience based on pasted evidence.


For this Cycle, clearly the Investor Cycle Low needs to be pushed back to accommodate Gold that is still heading lower. There is just no chance that Nov marked an ICL and therefore I’m forced to look at the next logical Cycle point and work from that point forward. Beginning with the Daily Cycle (which has not changed), we’re either on Day 33 and about to find a DCL or we’re on Day 9 with a good 2 weeks of declines still ahead of us. Technically we’re oversold to the point where this could be Day 33. But on the flip side, this must be the tail end of the Investor Cycle and we know the end of an IC can be an extremely punishing event. By that I mean do not look at the oversold level here and automatically assume a DCL must be coming.

Basically because we’re now on Week 18 of this newly marked Investor Cycle, we know that these 4th and 5th Daily Cycles can run short and are often extremely Left Translated. The low that occurred 9 days ago marked a top which occurred on FOMC day. It was a top on a day where major gold bearing policy (QE4) was announced which also saw massive buying and then selling volume. That day was a classic reversal day, it was a “Cycle changing” event, and I firmly believe that this event cannot be ignored when one marks the pivots of the Cycles.

Looking at the weekly chart with a whole new lens now is extremely important. Now that we’re in at least the 4th Daily Cycle and approaching an ICL, we’re back in the business of looking for the conditions that would signal an ICL. Namely, some of the conditions we’re looking for are a deep and bruising sell-off that pushes through Bollinger bands, both on the Daily and Weekly charts. An RSI(5) weekly level well under 30, but preferably below 20. Sentiment levels that match prior ICL’s and a much more favorable COT report. Confirmation of a Cycle Low would come beyond that point with a trend line recovery, a Daily and Weekly Swing Low, and a general recovery in our underlying technical indicators.

The point is that you must transition the mindset from being bullish and seeking to recover any trading losses immediately, to one where we are preserving capital and waiting for the best and most logical new entry point. It’s very easy to enter a phase of denial, please try to acknowledge that the Cycle has broken down and the chart is bearish. Moves down to ICL’s are very dangerous events, there is just no telling how far Gold/Silver can or will drop during the final 10 trading days of a decline.

We should also take note that there appears to have been a significant shift in the market here. Something has changed that is not yet visible in real time, but one that will probably be very clear in hindsight. My gut feeling or opinion is that this bull market is throwing off a major red herring here. I find this action to be very peculiar and quiet honestly “I smell a rat”. I don’t buy this weakness when we have a massive QE4, a dropping dollar, a seemingly coordinate barrage of selling, an assault of negative media/news, analyst downgrades, and bearish newsletter publishers. I believe this newly marked Cycle is fast headed to a major Cycle Low that could be just days away. I feel we’re on the verge of a massive new move higher, but something tells me to watch out, that this Bull has some unfinished and sinister moves to the downside left. I take nothing for granted and when you look at all past bull markets you will see that they are capable of some very amazing moves.

This as is an excerpt from the Wednesday’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly, as well as real time trade alerts to profit from market inefficiencies. They offer a FREE 15-day trial where you’ll receive complete access to the entire site. Coupon code (ZEN) saves you 15%.

Source - http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-price-news/desperately-seeking-a-gold-cycle-low/

© 2012 Copyright goldsilverworlds - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife