Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market Continues Defying Gravity, Dow New All Time High - Nadeem_Walayat
2.America Superpower 2016 - Ian Bremmer
3.The US Dollar and the Precious Metals Complex - Rambus_Chartology
4.UK Immigration Crisis Could Prompt BREXIT, Propelling Britain Out of EU Despite German Factor - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The “Real Flash Crash” Will Scare You to Death - Shah Gilani
6.Gold Price Trend Forecast - Bob_Louka
7.UK Deflation Warning - Bank of England Economic Propaganda to Print and Inflate Debt - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold Lifeboat to Global Economies “Titanic Problem” Warn HSBC - GoldCore
9.Will Interest Rates Ever Rise? - BATR
10.Who’s Killing the Stock Market? - Shah Gilani
Last 5 days
Stock Market Choppy Uptrend May Have Topped - 30th May 15
Options Pricing - Covert Gamma, Portfolio Insurance, and STDs - 30th May 15
U.S. Crude Oil Production Sets New Modern Record - 30th May 15
Gold Still Waiting - 30th May 15
Investing’s Great Struggle - 29th May 15
How Rich Countries Get Rich - Freedom, Global Poverty, and the Failure of Foreign Aid - 29th May 15
Goldman Sachs Warns “Too Much Debt” Threatens World Economy - 29th May 15
Skunk Works Engineers Supersonic Profits - 29th May 15
Gold, Silver and US Dollar Strength - 29th May 15
This New Currency Could Wipe Out the Euro - 28th May 15
US Housing Market - Something Smells Fishy - 28th May 15
US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend - 28th May 15
U.S. Fed Exported QE Travesty: Meet The BLICS Nations - 28th May 15
World War D—Deflation - Secular Bear Markets Analysis - 28th May 15
George Soros Warns of “Third World War” - 28th May 15
Why You Shouldn't Try to Invest Like Warren Buffett - 28th May 15
Stock Markets Buy and Hold is Back! - 28th May 15
We're Now Frighteningly Vulnerable to a Bond Market Crash - 28th May 15
Austerity, Economics and Religion - 28th May 15
National Holidays London and the Magic of Legoland UK Review - 27th May 15
Imminent Stocks Bear Market Signaled by Dow Theory ... - 27th May 15
Gold Price Has Bottomed – More Evidence - 27th May 15
Three Reasons You Shouldn’t Try to Invest Like Warren Buffett - 27th May 15
Gold Is “100% Guarantee from Legal and Political Risks” States Russian Central Bank - 27th May 15
Don't Drown in the Sea of Global Debt - 27th May 15
Three Reasons Why Carl Icahn Is Wrong About Apple Stock - 27th May 15
Crude Oil Price Stochastic Signals - 26th May 15
Why the Stock Market Will Crash - 26th May 15
GDP, Inflation, Employment Economic Statistics: It’s All a Lie - 26th May 15
Introduction to Peak Food - 26th May 15
Should We Dump the Euro? - 26th May 15
A Geopolitical Net Assessment of Europe - 26th May 15
Stock Market Top in Place? - 26th May 15
Best Cash ISA SBI 2.3% - 2.8 Year Fix, UK Interest Rates 2016 - 26th May 15
China Sets Up Gold Bullion Fund For Central Banks - 25th May 15
Is The Silver Trade Getting Crowded? - 25th May 15
Money Murder Mystery: Who Killed the Stock Market? - 25th May 15
Why Do We Celebrate Rising U.S. House Prices? - 24th May 15
Mario Draghi’s Slippery Downward Slope - 24th May 15
Gold : Truth is Stranger than Fiction - 24th May 15
Facebook Stock Price Forecast - 24th May 15
Make a Killing on the Coming Energy "Debt Bubble" - 24th May 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Biggest Debt Bomb in History

Desperately Seeking A Gold Cycle Low

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 21, 2012 - 09:31 AM GMT

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Commodities

A Dollar in decline, a 3 Year Cycle Top, and a “Dollar pummeling into the New Year” all sound wonderful for Gold. Ordinarily of course gold would be rocketing from here as the dollar collapses. For gold to drop this far while the dollar collapses is only masking the true severity of the precious metal decline.

As for the gold Cycle, we officially have to contend with remarking our Cycles to better understand what the market is doing. Remember that Cycles are the true interpretation of what the asset has done, there is no ambiguity, a Cycle by its very definition can never be wrong. The fault lies with the Cyclists, the analyst who attempt to predict the movement of the asset by predicting the type of Cycle we’re going to experience based on pasted evidence.


For this Cycle, clearly the Investor Cycle Low needs to be pushed back to accommodate Gold that is still heading lower. There is just no chance that Nov marked an ICL and therefore I’m forced to look at the next logical Cycle point and work from that point forward. Beginning with the Daily Cycle (which has not changed), we’re either on Day 33 and about to find a DCL or we’re on Day 9 with a good 2 weeks of declines still ahead of us. Technically we’re oversold to the point where this could be Day 33. But on the flip side, this must be the tail end of the Investor Cycle and we know the end of an IC can be an extremely punishing event. By that I mean do not look at the oversold level here and automatically assume a DCL must be coming.

Basically because we’re now on Week 18 of this newly marked Investor Cycle, we know that these 4th and 5th Daily Cycles can run short and are often extremely Left Translated. The low that occurred 9 days ago marked a top which occurred on FOMC day. It was a top on a day where major gold bearing policy (QE4) was announced which also saw massive buying and then selling volume. That day was a classic reversal day, it was a “Cycle changing” event, and I firmly believe that this event cannot be ignored when one marks the pivots of the Cycles.

Looking at the weekly chart with a whole new lens now is extremely important. Now that we’re in at least the 4th Daily Cycle and approaching an ICL, we’re back in the business of looking for the conditions that would signal an ICL. Namely, some of the conditions we’re looking for are a deep and bruising sell-off that pushes through Bollinger bands, both on the Daily and Weekly charts. An RSI(5) weekly level well under 30, but preferably below 20. Sentiment levels that match prior ICL’s and a much more favorable COT report. Confirmation of a Cycle Low would come beyond that point with a trend line recovery, a Daily and Weekly Swing Low, and a general recovery in our underlying technical indicators.

The point is that you must transition the mindset from being bullish and seeking to recover any trading losses immediately, to one where we are preserving capital and waiting for the best and most logical new entry point. It’s very easy to enter a phase of denial, please try to acknowledge that the Cycle has broken down and the chart is bearish. Moves down to ICL’s are very dangerous events, there is just no telling how far Gold/Silver can or will drop during the final 10 trading days of a decline.

We should also take note that there appears to have been a significant shift in the market here. Something has changed that is not yet visible in real time, but one that will probably be very clear in hindsight. My gut feeling or opinion is that this bull market is throwing off a major red herring here. I find this action to be very peculiar and quiet honestly “I smell a rat”. I don’t buy this weakness when we have a massive QE4, a dropping dollar, a seemingly coordinate barrage of selling, an assault of negative media/news, analyst downgrades, and bearish newsletter publishers. I believe this newly marked Cycle is fast headed to a major Cycle Low that could be just days away. I feel we’re on the verge of a massive new move higher, but something tells me to watch out, that this Bull has some unfinished and sinister moves to the downside left. I take nothing for granted and when you look at all past bull markets you will see that they are capable of some very amazing moves.

This as is an excerpt from the Wednesday’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly, as well as real time trade alerts to profit from market inefficiencies. They offer a FREE 15-day trial where you’ll receive complete access to the entire site. Coupon code (ZEN) saves you 15%.

Source - http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-price-news/desperately-seeking-a-gold-cycle-low/

© 2012 Copyright goldsilverworlds - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History