Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Desperately Seeking A Gold Cycle Low

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 21, 2012 - 09:31 AM GMT

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Commodities

A Dollar in decline, a 3 Year Cycle Top, and a “Dollar pummeling into the New Year” all sound wonderful for Gold. Ordinarily of course gold would be rocketing from here as the dollar collapses. For gold to drop this far while the dollar collapses is only masking the true severity of the precious metal decline.

As for the gold Cycle, we officially have to contend with remarking our Cycles to better understand what the market is doing. Remember that Cycles are the true interpretation of what the asset has done, there is no ambiguity, a Cycle by its very definition can never be wrong. The fault lies with the Cyclists, the analyst who attempt to predict the movement of the asset by predicting the type of Cycle we’re going to experience based on pasted evidence.


For this Cycle, clearly the Investor Cycle Low needs to be pushed back to accommodate Gold that is still heading lower. There is just no chance that Nov marked an ICL and therefore I’m forced to look at the next logical Cycle point and work from that point forward. Beginning with the Daily Cycle (which has not changed), we’re either on Day 33 and about to find a DCL or we’re on Day 9 with a good 2 weeks of declines still ahead of us. Technically we’re oversold to the point where this could be Day 33. But on the flip side, this must be the tail end of the Investor Cycle and we know the end of an IC can be an extremely punishing event. By that I mean do not look at the oversold level here and automatically assume a DCL must be coming.

Basically because we’re now on Week 18 of this newly marked Investor Cycle, we know that these 4th and 5th Daily Cycles can run short and are often extremely Left Translated. The low that occurred 9 days ago marked a top which occurred on FOMC day. It was a top on a day where major gold bearing policy (QE4) was announced which also saw massive buying and then selling volume. That day was a classic reversal day, it was a “Cycle changing” event, and I firmly believe that this event cannot be ignored when one marks the pivots of the Cycles.

Looking at the weekly chart with a whole new lens now is extremely important. Now that we’re in at least the 4th Daily Cycle and approaching an ICL, we’re back in the business of looking for the conditions that would signal an ICL. Namely, some of the conditions we’re looking for are a deep and bruising sell-off that pushes through Bollinger bands, both on the Daily and Weekly charts. An RSI(5) weekly level well under 30, but preferably below 20. Sentiment levels that match prior ICL’s and a much more favorable COT report. Confirmation of a Cycle Low would come beyond that point with a trend line recovery, a Daily and Weekly Swing Low, and a general recovery in our underlying technical indicators.

The point is that you must transition the mindset from being bullish and seeking to recover any trading losses immediately, to one where we are preserving capital and waiting for the best and most logical new entry point. It’s very easy to enter a phase of denial, please try to acknowledge that the Cycle has broken down and the chart is bearish. Moves down to ICL’s are very dangerous events, there is just no telling how far Gold/Silver can or will drop during the final 10 trading days of a decline.

We should also take note that there appears to have been a significant shift in the market here. Something has changed that is not yet visible in real time, but one that will probably be very clear in hindsight. My gut feeling or opinion is that this bull market is throwing off a major red herring here. I find this action to be very peculiar and quiet honestly “I smell a rat”. I don’t buy this weakness when we have a massive QE4, a dropping dollar, a seemingly coordinate barrage of selling, an assault of negative media/news, analyst downgrades, and bearish newsletter publishers. I believe this newly marked Cycle is fast headed to a major Cycle Low that could be just days away. I feel we’re on the verge of a massive new move higher, but something tells me to watch out, that this Bull has some unfinished and sinister moves to the downside left. I take nothing for granted and when you look at all past bull markets you will see that they are capable of some very amazing moves.

This as is an excerpt from the Wednesday’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly, as well as real time trade alerts to profit from market inefficiencies. They offer a FREE 15-day trial where you’ll receive complete access to the entire site. Coupon code (ZEN) saves you 15%.

Source - http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-price-news/desperately-seeking-a-gold-cycle-low/

© 2012 Copyright goldsilverworlds - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules