Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Target of USD 2,300 - GoldCore
2.Greece Banking System Collapse Monday as ECB Pulls the Plug, Capital Controls Ahead of GrExit - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Why British Muslims Are Leaving Elysium Paradise for Syrian Hell - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Extreme Gold/Silver Shorting - Zeal_LLC
6.European Empire Strikes Back Against Greek Debt Fantasy, Counting Down to GREXIT - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold And Silver – Three Choices: Sell, Hold, Hold and Add. A Trading Treatise - Michael_Noonan
8.Gold and Silver Price Headed for Breakdown - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
9.Greece Crisis OXI - Raul_I_Meijer
10.Flatline Investing and Dead End Debt Schemes - Doug_Wakefield
Last 5 days
Greece Referendum Vote Result Forecast Yes Win, But Depression Will Continue - 5th July 15
The Great Greek Economic Depression - 4th July 15
Happy 4th of July Stock Market Analysis - 4th July 15
The Most Pressing Reason Yet You Want to Avoid Investing in Retail Stocks - 4th July 15
Fed’s Full Normalization and the Stock Market - 3rd July 15
The U.S. Dollar's 2014-2015 Rally: Wave 3 in Action - 3rd July 15
Stock Market Where are we? And where are we Going? - 3rd July 15
Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Key to China’s Prospects - 3rd July 15
How the New Iranian Nuclear Deal Will Impact Crude Oil - 3rd July 15
China's Stock Market Rollercoaster Ride Continues - 3rd July 15
Gold Stocks Cheap to Buy but Not for Long - 3rd July 15
Capital Controls and a Bank Holiday in Greece… Here’s How You Can Profit - 3rd July 15
Greece's Varoufakis: I will Resign if there's a 'Yes' Vote - 2nd July 15
The Student Loan Bubble: Gambling with America’s Future - 2nd July 15
Inflation Is Lurking, but This Asset Can Protect You - 2nd July 15
Three Total Wealth Stock Investor Tactics You’ll Need Because Greece Isn’t Over - 2nd July 15
Why This $5.6 Trillion Investor Profit Boom Is Set To Take Off - 2nd July 15
Greek Debt Crisis: "Too late to prepare now" - Video - 2nd July 15
Guaranteed US Dollar Death Dynamics - 2nd July 15
The Greek Stress Test & The Reality Of Incremental Changes - 2nd July 15
Forget Drachmas Greece Syriza Government Could Instruct Central Bank to Print Euros! - 2nd July 15
Greece Debt Crisis Trigger for Stock Market Crash or Bull Rally? Video - 1st July 15
Gold Stocks Break Below 2008 Low - 1st July 15
SPX Stock Market Retracement May be Over - 1st July 15
Silver Tunnel Vision 'Experts' - 1st July 15
Gold And Silver - Monthly, Quarterly Ending Analysis - 1st July 15
Europe’s Controlled Demolition - 1st July 15
The End of Dow 18,000; Bailouts No Longer Extended  - 1st July 15
Athens Mayor: Greek Government Should Resign - 1st July 15
China Stocks - This Is What a Bubble Looks Like - 30th June 15
Stocks Plunge on Greece Euro-Zone Financial Armageddon Blackmail - 30th June 15
Greece Crisis Shows Importance of Gold as Europeans Buy Coins and Bars - 30th June 15
Stock Investors Express Route to Profits in the Healthcare Sector - 30th June 15
Beyond the Greek Impasse - 30th June 15
Gold GDXJ : Impulse Move Pending - 30th June 15
Fed Interest Rate Increase Could Be Best Thing to Happen to Gold - 30th June 15
Marc Faber - Greece is Basically Bankrupt - 30th June 15
Greece - Shoot the Dog and Sell the Farm - 29th June 15
Grexit?, BIS Warning, Chinese Market Crash & Systemic Risk Shake the Global Economy - 29th June 15
The New "Sharing Economy" May Not Be the Profit Bonanza Everyone's Expecting - 29th June 15
Gold and Silver Greece and Short Positions - 29th June 15
Volatility and Sleep-Walking Markets - 29th June 15
Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - 29th June 15
Stock Market More Decline Ahead? - 29th June 15
China Stock Market Crackup - The Final Trap Looms... - 29th June 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

China Stocks - Where are they going?

Desperately Seeking A Gold Cycle Low

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 21, 2012 - 09:31 AM GMT

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Commodities

A Dollar in decline, a 3 Year Cycle Top, and a “Dollar pummeling into the New Year” all sound wonderful for Gold. Ordinarily of course gold would be rocketing from here as the dollar collapses. For gold to drop this far while the dollar collapses is only masking the true severity of the precious metal decline.

As for the gold Cycle, we officially have to contend with remarking our Cycles to better understand what the market is doing. Remember that Cycles are the true interpretation of what the asset has done, there is no ambiguity, a Cycle by its very definition can never be wrong. The fault lies with the Cyclists, the analyst who attempt to predict the movement of the asset by predicting the type of Cycle we’re going to experience based on pasted evidence.


For this Cycle, clearly the Investor Cycle Low needs to be pushed back to accommodate Gold that is still heading lower. There is just no chance that Nov marked an ICL and therefore I’m forced to look at the next logical Cycle point and work from that point forward. Beginning with the Daily Cycle (which has not changed), we’re either on Day 33 and about to find a DCL or we’re on Day 9 with a good 2 weeks of declines still ahead of us. Technically we’re oversold to the point where this could be Day 33. But on the flip side, this must be the tail end of the Investor Cycle and we know the end of an IC can be an extremely punishing event. By that I mean do not look at the oversold level here and automatically assume a DCL must be coming.

Basically because we’re now on Week 18 of this newly marked Investor Cycle, we know that these 4th and 5th Daily Cycles can run short and are often extremely Left Translated. The low that occurred 9 days ago marked a top which occurred on FOMC day. It was a top on a day where major gold bearing policy (QE4) was announced which also saw massive buying and then selling volume. That day was a classic reversal day, it was a “Cycle changing” event, and I firmly believe that this event cannot be ignored when one marks the pivots of the Cycles.

Looking at the weekly chart with a whole new lens now is extremely important. Now that we’re in at least the 4th Daily Cycle and approaching an ICL, we’re back in the business of looking for the conditions that would signal an ICL. Namely, some of the conditions we’re looking for are a deep and bruising sell-off that pushes through Bollinger bands, both on the Daily and Weekly charts. An RSI(5) weekly level well under 30, but preferably below 20. Sentiment levels that match prior ICL’s and a much more favorable COT report. Confirmation of a Cycle Low would come beyond that point with a trend line recovery, a Daily and Weekly Swing Low, and a general recovery in our underlying technical indicators.

The point is that you must transition the mindset from being bullish and seeking to recover any trading losses immediately, to one where we are preserving capital and waiting for the best and most logical new entry point. It’s very easy to enter a phase of denial, please try to acknowledge that the Cycle has broken down and the chart is bearish. Moves down to ICL’s are very dangerous events, there is just no telling how far Gold/Silver can or will drop during the final 10 trading days of a decline.

We should also take note that there appears to have been a significant shift in the market here. Something has changed that is not yet visible in real time, but one that will probably be very clear in hindsight. My gut feeling or opinion is that this bull market is throwing off a major red herring here. I find this action to be very peculiar and quiet honestly “I smell a rat”. I don’t buy this weakness when we have a massive QE4, a dropping dollar, a seemingly coordinate barrage of selling, an assault of negative media/news, analyst downgrades, and bearish newsletter publishers. I believe this newly marked Cycle is fast headed to a major Cycle Low that could be just days away. I feel we’re on the verge of a massive new move higher, but something tells me to watch out, that this Bull has some unfinished and sinister moves to the downside left. I take nothing for granted and when you look at all past bull markets you will see that they are capable of some very amazing moves.

This as is an excerpt from the Wednesday’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly, as well as real time trade alerts to profit from market inefficiencies. They offer a FREE 15-day trial where you’ll receive complete access to the entire site. Coupon code (ZEN) saves you 15%.

Source - http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-price-news/desperately-seeking-a-gold-cycle-low/

© 2012 Copyright goldsilverworlds - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History