Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17
Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017 - 21st Apr 17
Why Stock Market Investors May Soon Be In For A Rude Awakening - 21st Apr 17
Median US Household’s Wealth Has Declined by 40% Since 2007 - 21st Apr 17
Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefit - 21st Apr 17
U.S. Stock Market and Gold, Post Tomahawks and MOAB - 21st Apr 17
An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex - 20th Apr 17
The Real Story of China’s Strong First-Quarter Growth - 20th Apr 17
3 Types Of Life-Changing Crisis That Make You Wish You Had Some Gold - 20th Apr 17
The Truth is a Dangerous Thing - 20th Apr 17
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia - 20th Apr 17
Gold’s Next Downside Target Is Around $700… Even if It Breaks Up First - 19th Apr 17
SPX May be Completing its Corrective Pattern - 19th Apr 17
Silver Production Has “Huge Decline” In 2nd Largest Producer Peru - 19th Apr 17
Soothing East Asia's Nerves as Trump's Administration Reaffirms US Power in Asia-Pacific - 19th Apr 17
The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called - Let the Games Begin! - 19th Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Gold from the Non U.S. Dollar Perspective

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Dec 21, 2012 - 10:52 AM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Commodities

This was a week of declines for precious metals, very strong ones, indeed. It seems that the main culprit was not the U.S. dollar, that should have actually helped the whole sector, as it declined heavily too, but the fears concerning the “fiscal cliff”, that we discussed some time ago, and the lack of any solutions from the government so far. We believe that as soon as the problem is solved, the whole sector will rally strongly. That is even more likely, as gold and silver are currently extremely oversold, as we’ll see in the technical part of this essay. To see the true magnitude of the plunge, and try to guess where we can go from this point, we’ll have a look at the yellow metal from the perspective of different currencies. But first things first – we’ll start with the usual long-term chart of gold priced in USD (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)


In the chart, we see that prices have moved below the important 300-day moving average (the blue slope in our chart). If prices close the week below this level, which appears likely, then we will have an increased probability of significant declines. If prices do move much lower, it will be a huge buying opportunity and the RSI levels around 40 confirm this. Many times in the past, major bottoms have been seen with the RSI level near 40.

Having seen how the situation looks from the U.S. perspective, let us move on to the first chart of gold priced in other currency, namely in the Canadian Dollar.

In this chart, we see gold’s price has just moved a bit below the long-term resistance line. The move has not yet been confirmed. This type of price move has not been seen since late 2008 but with RSI levels extremely oversold, the bottom seems either to be in already or at least very close.

Now, let’s have a look at the yellow metal from the perspective of the Australian Dollar.

Here, the extremely low values for the RSI are a somewhat bullish sign. This value level has only been seen a few times in past years and each marked a major bottom in gold priced in the Australian dollars.

This is a very long-term chart so a few more days of declines will make little difference. It seems that a medium-term bottom is quite close or perhaps already in.

To finish off, let’s take a peek at gold priced in euro.

Once again, extremely oversold RSI levels are present in the chart, as they have moved below 30 and are approaching 20 for this ratio. This has not been seen for many years. Gold priced in euro also moved below its rising support line, but this breakdown has not been confirmed, so little weight is placed on this move. It is a bearish development, however.

Before summarizing, here’s the question about gold that we received this week along with our reply:

This positive correlation with the dollar is beyond strange and highly unnerving. Is this an indication of some fundamental change in gold?  It almost seems impossible. Any light you could shed on why gold now tracks the dollar's every move would be greatly appreciated. This seems to negate the purpose we entered the PM market in the first place.

We doubt that it's some kind of fundamental change in gold. Why could this be the case fundamentally? Possibly Europeans could be thinking that the worst is over and that the European economy is going to improve in the coming months and are now selling their gold to get back euros. Technically speaking, gold priced in euro is correcting significantly.

The most important thing is to check if we have ever seen anything like this during this bull market or if this is something completely new. And this is precisely what we do when looking at the gold:XEU ratio or gold priced in the euro. There have been times when gold declined along with the dollar and this resulted in sharp declines in the ratio and moves lower in the momentum indicators that are based on it, such as the RSI Indicator. The situation is now extreme and history tells us that the relationship is likely to return to normal very soon.

Another thing that is somewhat related to gold from the non-USD perspective is the SP Gold Bottom Indicator - especially the long-term version. The moment when the indicator moves below its signal line generally corresponds to extremes in the gold-USD link. The indicator is about to flash a buy signal, but it was not yet the case. The suggestion here is that the simultaneous decline in gold and the dollar might to be over just yet.

Summing up, the situation for gold has deteriorated this week. Multiple signals on many charts show the situation to be extremely oversold in the short term, especially from a non-USD perspective. A local bottom is probably close, however, given this week’s volatility and the fact that in general oversold assets could become more oversold on a short-term basis before the price trend reverses, we could see additional weakness in the price of gold.

Use the following link to sign up for a free, no-obligation trial of our Premium Service and read the complete version of this study that is over 10 times bigger. You’ll also receive Market Alerts on a daily basis and when the trial expires, you’ll start receiving our free newsletter. Additionally, you will also receive 12 gold best practice emails.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife