Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Odds of Winning Walkers Crisps Spell & Go olidays K, C and D Letters - Sami_Walayat
3.Massive Silver Price Rally During The Coming US Dollar Collapse - Hubert_Moolman
4.Pope Francis Calls For Worldwide Communist Government - Jeff_Berwick
5.EU Referendum Opinion Polls Neck and Neck Despite Operation Fear, Support BrExit Campaign - Nadeem_Walayat
6.David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before - Mike Gleason
7.British Pound Soars on BrExit Hopes Despite Remain Establishment Fear Mongering - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold Price Possible $200 Rally - Bob_Loukas
9.The Federal Reserve is Not Going To Raise Interest Rates and Destroy Gold - Michael_Swanson
10.Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
Free Silver
Last 7 days
EU REMAIN Population Forecasts - England 4.1 million Explosion, London Migration Crisis - 28th May 16
A Guide to the Trump-Sanders Debate - 28th May 16
Gold And Silver – At Significant Support. New “Story” Developing - 28th May 16
The Next Systemic Lehman Event - New Scheiss Dollar & Gold Trade Standard - 27th May 16
Energy and Debt Crisis Point to Much Higher Silver, Metals Prices - 27th May 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q1 2016 Fundamentals - 27th May 16
These Crisis Markets Are Primed to Deliver Big Gains, Platinum Never Cheaper! - 27th May 16
Operation Black Vote BrExit Warning for the Wrong EU Referendum - 27th May 16
UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Extreme, Catastrophic ONS Migration Stats Ahead of EU Referendum - 27th May 16
Many of the World’s Best Investors Made Their Fortunes This Way…And You Can Too - 27th May 16
The Ugly Truth About Stock Market Manipulation and Gold Prices - 27th May 16
Gold Price Looking Vulnerable While Gold Stocks Correct - 27th May 16
The 5 Fatal Flaws of Trading - 27th May 16
The Next Big Crash Of The U.S. Economy Is Coming, Here’s Why - 27th May 16
A New Golden Bull or Has the Market Gone Too Far Too Fast? - 27th May 16
It Feels Like Inflation - 26th May 16
Negative Interest Rates Set to Propel the Dow Jones to the Stratosphere? - 26th May 16
S&P Significant Low has Occurred – Not Likely! - 26th May 16
Statistics for Funeral Planning in UK Grave - 26th May 16
Think Beyond Oil And Gold: Interview With Mike 'Mish' Shedlock - 26th May 16
Hard Times and False Mainstream Media Narratives - 26th May 16
Will The Swiss Guarantee 75,000 CHF For Every Family? - 26th May 16
Is There A Stocks Bear Market in Progress? - 26th May 16
Billionaires Are Wrong on Gold - 26th May 16
How NOT to Invest in the Gold Market - 26th May 16
The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas - 26th May 16
U.S. Household Debt Still Below 2008 Peak - 25th May 16
Brexit: Wrong Discussion, Wrong People, Wrong Arguments - 25th May 16
SPX is at Strong Resistance - 25th May 16
US Dollar, Back From the Grave? - 25th May 16
Gold : Just the Facts Ma’am - 25th May 16
The Worst Urban Crisis in History Could be Upon Us - 24th May 16
Death Crosses Across The Board Are IRREFUTABLE Stock Market Sell Signals - 24th May 16
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Price Stays below $450 - 24th May 16
Stock Market Crash Death Cross Doom Prevails - 23rd May 16
Did AMAT Chirp? Implications for the Economy and Gold - 23rd May 16
Stocks Extended Their Rebound On Friday - Will They Continue Higher? - 23rd May 16
UK Treasury Propaganda Warns of 3.6% Brexit Recession, the £64 Billion Question? - 23rd May 16
Stock Market Support Breached, But Not Broken! - 23rd May 16
George Osborne Warns of 18% Cheaper House Prices - BrExit for First Time Buyers - 22nd May 16
Gold Bull-Phase I Continues to Confound (The Trek to “Known Values”) - 22nd May 16 r
Avoiding a War in Space - 22nd May 16
Will Venezuela Be Forced to Embrace the US Dollar? - 21st May 16
Danish Central Bank Stumbles with Its Currency Peg to the Euro - 21st May 16
SPX Downtrend Underway - 21st May 16
George Osborne Warns of More Affordable UK Housing Market if BrExit Happens - 21st May 16
Gold And Silver 11th Hour: Globalists 10 v People 0 - 21st May 16
David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before - 21st May 16
Gold Stocks Following Bull Analogs - 20th May 16
The Gold Chart That Has Central Banks Extremely Worried - 20th May 16
Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals - 20th May 16
Stock Market Rally At the End of the Road? - 20th May 16
British Pound Soars on BrExit Hopes Despite Remain Establishment Fear Mongering - 20th May 16
NASDAQ 100, FTSE, and British Pound - When Rare Market Data Screams, Listen  - 20th May 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Silver is a Low Risk Buy Now!

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 27, 2012 - 04:08 AM GMT

By: Bob_Clark

Commodities

Is this a great time to be buying the metals?
The fundamental analysts have good reasons why it should go up. Then again, they have good reasons why it should go down as well. For example a financial regime change in Japan points up. The financial cliff and debt ceiling issues in the USA points down.  


I think this is a good time to buy the metals but it has nothing to do with fundamentals. Well, not unless you call manipulation a fundamental, which I suppose it is.  It is fundamental to how the world banking system is run.

There is profit for us in manipulation
To get a good yearly print on the charts, each year at this time the agents of the world bankers hammer down the price of the metals. This is because one of the primary inflation indicators is the price of gold and silver.  If the agents of the world banks, namely the Fat Boys, can sell short and then drive the price down at the end of the year, there is no inflation.  If while doing so, they make a large profit, there is no government official going to call that manipulation.

This manipulation creates a very simple trading opportunity that has a good chance of success.  On top of that, the risk reward ratio is favorable too.
 
This year is particularly interesting because this is the second year in a row that silver has closed at this price.  So there is no inflation. Not in silver anyway. Gold is a little higher but not enough to matter.

No Fundamental reason to buy
I am going to recommend a trade that has nothing to do with fundamentals.

It has to do with probabilities. When we look at the chart below we see that this decline has happened every year in the last four.  What a surprise. Now look what happens after this yearly decline.

There is another thing that we see on the chart. We should be making a 4 year cycle low. The metals have an 8 year cycle, low to low and we are halfway through it. There tends to be a low at halfway points like this.

Maybe I should not have put that in because it has nothing to do with this trade and may make us too bullish. Still it is a good reference because usually after making a low like the 4 year, the market goes to a new high to make the top of the larger cycle, which in this case is the 8 year cycle. 

Patience
There is one other thing that needs to be observed. This is not always the low time.  It has bottomed now in the past but we see that it has at times, made the low closer to the end of January.

How to do it
Ok, so we want to buy this sell off but how do we do it safely? If we buy it now, we may go down until the end of January, or worse.  Maybe we collapse. Never to rally again. Maybe, maybe not.

I have projections lower. Down to the 25 to 26 level and it can go there in the New Year, so we need a trading technique that keeps us safe.

I have a simple strategy that will let us buy this, using a relatively tight stop loss to protect our capital if it doesn’t work.
I will wait for a weekly bar to go above a previous weekly bar. Then I will buy. At the same time as I buy, I will put a sell order (called a stop loss) under the low of the decline to that point.  I have marked similar entries in previous years.

First time lucky
We see instances where we may have gotten in too high and too early.

We also see that even after a failed first attempt, the second entry yielded substantially higher returns than was lost on the first.  

We accept small losses as part of doing business.  This is a good, simple way to preserve capital, while capturing a great opportunity like this.

It is still a little high and if we are patient, we will be less likely to be a victim of a false start.  A smaller weekly range usually precedes a turn, that weekly bar is our risk, so a small bar is best.

Once in, when do we sell? That is your choice. Either stay in until we break to new highs for the 8 year cycle, or sell at the end of March, or April. That is the seasonal high time.

Change your life
I can teach you how to use the Fat Boy’s algorithms. (The algorithms are not cycles.)

I have taught fund managers, floor traders to be more profitable. I have taught pipe fitters and farmers to trade professionally.  It does not matter what your education, or background is.  When you learn way the Fat Boy’s computers control the markets,  you will be able to join them instead of being their victim.

I teach in a step by step, easy to understand way.  Get my videos, or better yet, take my full course. I have never had a failed student and I guarantee my training works.
You are either with them, or a victim.

Bob Clark is a professional trader with over twenty years experience, he also provides real time online trading instruction, publishes a daily email trading advisory and maintains a web blog at www.winningtradingtactics.blogspot.com  his email is linesbot@gmail.com.

© 2012 Copyright Bob Clark - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife